The Big Boys (or Smart Money) left their tracks all over the ES futures today. Overnight, prices were sinking lower on lower share prices in Europe - due supposedly to a new strain of Covid virus. In the chart, below, that drove prices down about -120 points from Friday's close, and pierced the lower daily Bollinger Band.
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| ES Futures - 1 Day - Outside Key Reversal Day |
In the process the smaller daily wedge (dashed lines) was clearly broken, the amount of price travel exceeded that of any downward wave inside the wedge, save the very first one, and an outside key-reversal day down was registered.
Of course, if the so-called 'Smart Money' comes out of the lower daily band, they did so quite assertively and ran prices back above the 'line-in-the-sand' or the 18-day SMA, preventing the daily price bias from turning lower. Further, depending on your quotes the daily slow stochastic may, or may not have lost the 80 level. TradingView shows it as not being lost, other software shows it lost.
The usual caveat applies to the outside-day down: if it's high is taken out within two trading sessions then it constitutes a trap for the bears.
From an Elliott Wave perspective, a downward count is a little strained. While the downward wave 'could be' impulsive, it doesn't yet have a clean impulsive look to it. And, at the end of the day, there was pretty close to a 78.6% retrace in the futures.
If prices go over the high, today could be a better Minor B wave within Intermediate (Y). This refers to the alternate count previously posted. Since this could happen with light holiday volume, an economic news report, a Brexit deal, or some other news story, I have turned from negative to 'flexible' on this market until we see if today's low exceeded.
Have an excellent start to your week, or to your winter holiday if you have started it.
TraderJoe
Was the 378.46 on spy a data error?
ReplyDeleteI don't really know how or why it does this normally. What I see is a lot of volume on that 1 min candle. On my chart, that cnalde closed at 367.46. a "double" fat finger trade could have been to the keys to the right, 3*78*.46. asterick for emphasis. Why it would have been a trade filled so far outside, I don't know. The market is historically illiquid though. Hope someone has a better answer than I do.
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DeleteIt could be one institution trading with itself, between left and right buckets.
Delete👍 we might be setting up a H&S pattern SPX cash 60 min.
ReplyDeleteI've wondered if it's more reliable if the close is below the previous day low.
ReplyDeleteAlong with island reversal gaps they now almost seem to mean the exact opposite oc what they once did. One could reasonably conclude that the regularity with which they are being negated is not fortuitous. There are many other examples, shooting stars, spinning tops, dojis,evening stars, hangman doji,as well as other truly remarkable, and sometimes unprecedented technical anomalies, like extended stays above upper B band. The popping of this bubble is going to be equally epic.Someone has referred to them as Franken-Markets. If the megaphone pattern plays out, it will be quite painful for those on the wrong side of Mr.Market....
ReplyDeleteGood morning all. Here is the intraday wave counting screen, updated with Daily Pivot Points (Classic Calculation)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t81h9
Possibility exists for a wave ii at the high, or possibly a "B" wave Xmas triangle for the holidays, and a further up move can not be ruled out. Taking out yesterday's low or high is the primary thing that might help distinguish one from the other. It's also 'possible' the pattern up from the lows is a contracting diagonal, but the 'length in time' of the fourth wave being so much longer than the second wave - with the overlap - seems to put that pattern in last place. Possible, but lower odds.
TJ
TJ what's your take on this YM count?
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t832m
It's just a variant of the one I showed in "Don't Worry Baby", but without the supporting details. In mine, I show how the five minute waves of Minor C are counted.
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/12/dont-worry-baby.html
TJ
ES 30-min, two more local fractals now, as the intraday Bollinger Bands have tightened.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t83tt
TJ
..first down fractal back has broken lower.
Delete..then down to daily PP, and a bounce there.
DeleteBounced off the main trendline, let's see if it holds in the next 2 hours. https://www.tradingview.com/x/g8VPfncW/
DeleteSPX channel testing...
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ly8xWRu2/
ES 30-min now has another fractal at the morning low.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t854j
TJ
Thoughts on the hrly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/39ybm.png
ES 30-min, now have a valid fractal at the prior local high.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/t86fk
Sure 'feeling' like a possible triangle or diagonal.
TJ
There is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete