Waiting for Further Overlap

In the charts below, the Russell 2000 Futures (on the left) have already overlapped their likely minute ((a)) wave, up. We are likely still waiting on the ES E-mini S&P500 Futures (on the right).

Russell 2000 vs ES E-Mini Futures - 4 Hr - Downward Overlap

In the Russell, the overlap categorically rules out a fourth wave. If five-waves down are completed successfully, then a retrace would not be expected to go over the high. It is not 'impossible' to go over the high, but it would involve making the current wave a larger "b" wave flat, and then starting a minute ((c)) cycle to the upside again. That is a 'reasonable' alternate for those seeking such. I have it clearly listed as an alternate because I can find very little way to do that and maintain degree labeling at this time.

While the later scenario is 'possible' is gets less and less likely the longer the ES daily slow stochastic stays below the 80 level. It is getting very likely that in the short run prices will try to tag the 18-day SMA on the daily ES futures.

Have a good start to your evening.

TraderJoe