With reference to yesterday's post and chart of the daily ES, here is an ES 1-hour chart for more clarity on how the Minor B wave might develop. As far as I can tell, there were only three-waves down from the Minor A wave. The downward wave does not look like a good impulse.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - Minor B |
That means the Minor B wave might be a triangle, a flat or an expanded flat (if price heads over the high again). Having only three waves down means it might be prone to do so. So, we have to try to count upward with the trend until we can no longer do so.
There was a slight higher high today, so it can be the ((A)) wave of a larger w-x-y three wave complex correction for minute ((b)) wave of Minor B. Again, it is acceptable for the y wave to go over the prior high.
A triangle is also sketched in on the chart as the proportions are not that bad at just over 78.6%. Exceeding the x wave low would likely favor the triangle instead of the flat or expanded flat.
With regard to today's ((A)) wave upward, the futures had made an acceptable "five up" before the cash market ever opened. Therefore, the ((B)) wave of this sequence may also be a smaller degree expanded flat. The proportions work out nicely, and there was overlap on the 05:00 EST candle where the 'five-up' ended. I'm showing the ((A)) at the high for charting convenience only.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
👍 looks good.
ReplyDeleteThere's a nice neckline lurking at 3634.
ReplyDeleteThanks Chris and Happy Holidays.
DeleteWith the gap below the H&S this may become a guillotine top!
Joe thanks
ReplyDeleteHappy holidays
Would a new low enable a count of expanding diagonal off all time high?
Hi marc .. same to you! Regarding a downward diagonal, 'possible-but-less-likely' due to the fact that the up wave from the 20th is already more complicated than a simple zigzag. So, I'm counting up with the trend, until that should not become possible. Cheers.
DeleteUpdate to today's 15min chart -
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Small HD did not develop. RSI now just above midline.
DeleteA look at the current 4hr -
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Finally!
ReplyDeleteA Brexit trade deal at last: EU and UK clinch narrow accord
Et, happy winter holydays, and thank you for trying to decipher and help us understand the market waves. Keep healthy.
ReplyDeleteTHx 6Q .. you too!
DeleteHappy Holidays Joe! Happy Holidays to everyone!
ReplyDeleteThe very same to you, Bill!
DeleteBroke trend line (however little importance of value) in SPX
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QrpKOU09/
False break of trend line, with gusto!
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZVvFhmon/
ES 30-min, so from a time standpoint, the current location of the 'x'; wave is 55 bars long. If there is to be a smaller degree ((B)) wave, it should more than likely take less time than the larger degree 'x'. So far, this is OK. If for some reason, it doesn't take less time, then, most likely the whole sideways move should probably be considered as 'x'.
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TJ
..according to these quotes, now over the former 'quasi-triangle' high.
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TJ
..now it's a question of whether 3,680 'sticks' over the weekend or not.
DeleteTJ
Hello TJ,
ReplyDeleteBeen following your blog and happy holidays to you. I wanted to know does the cash index have to make a high above 3716 to complete the B wave.
Hi Chitown.. and welcome to the comments. I think you are mis-understanding, the Minor B wave of a flat would make a lower low than 3,596 low of 20 Dec. The minute ((b)) wave of B, upward, of B, if the 3,596 low was the minute ((a)) wave down, 'must' make the 90% level back to 3,716 to make a flat wave. But that minute ((b)) wave can go as far as 138% over the 3,716 high, before the minute ((c)) wave, down, would make a new low below 3,596.
DeleteHope it helps.
TJ
Merry Christmas to all!
ReplyDeleteObservations on weekly DJI -
https://funkyimg.com/i/39BnL.png
Thanks for your work GW. & TJ. Merry Christmas to everyone.
DeleteObservations on weekly HYG -
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ET - thanks for all of your help. Any update on the progress of your book? I can't wait to read it!
ReplyDeleteI'll leave this ratio analysis to the "eye of the beholder"- (if interested)
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A lesson in mean reversion? IWM weekly -
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It’s climbing El Capitan free style. I hope it’s got a parachute.
DeleteRegarding WMT weekly -
ReplyDeleteRD (Aug/Nov RSI peaks)
Just missed HD target at 152+
Early TL break on RSI (from Mar/June/Oct lows)
ES 1-Hr.. in the first attempt tonight price has tried to get much closer to the 90% retrace level (shown). This 'tends' to make a regular triangle less likely, and to make the flat or expanded flat more likely.
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TJ
ES 1 -Hr; President signs stimulus & gov't funding bill, sending prices over the needed 90% level for a flat.
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Expanded flat also possible if price goes over 105%. (At this point a barrier triangle is also a 'weak' option. Seems less likely given the shallow downward retrace levels.)
TJ
ES 1-Hr, the new high eliminates the invalidation below 'x'.
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TJ
ES 5-min; well it certainly looks and acts like a thrust from an overnight triangle.
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TJ
On the candlestick chart, the EMA34 was breach on ES by a smidgin but it was weak (as opposed to the line chart which did not reflect this). Could this have been the minor B? It was not similar to any past dip below the EMA34 but the compression we are experiencing lead to question the possibility of the 12/21 dip.
DeleteNQ at new ATH. The expanded flat is certainly one of Mr. Market's most potent weapons for luring hapless participants to the wrong side of the market. The new C wave high cements "bullishy" sentiment. With price now above round numbers the set-up is ideal for a top to become evident by the character of the initial wave down. If my thesis is correct, both 3700 and 3600 will be swiftly breached after a top is in.
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ, cash Spx at upper BB. Daily. Also we are hitting upper TL. on multiple time frames. The megaphone TL. has scary possibilities.
ReplyDelete5min look -
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ReplyDeleteCurious move around upper daily BB, and maybe an ED.
ES Futures 1-hr; the futures did reach the 105% level of the prior high, meaning they can now qualify for an expanded flat minute ((b)) wave of Minor B, even if they do not go on to make the 138% level. See chart below.
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They could indeed can go on to that level, but that might be by triple zigzag instead of just the double zigzag. There is some downward overlap in this last upward wave of y, so lower lows need to begin to be watched for.
TJ
👍 thanks TJ. Vix up today and not confirming Spx new high.
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