On Friday, I showed a potential downward count. While it has not materialized yet, it certainly does have the possibility of doing so. Because of my commitment to show a logical alternate when it presents itself, please consider this Pre-FED triangle as the likely best alternate.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 1 HR - Alternate Pre-FED Triangle |
Such a triangle would have to extend to any announcements on Wednesday. At this point in time, the (b) wave of the potential triangle has more bars than the (a) wave - which is typical of a triangle, and which is why the bar measurement ruler is shown. Also, the (b) wave is just a nick over the 78.6% Fibonacci retrace level, which would be good proportion for a triangle. If this pattern materializes, price movement would be to the up side out of the triangle, and we would consider that in any larger pattern.
Price may not travel below the (a) wave at any time to maintain the integrity of this alternate. This is why a person remains calm, neutral and open-minded about the progress of the waves. At some point soon, the June 11 high or the June 12th low will give way and set the stage for what is next. One really good reason this count is the alternate is that a triangle simply can not be called until all five legs are "in the market", and that simply is not the case yet. But, the idea of a triangle is reasonable given all the eyes on the FED meeting results on Wednesday.
Since the count above is shown in the futures, it is the futures that must maintain validity.
Have a good start to the evening and to the week.
TraderJoe
would the triangle be
ReplyDeleteB wave or 4th wave or something else should it appear
Since previous posts referenced only "three-waves up", so far, then since this very potential triangle wouldn't overlap anything, then it would be a fourth if it occurs. But, I don't have a really good second wave to mate it with - another reason for it being an alternate.
Deleteok thanks
DeleteOn cash spx, if 1st move down from May was a wave 1, then 3 waves up for "a", double zz down for "b", and current wave up for "c" of flat? Would the triangle fit in this as a fourth?
ReplyDelete4hr chart.
Deletei want to repost this
ReplyDeleteespecially since blog title is alternate
from this weekend
"
it seems to me the bulk of chart above is correcting a 10 bar down impulse. 2 of the waves take more time in the downwards direction than the initial wave down. from a time perspective everything from right of first peak could be correcting move up from early june. the feel of the wave is more of a 4th wave down not a second wave up. i dony see this upward move from 1 down characteristic of 2nd wave psychology. its been 18 months now without much total return and in process we have 2 periods of quick corrective 3 wave declines. we had a large outside week followed by a doji. unless the pattern above plays out immediately with an accelerating third wave down (not a C wave) i dont think looking for downward counts is appropriate for me."
I find it hard to count a finished B wave on DOW and S&P500, but Nasdaq on the other hand might have a triangel B?:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WEAy6YZP/
Clearly the fifth wave up, based on Draghi ECB comments, and China trade news. Correction likely counted as a 'double-combination', and not a triangle.
ReplyDeleteNext gap up at 2,932 cash.
DeleteCurrently at 1.382 of the three down waves. I'd expect it to go higher for an impulse, and it 'looks' unfinished at this point. The Fibo ratio makes the alternate a newsy "B" wave, until exceeded.
Deletenot clearly a fifth wave
ReplyDeletethis can be 3rd wave up
and iii of 3 from dec low
Would that make the move since dec low the 5th wave from 2009 low?
DeleteSee next day's post.
DeleteThanks TJ
DeleteES price and is beyond the 1.382, so far. This eliminates a 'typical' B wave.
ReplyDeleteA new post has been added for the next day.
ReplyDelete