In yesterday's post we said there could be a new high. That was because yesterday's down wave after the new high was not very substantial. Further, we could see the possibility for a structure like an ending diagonal or a sloppier B wave.
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| ES Futures - 1 Hr - New High? |
If a new high is made it could be the beginning of a frustrating ending diagonal wave within the minute wave ((c)) shown yesterday. The a-b-c would be to minuet wave (i), and there would be a relatively deep wave (ii). Such a diagonal might occur on hourly and 4-hrly MACD divergences. Or it might just end a sloppier B wave.
If the new high is not made, then the pattern may have ended at the 'a' wave shown as minute ((c)). At this point we are counting with the trend until we can no longer. Still, we have shown a trend line to watch for a break and/or back-test and failure.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
TJ you mentioned the interesting 3666 number last post. SPX bottomed at 666.8 last decade. Of course, the current ATH is actually 3678.5. I was taken by my curiosity so I did this:
ReplyDelete3678.5 / 666.8 = 5.5166466706
2*Φ + 1 = 4.236067977 (fib extension)
3*Φ + 2 = 6.864101966 (fib extension)
The average of these two fib extensions = 5.5500849715 (logarithmic mean is 5.44478710643).
I do not much weight into these higher fib #s, arbitrary or not. It is not wise to dive too deep into number beauty where there is no depth. I believe the fibonacci ratio is a beautiful thing in the market and in nature, but like in nature, it appears bountifully in the market. No need to rush to conclusions to make the math look pretty prematurely...just thought I'd share.
Nice TVA,
ReplyDeleteAlso, Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence Model is built on 8.6 and that minus Pi equals 5.46.
What resources do you suggest for learning and observing this model?
DeleteJust google/bing martin armstrong economic confidence model
DeleteJust curious if you had any specific. If I lose money following his model, will he be held accountable for my losses and be arrested again? :)
DeleteLoL, it's more effective to use salt and stops:-(
DeleteUpdate to 4hr chart. Things are tightening up.
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/396VT.png
Basis this contract, I'm showing new high.
DeleteThanks GW
DeleteThe 23.6% extension above the range from the Feb high to Mar low is 3686.25
The 23.6% extension above the range from 9/23 low of 3198 to 9/2 high of 3587 is 3678.80.
So far, less than 1 point from today's high.
👍 great work GW
DeleteThks. One note on chart. In RSI section, says "still in strongly bearish range" - S/B still in strongly bullish range. :o)
DeleteGood morning all. Just fyi - ES has a higher hourly high, on a MACD divergence, and a wedge shape currently.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lYzURUWB/
TJ
EURUSD hit .786 retrace (and a bit more) from 2018 highs today. DXY and SPX moving opposite each other intraday...
DeleteBut look at the monthly EURUSD downtrend line across the highs from 2008 and 2014.
DeleteLooks like some substantial repatriation into the Euro
When it comes to the Eur/USD and the USD, I prefer to work less by generalization and more by measurement. This parallel and a longer middle wave are still on the board.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZQdxa0nZ/
TJ
Thanks TJ
Deleteyw ..TO
DeleteES 1-hr might be viewed as 'done'. Waiting for confirmation is sometimes a very good idea.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1jnxrq4o/
TJ
..ES now below wave (iv).
DeleteEOD down move looks impulsive...headlines "PFIZER CUT COVID VACCINE ROLLOUT TARGET ON SUPPLY-CHAIN OBSTACLES- "
ReplyDelete@tva..thanks for the news; much appreciated. Good work!
DeleteES 1-min .. three-waves up, and a 90% wave down, so far. Possible Flat or double-zigzag to extend the time, or next impulse.
ReplyDeleteTJ