Two days ago, in the last post, five-waves down were shown in the S&P500 cash index. Over the last two days, there has been an up movement with a higher high today, likely making at least an a-b-c sequence higher. The Dow's chart, below, shows that sequence as well as any other. I include the Dow chart today because many are or were having difficulty counting it.
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| DJIA Cash Index - 30 Minutes - Three Waves UP |
As far as I can tell, and keeping all the degrees of the labels correct, the Dow made a leading diagonal lower which can be counted as an (a) wave. Then there was a flat (b) wave up. This was followed by a sharp (c) wave down. The new (c) wave down proves the Dow's leading diagonal (a) wave, and preserves the meaning of a "zigzag" even though the (b) wave of the zigzag is a flat wave. That is allowed by the rules.
I don't know, but could surmise, that to keep the Dow and the S&P in synch, these three waves could be the first three waves of a larger potential diagonal. To keep the degrees correct, then these three waves would comprise the larger degree wave ((i)) down. The three waves up to today in both the Dow and the S&P would be a larger degree second wave ((ii)) because this set of waves takes more time than any previous correction.
Whether the upward correction is over or not depends on exceeding the (b) wave lower. Why? Yes, the Dow made a wave today that can be counted as an ending diagonal. If it is, then fine! But, if not, then the very same diagonal could also be a leading diagonal wave i, of a larger (c) wave of a higher ((ii)) wave.
There is nothing I can do about this amount of nondeterminism in the count. This is the true nature of alternates in Elliott Wave: the same exact wave structure can have two opposite meanings in the current context. Perhaps volume, advance/declines and/or tomorrow's gap direction can help separate the two scenarios, but at this point all we can say is that the "minimum" retracement needed for a second wave has been made.
Yes, the market is messy at the moment. We can see how people might throw up their hands at a wave count. We are trying to use the relative degrees of the waves - and time as well as price - to keep us on track.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
With futures sliding somewhat after hours I note the (c) wave up off the lows in NQ (not YM or ES) is longer than the (a) wave. Does that nullify the possibility that the HOD was i of (c)? If so then am I correct in suggesting the upward correction is either likely complete OR we've witnessed only a 3 wave (a) wave so far and the market needs to decline at least 39 SPX/ES points for the (b) wave with another move higher for the (c) wave.
ReplyDeleteS&P500 gapped up and filled the prior gap.
ReplyDeleteRoy C., your non-wave counting comment was deleted.
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DeleteCash: W-X-Y possibility off the lows here?
ReplyDeleteNot as likely as just a-b-c.
DeleteAn updated Dow chart is below. We are likely into the ivth wave of (c) of ((ii)).
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/at5ga
TJ
Looks like the usual ivth wave parameters have been met according to The Eight Fold Path method.
DeleteI see a diagonal on SPX on 1 minute chart. Starting at 2876.25, 2886.79, 2882.59, 2890.59, 2887.34, 2892.15. Lengths: 10.54, -4.20, 8.00, -3.25, 4.81. Don't know if all the internals work. It took 2:05 to form but has not been fully retraced as yet 3 hours after the top (low 2876.58).
DeleteFib cluster 2897 spx cash. (C=A*1.618 and 61.8 of whole down move from 1/5)
ReplyDeleteShould be close to 18 day line in the sand.
Delete20 DAY SMA = 2902
DeleteGreat educational blog...thanks TJ
ReplyDeleteWelcome Indy. Glad you like it.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
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