First of the Month Money

Continuing with the theme of our posts over the last couple of days, it should be pretty apparent that a lot of today's 40+ point gain in the cash S&P500 index was fueled in large part by the 'first of the month' money, some of which is automatically or semi-automatically committed to the market by dividend roll-overs, automatic payroll deposits in 401k accounts, etc. Much of this money is not "wave count driven". It occurs irrespective of the wave count. It does what it does. On occasion people might intervene in the decisions, but to some extent this phenomenon is on 'auto-pilot'. Today, it helped make a marginal higher high, which might enter into a wave count in this manner.

ES Futures - 4 Hrs - 5-3-5 Wave

The marginal higher high provides some confidence that there has been a 5-3-5 wave upward. This could be a larger B wave within a downward (X) wave. It could also be the (Y), wave, upward. The lack of retracement is astonishing, yet the detailed count suggests there 'could' be one more higher high within this pattern, so the pattern itself would not break until the lower blue trend line of the pattern is undercut as the first stage in confirmation, back-tested and fails as the second stage in confirmation, and until the minute ((b)) wave is exceeded, lower, as the third stage in confirmation.

This is one ugly pattern, made predominately in the overnight. Today's start of a downward movement did nothing to disrupt upward counting. It was quite small.

Today, we also showed our count that - like the inverse of the US Dollar being in a five-down pattern - the EurUSD futures are in a five-up pattern, as below.

EurUSD (6E) Futures - Daily - Into Five Up

It is astonishing to see so many people on-line count this incorrectly. Some are operating professional newsletter services; some are professional people 'running' money, and publishing YouTube Elliott Wave Tutorial videos. Others are more of the amateur bent and publishing their videos for the price of subscriptions, etc. Uh, I just decided to wait to publish anything until I could see if the wave essentially followed The Eight Fold Path Methodology - which you are aware of via this site for free. Oh well, maybe sometimes you don't get what you pay for??!! All I can tell you, is after this one, I fired one popular newsletter subscription service. They have been getting it wrong too often, and their timing has been terrible - their wave counts filled with errors. They tend to ignore degree labeling. They have also gotten the stock market wrong.

Bye-bye. One less distraction to worry about. Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe