The intraday count today worked out wave-for-wave until the very last bar of the futures session. This can be verified by checking yesterdays comments, and the charts posted. Still, Central Banks are meeting tomorrow & for the rest of the week, and the possibility of a stimulus deal grows. That means there is a risk of exceeding the current all-time-high. Should that occur, it would alter the daily chart slightly, as follows.
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| ES Futures - Daily Close - ALT if High Exceeded |
Should we go over the high again, it likely means the whole wave up from November is a 'longer-in-time' Minor A wave still within the Intermediate (Y) wave. This might help give a more proportional look to the (Y) zigzag, because a B wave down and C wave up, would yet be needed to follow. Further, it is one of the few ways I can see to maintain degree labeling if the high is exceeded.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Update on 30 min -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39py6.png
Thanks TJ and GW. I sold a lot today. Negative divergences and frothy sentiment, will wait for pullback.
DeleteOn chart above, RSI has now broken the upward TL. This would be an early TL break alert (for like break on price).
Deletewelcome TimH :o)
Further note, with trend still up, will have to watch for possible positive HDs as RSI retraces. These would suggest revisiting the peak in between lows.
DeleteSpx cash - a = c = 3711 area. Might get you a double top or it’s going to break out.
DeleteExactly this is just A/Y, as I wrote it is impossible that this zig-zag is the whole Y because size and length are not comparable at all with W - clear degree violation.
ReplyDeleteI will explain the same with Hurst cycles btw every EW guy should learn cycles this will reduce a lot the wrong counts:
The previous high February.2020 was at important 18 month cycle high.
The pattern from the March low will be completed at the next 18 month cycle high, which is late March or first half of April.
The EW patterns are completed always at cycle lows and highs, which is well visible on the chart above.
One 18 month cycle consists of four 20 week cycles and here we go - 20 week high for A/W, 20 week low for B/W, 40 week high for W, what follows is 40 week low for X. Now we are at 20 week high for A/Y next is 20 week low for B/Y and final fourth 20 week high for C/Y to complete 18 month high and the move from the March low.
At the end you have two waves from the March low with roughly the same length 5 months, which are comparable.
There is NO way that we have pattern high in the middle of nowhere at the third 20 week cycle.
Cycles working hand in hand with EW showing the same from different angels.
P.S. 20 week length is the nominal Hurst model. Cycles for the US indices run shorter especially high to high so when you count the weeks you will see something between 14-18 instead of 20.
I am unsure how you allow slight discrepancy in time cycle length but do not allow any possibility of pattern high "in the middle of nowhere." Adding to that, you add that cycle lengths differ from index to index, stock to stock. Reminds me of Jim Sloman's Delta Phenomenon with trying to fit the theory to the market asset by asset and with wiggle room to spare too. It was also time cycle based.
DeleteThere is no discrepancy - cycles vary they are not fix. This is the way it works.
DeleteI am so sure that I can bet my life on that. Wait and watch what will happen in the next months.
I keep an open mind so I will do more research into Hurst.
Deletehi krasi
ReplyDeleteaccording to your cycles when is the next big drop?
Currently expected around late March or April when the next 18 month high is hit and should last for roughly two months for 18 month low.
Deletebig drop
ReplyDeleteDXY and EURUSD have likely completed the impulse wave counting with new highs/lows. Looks very healthy, especially on Fed day.
ReplyDeleteUpdate on 4hr -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39qn3.png
Hello all - just a reminder than the US Federal Reserve FOMC meeting decision will be at the top of the hour followed by a press conference at 14:30 EST.
ReplyDeleteTJ
..while waiting, here is a look at the NQ futures 4-hr chart. The ES looks nothing like this.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6R6d6RhB/
TJ
I will have my eyes on currencies at that time. I used to trade on the massive instant volatility banks unleash on the 1min chart during these events, the whiplash where you fade the slight higher high or lower low on the day, into a deep reversal. But I am not as risky, young, and agile in my trading anymore. Those were the days! I will watch it only with equally as much pleasure.
DeleteGL to all and happy holidays. TJ - could you do a write up on perhaps how your EW philosophy ties in with trading strategy during one of the market holidays? Such as, what time frame may best fit your trading style (or investing style) to operate on before making further moves, etc. Rules to operate on. Just an idea...you post enough great quality content as it is so I can't expect much more from you. Cheers
NQ futures have gone over the 6 Dec high on the 4-hr chart shown earlier. This confirms a fifth wave in progress in this channel.
ReplyDeleteTJ
I did not get an answer several days ago about the discrepancy between ES and SPY Dec10-11. Pricing got unhinged.
ReplyDeleteWell, today SPY made a new high but not SPX or ES so I would like to look closer into this. Schroedinger would be proud. TJ, thoughts on how this discrepancy affects wave count?
..possible "B" wave discrepancy? See the next day's post.
DeleteThe B wave still looks good, so it only concerns smaller degree labeling for the tickers that got a new high today (SPY) vs the ones that didn't (SPX & ES). Cheers
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete