Wednesday, June 12, 2019

Still Below the Pivot Line

Prices are still below the daily up trend line (or pivot line) shown below. If you were expecting a rally today, there wasn't much of one - just a lot of compression in prices.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Still Below Pivot Line


We have seen compression days like this in both directions, both up & down as shown at the arrows. In some sense today's lower close could be considered to confirm the prior daily bearish engulfing candle - but not solidly. So, it still might be useful to watch the overnight futures for some short term clues.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
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48 comments:

  1. marcJune 12, 2019 at 11:04 PM

    closed your gap joe

    ReplyDelete
  2. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 8:22 AM

    Overnight market may be working on the c:5 wave upward; targets about 2,900.

    https://invst.ly/b05g2

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. marcJune 13, 2019 at 8:36 AM

      whats the star - first wave doesnt start at low? thanks

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    2. Erik BJune 13, 2019 at 8:46 AM

      Likely truncation

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    3. marcJune 13, 2019 at 8:55 AM

      note how it allows the 0-2 TL to work.
      the first impulse down is looking more like a leg of a corrective structure down rather than the first impulse of a 5 wave impulse down, especially given the need to "end" the second wave with a c-wave with a handy truncation. So just maybe the market knew it had to truncate in order to build a proper impulse but if it knew it had to build an impulse why truncate?

      Delete
    4. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 9:33 AM

      There was some overnight news about oil tankers possibly being hit which dramatically drove up oil. The large bars down appeared to be the third wave of C; figured the star was just a truncated fourth and fifth of C down of the larger (b).

      Delete
    5. marcJune 13, 2019 at 10:06 AM

      thanks joe

      Delete
  3. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 9:44 AM

    There's the new higher high.

    https://invst.ly/b06jl

    TJ

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  4. TJJune 13, 2019 at 9:49 AM

    Good Morning TJ. Several of us seem to be interested in your thoughts of a longer term road map given the run up since Dec lows. It's good to learn how to count (and man I'm learning a lot, and getting humbled) however, the end objective is still to apply to count for trading and investing purposes. It helps to have a sight of the longer term primary and alternative expectations to avoid missing the forest for the trees.

    Thanks

    -TJ

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  5. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 10:05 AM

    Overnight futures now have downward overlap. Usual drill: triangle, diagonal or 'done'.

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 10:09 AM

      'done' appears to be the answer.

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 10:26 AM

      And expanding ending diagonal make have worked, as shown in red.

      https://invst.ly/b0794

      TJ

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    3. marcJune 13, 2019 at 10:53 AM

      well done

      Delete
  6. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 11:06 AM

    Below 2883.25 ES would qualify for expanding diagonal downward on the 1-min. Then maybe a bit of a retrace.

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 11:07 AM

      Market just qualified for the expanding diagonal, lower. 'Five waves down'.

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    2. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 11:12 AM

      The bulls are being stubborn; or they 'don't get it'; one or the other. Right now they 'want' to believe the FED is coming to the rescue.

      https://invst.ly/b07vl

      TJ

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 11:25 AM

      There's "three waves up" - at least - and counting. That is, "three could become five" and make a larger correction, up. Price 'could' even go over the top again. If so, the downward diagonal was 'c' of iv in cash, until or unless there is downward overlap on 2,880. I do view that level as an 'important' level, and a break of it will likely start to send prices lower. That's all for me today on the very short term.

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    4. marcJune 13, 2019 at 12:12 PM

      except the 4 overlapped 1 perhaps
      did you mean iv of c?
      or are you saying we have 3 up since low and its an impulse from june low?

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 12:15 PM

      talking about this morning only.

      Delete
  7. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 12:16 PM

    The upper diagonal trend line has been breached - as is common in a diagonal retrace. Only thing that matters now, is whether high is exceeded or not.

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  8. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 12:32 PM

    Here is the ES 30-minute chart with current extent of the Fibonacci retrace, and the latest valid fractals on this time frame.

    https://invst.ly/b08ua

    TJ

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  9. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 1:13 PM

    I count a-b-c up from this morning's low, so far.

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  10. TJJune 13, 2019 at 1:18 PM

    the bull is insane, i just know they're gonna exceed the high

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  11. TJJune 13, 2019 at 1:25 PM

    From a fundamental perspective I just can't rationalize yields and oil diving, gold going up, but equities remain flat to rising.

    ReplyDelete
  12. TJJune 13, 2019 at 1:27 PM

    The answer is rate cut hopes, but I think the Fed doesn't cut unless equities are lower (i.e. save their ammunition for when it's needed)

    ReplyDelete
  13. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 2:17 PM

    The ES 30-min chart just added a second 'up' or green fractal - as follows.

    https://invst.ly/b09we

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 2:18 PM

      And lots of downward overlap now with the up waves from mid-morning.

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    2. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 2:36 PM

      Now below the 'b' wave, of the a-b-c up since mid-morning.

      Delete
  14. marcJune 13, 2019 at 2:34 PM

    i see an abc down, then an impulse up, then the overlap correcting the impulse

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  15. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 2:50 PM

    Since cash and futures have a different extreme low (from this morning), here is a possibility in cash if they want to "hide the wave 2" for a day or so. This is a very, very bearish pattern. Only the 'y' part would be the triangle which is why it might go on for another day. Otherwise, if we plunge, then y ended at this morning's high as a 'double-combination'.

    https://invst.ly/b0a4l

    TJ

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  16. LBJJune 13, 2019 at 3:12 PM

    Target for wave 3 is 2840 level?? Correct? Also gab at 2843. Thx

    ReplyDelete
  17. Elliott_TraderJune 13, 2019 at 4:16 PM

    All current 30-min ES futures fractals were still in tact as of the settlement. But it was close. It needs to be watched carefully. If the market wants, it can extend to the 0.618 retrace, or more.

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  18. Erik BJune 13, 2019 at 4:37 PM

    Es futures will morph into WXY with another impulse? Abc from 2867 = Y?

    ReplyDelete
  19. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 9:44 AM

    Futures did retrace to nearer the 0.618 retrace, upward, last night, then reversed and took out the mid-morning lows. Now they have taken out the overnight lows.

    ReplyDelete
  20. BBRiderJune 14, 2019 at 10:29 AM

    This would be the spot for d this morning.

    https://imgur.com/KKEkZHS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 12:59 PM

      Something seems wrong about the downward triangle idea. I know what EWI thinks. But triangles don't have flat tops unless they are barrier triangles, and their triangle does not have good trend lines at the top. What if it's just a double zigzag upward? Current up wave 'can' be counted as a "five".

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/LoMh5usU/

      TJ

      Delete
  21. marcJune 14, 2019 at 12:09 PM

    joe
    on cash
    using quick 0-2 TL
    i now see 2 failures for 2nd waves up in a bearish count, which makes sense if big drop imminent. do you see that?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 1:05 PM

      I do see the candles you are referring to.

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    2. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 2:10 PM

      If those candles get taken out higher, we just continue in the S&P cash triangle Y wave I highlighted yesterday/above.

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    3. marcJune 14, 2019 at 2:27 PM

      thanks

      Delete
  22. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 3:18 PM

    Here's an update on the potential W-X-Y (triangle) for a wave 2.

    https://invst.ly/b0ncx

    Best alternate might be a) triple zigzag, b) ending diagonal c wave of flat.

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  23. Erik BJune 14, 2019 at 3:28 PM

    This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Erik BJune 14, 2019 at 3:29 PM

      how about this:
      https://invst.ly/b0neu

      Delete
    2. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 3:31 PM

      Yes, could be, if the triangle busts.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderJune 14, 2019 at 3:40 PM

      Triangle should not have a flat upper side - just like the GOLD comment above; the diagonal in cash, with W-X-Y is likely the way to go.

      Delete
    4. Erik BJune 14, 2019 at 3:59 PM

      Thanks ET

      Delete

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