Using The Eight Fold Path Method on the appropriate time-frame of the futures provides a pretty clear picture of the impulse up, and the likely start of a flat-wave correction.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 15 Minutes - The Eight Fold Path Method |
Note in particular that wave (iii) of iii occurs on the peak of the EWO, and wave (v) of iii appears on the first divergence, with a little over 150 candles on the chart - well within the typical parameters of 120 - 160 candles on the chart. Then, after a sideways overnight fourth wave which sees the EWO dip below the zero line, the fifth upward wave dies before the mid-channel line, and on a further EWO divergence from wave iii.
There is good alternation, with wave ii as a failed zigzag, and wave iv as a flat. Wave iv's b wave does go over the top, where wave ii's does not.
There is good alternation, with wave ii as a failed zigzag, and wave iv as a flat. Wave iv's b wave does go over the top, where wave ii's does not.
When the channel was broken only three waves down were counted, therefore, we suggested that perhaps the correction will occur in the form of a flat correction. Prices did go marginally over the high, and may be targeting 2,833 or the 1.382 level from a:3.
On the daily chart, prices today fought a battle all day between the 18-day and the 100-day SMA's ending higher and slightly over the 18-day SMA to now have a positive bias.
While the impulse could only be an "a" wave up of a three-wave sequence for a correction of the downward move, that yet remains as unproven. So take things slow and summer-easy.
And you have to marvel, don't you, at - how even though wholesale prices for gasoline have tanked - gas prices at some retailers remain as high as if the wholesale prices were $2.06? Folks, they are down at $1.69 for July RBOB! Come on now.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
does any second wave after 5 up need to be longer in time than grey wave ii?
ReplyDeleteand perhaps grey 4 is expanded flat 5 up still in process. thanks joe
DeleteTJ, thoughts on longer term roadmap? Given the 1,2,3 turned into an ABC, then my thought is that we are going back above all time highs with wave 1 of the impulse just finished, or this larger corrective wave continues as a series of zig zags morphing into a diagonal down to 2300ish in SPX
ReplyDeleteYa.. that 'or' is the issue.
DeleteYa.. that 'or' is the issue.
ReplyDeleteHi Joe,
ReplyDeleteThanks for sharing!
I have questions:
From Monday's low 2728 to today's high 2827 is about 99 points.
Today's low a:3 2800
"..... and may be targeting 2,833 or the 1.382 level from a:3." does it meant
1.382 * 99 = 136, plus a:3 = 2936?
if a flat correction means 0.382 retracement? which is 99*0.382 = 38 points from
todays high 2827 - 38 =2789 (about 10 points lower than todays' low)?
Needs a lower low today first to assume paragraph one.
DeleteParagraph two: not necessarily.
ET, Any thoughts on the state of the Gold E wave?
ReplyDeleteEither deep (b) wave of diagonal (a) wave down or we go over the top in wave i. Dicey call.
Deleteis chart on post above still your count
DeleteCan i ask a longer term chart ? from the end of 2018 ?
ReplyDeletestill impulse like first post above or working on next up wave or expanded flat as posted in update?
ReplyDeleteWe likely have b:3 wave. c:5 or c:3 of triangle are possibilities. Whippy, so far.
DeleteBeen thinking triangle myself. If it turns out to be a "b wave" triangle then that really puts a nail in the coffin for the potential diagonal count. To be absolutely honest I cannot find one index in North America or Europe that follows all the rules for either an impulse or diagonal from the recent highs. Really all I can see is 3 non-descript waves lower. So the question is can this presumed large degree wave 4 starting October 2018 be a different or more complex structure other than a-b-c and still lead us down to retest the Xmas lows?
DeleteIt appears the NYAD might be lagging.
ReplyDeleteOn the ES 15-min overnight chart, the fractal position of the market is pretty clear, creating what master trader Bill Williams called a 'bracket'.
ReplyDeleteThe EMA-34 is known as the 'balance line', and represents the 'chaos attractor' in the absence of major news. The two most recent fractals form a 'bracket'. Notice how price is now hugging the balance line.
https://invst.ly/az97e
Often times, he liked to say, 'when a bracket goes, it goes farther than most would expect it'. (This is not trading or investment advice ... just a recap of a portion of Bill Wlliams' methods), and he typically liked to place his stops at the second fractal back - also shown on the chart.
An up fractal requires two lower high bars on either side; a down fractal requires two higher low bars on either side of the fractal bar.
TJ
Joe, which of his books discusses the eight fold path? I'd like to read it.
DeleteHe doesn't. The Eight Fold Path includes some innovations of my own.
DeleteGiven that price has two overlaps on the heavy red-dotted line, then the wave count shown is applied. Notice how the X waves overlap the first and second 'a' waves definitely.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/az9dj
TJ
Hmmm. Hope you are right because I am starting to believe we will hit a higher high before a lower low.
ReplyDelete"Let's see what happens" with this count of the S&P FUTURES (30min - 139 bars)
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/ZLyG2B0
Joe
ReplyDeleteIs this your expanded flat b wave high - or is your count changed ?
I cant tell from your posts
I've been watching this as a potential 5th wave expanding diagonal from yesterday morning's low (YM. ES & NQ). If so now in "5th of the 5th". Timewise, to be longer than the "3rd of the 5th", it needs to run another 22 hours>
DeleteA very rare pattern if it happens. And usually only happens at the end of an entire up move. Not impossible. Low probability.
DeleteI think the Dow and S&P are way too strong now to make any kind of sensible reversal predictions. In fact, this uptrend could get a heck of a lot stronger.
ReplyDeleteOh, it 'will' get stronger. There will - most likely - be another five waves up. I said that in my post, and I stand by it. I'm just looking for three waves down that takes up some time.
DeleteSo, with the upper fractal broken on the FED interview (CNBC), the Z wave would equal the Y wave a 2848 - 2850 ES. If it remains a larger 'b' wave overall, then it is beyond the 1.618 Fibo external retracement on the a:3 wave, down - which means any c wave down is likely to fail at this post.
ReplyDeleteThis may be similar to the situation I showed in this post.
Out-sized B Waves
TJ
IF there is a C wave failure, downward, perhaps on the employment report tomorrow, then it only 'needs' to cross over 2,823 ES, again, to do it's job.
Deletegot it. very helpful.
ReplyDeleteSee above, at 3:45 pm.
Deleteany thoughts on a running flat for wave 2?
ReplyDelete..possible.. in futures as there is a cross-over, but not in cash. Even in the futures,the new 0-2 trend line is slightly violated.
DeleteSPX - just a few tenths shy of filling gap on 5/23 (low/high)
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete