Note: Please see the second chart (in the P.S.) done after the first one.
In previous posts, we had written "three waves up", and "still three waves up" from the June low. This morning the market popped higher based on Mario Draghi ECB comments which were highly dovish, and based on news on China trade talks (and that's all it is - news on 'talks' - not on an agreement.)
In previous posts, we had written "three waves up", and "still three waves up" from the June low. This morning the market popped higher based on Mario Draghi ECB comments which were highly dovish, and based on news on China trade talks (and that's all it is - news on 'talks' - not on an agreement.)
Based on those previous blog posts, based on the Elliott Wave Oscillator, and based on the presence of very difficult to define 0 - 2 trend lines, this wave up appears to be part of the fifth wave. The chart is below.
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| ES E-Mini S&P Futures - 2 Hr - Impulse |
Yesterday, we posted an alternate of a potential triangle and said we were "neutral, calm and patient". We saw how a pop higher could develop as a logical result of a FED meeting. We also saw how a downward wave could develop. The futures were initially lower overnight, then higher on Draghi comments. The pop occurred this morning based on news, making the fourth wave count best as a very sideways double combination.
Note there is indeed alternation between the very sideways fourth wave - who's x wave did not go over the top, and the second wave who's b wave did go over the top.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator shows the fourth wave signature - having been below, above, and near the zero line at several points (+10% to - 40%). And, now the task is to study the fifth wave and see where it ends. In this count, minute ((iii)) is shorter than minute ((i)), so minute ((v)) should be shorter than minute ((iii)) for the count to hold.
There will be more later. Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
P.S. For reasons of time and "Degree" consistency, measurements show that the middle section is the longest correction in both time and price. Therefore, it might be best considered the (b) wave. This still works acceptably with the 0 - 2 trend line. Chart below.
Needless to say, this has been a very intractable wave set to count, especially with the extremely shallow (b) waves. Still they are larger than any correction in the preceding up wave.
P.S. For reasons of time and "Degree" consistency, measurements show that the middle section is the longest correction in both time and price. Therefore, it might be best considered the (b) wave. This still works acceptably with the 0 - 2 trend line. Chart below.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 2 Hr - Time and Price Degree |
Needless to say, this has been a very intractable wave set to count, especially with the extremely shallow (b) waves. Still they are larger than any correction in the preceding up wave.
been saying that for a while. like the count. now, 5 up, and this wave can extend much higher. its not close to a degree violation for its first wave
ReplyDeleteand it can be counted as 3rd wave just started which would require a lot of accelleration
DeleteWould appreciate it if someone has an answer to get me on track.
ReplyDeleteI've been tracking 2 counts:
May high is B
May high is ((a)) of B
Which makes the 3 wave move down from May high:
1 (unknown degree) of a leading diagonal down for C OR ((b)) of B.
Which makes current up move:
2 (unknown degree) of a leading diagonal down for C OR ((c)) of B.
So, when price when over the top of June 11 high today, I labelled the June 11th high as an "a" wave and the subsequent sideways action as a "b" wave.
Which would make it:
3 waves up to complete 2 if it does not exceed May high OR 3 waves up to complete B if it does.
BUT, Joe and everyone else I follow who knows what they are doing have used the alternate of a 5 wave move. I had not counted that due to 0-2TL.
If anyone can tell me where I'm going wrong, I would greatly appreciate it.
I can not and will not critique everyone's individual counts. I counted the (B) wave up in excruciating detail in this post.
DeleteThree More Headaches
Later in subsequent posts I said if there was another three-wave down move, it would likely be another "X" wave of Intermediate (B). A lot of people are only following the S&P500 - few are following the Dow, where counting originated.
TJ
Please see a new chart in the P.S. It tends to agree with your 5th paragraph - for reasons of measurement of depth of price and degree.
DeleteThanks for responding earlier!
DeleteI apologize for the poorly formatted question. I have been using your count the whole time, but I incorrectly labelled move from December with a/b instead of proper w-x-y as I was writing the question.
No problem.
DeleteThanks TJ, how would this change your count from dec low?
ReplyDeleteIt doesn't.
DeleteIt seems like the downward wave set is too long in price to be a sub-wave of the original wave. I've tried putting ((2)) a number of different places. As a (c) wave, it is way too long for 4. So, I'm thinking it may be a new wave set.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/b1mtb
TJ
setting up then for another 5 up?
DeletePlease see a new chart in the P.S.
DeleteA new chart has been added as a P.S.
ReplyDeleteyour taking baby steps to a full out bull market impulse. now though c can run a while... we just have to watch the 0_b trendline to rule out the big one.
Deletethanks for your work
No, I'm not. You would have to show me how to count the up wave from December as a "five" given all the 0 - 2 trend line breaks. The onus for that is on you. Not me.
Deletejoe
ReplyDeleteusing tools i learned on this site i have identified on multiple occasions wave counts which seemed wrong, yet measured properly, predicted further continuation, and were later adopted on this site. my struggle is that we revise 3 waves up to an impulse after future waves arrive. shouldnt a wave be "what it is" independent of the future? ots the schrodinger cat again... its a 3 and a 5 wave structure until its observed in proper context?
no; the revised count in the P.S. is not an impulse. I will show it in context tomorrow.
Deletethanks
Deletemy comment above was talling only about the wave marked a. i know its not an impulse i see the b wave
DeleteThis stuff is a great labeling system for after the fact charts. There is a clear count of what's to come like 10% of the time. Why bother?
ReplyDeleteThe wave counts this high up in the structure are very compressed - making it more challenging than ever.
DeleteI think there have been an discussion here before on the 09 bull run as a corrective wave..I agree that it would be strange that one of the biggest bull run in the history would be an corrective wave, but some sectors haven't been performing so well during this run, financials for example.
ReplyDeleteMaybe this is the corrective wave 4 with the same degree as the great depression, that would alternate well and explain this big upward drifting B/X wave? Here's charts, I don't think have any degree violations, the zigzags we've seen might be the diagonal of C of Y? Opinions??
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_3dcd203e2e909d41c9488a7e1e499775.png
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_59c2afe2cedc65e0601ba95c0d375b22.png
The degree violation is that the second blue (b) in the first chart - which you have listed as a smaller degree wave - is larger than (X), which you are stating is a larger degree wave.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteThis is another count that might explain the high ewo and NYAD. ET I have tried not to do any cartoon drawing..I have checked as best as I can for degree violations (which I don't understand fully yet). Yes intermediate (3) is bigger than primary ((1)) and also minor 3 of intermediate (5), BUT those are the extended waves? As long as primary ((1)) is longer than their subwaves and the other waves that isn't extended which is intermediate (1) and minor 1 of intermediate (5)?
DeleteAlso maybe primary ((1)) ended in May 2011 and primary ((2)) as a sharp? That would also help degree violation considerations alot.
https://invst.ly/b1tra
With this count the peak of the ewo would be at minor 3 of intermediate (5) of primary ((3))!
DeleteHere are full labeled chart almost, no degree violations? Except recent December-present price swings, which might be ok because of same primary degree, coincidence?
Deletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_fbd44b62cc8046082440f867f732876e.png
hi joe
ReplyDeletein weekly what does it give?
thank you
See next day's daily chart.
DeleteA new chart has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete