We said in yesterday's comments that the Dow Jones Industrial 4-HR chart still had plenty of time to validate it's potential diagonal by price exceeding the start of the diagonal in less time than it took to build. We now have to watch the charts with an eye towards ruling-in or ruling out overlaps.
Here is the chart of the hourly ES E-Mini S&P500 Index futures.
 |
| ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 60 Minutes - Acceleration Channel? |
So, from the above chart, we can see a way to start a larger degree down count. But, it would be best to monitor the wave in the larger channel, and the one in the smaller channel for potential overlaps.
The count is ambiguous at the moment in the futures because several of the waves shown here did not occur in the cash session. For example, the waves from 1 to ii (yes, ii, not 2) can be counted as a, b where b is a poorly formed triangle, where ii is the (e) wave of that b wave triangle. If so, today was only the c wave down.
So, while it is pleasing to have the short term - and possibly longer term - direction correct, the market is still failing to make clear, countable waves, especially in the cash market.
So, we need to remain flexible and patient and see if a more definitive pattern emerges. I'm tending to watch the futures for this a little bit more because they are going places the cash market is not.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIsn’t iii bigger than all of higher degree 1 degree violation?
Possibly.. which adds to the difficulty of some of the waves not being made in the cash session. So I remain flexible until something clear forms.
DeleteQuestion: Why is iii > 1 a degree violation? Wouldn't iii/3 be normally expected to be the wave that stretches 3 into the longest wave within a typical impulsive move?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe. Haven't commented in awhile but following the work closely and learning a lot.
ReplyDeleteI see a descending broadening triangle on S&P hourly targeting SPY 274 by end of month. Except a rally above SPY 293 by Friday or Monday
ReplyDeleteYep. I've seen that too, the possible expanding diagonal. But it may not be fully formed yet. Flexibility remains key.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteAw328, can you post a chart?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI'm watching GC as a possible nice setup downward could be taking shape. Weekly chart is outside of the alligators mouth and Daily chart GC is slowly working toward balance line. Over next few days we should be able to place a base bar on daily chart and we would need 1 lower low. If a shorting opportunity does present it's self we are outside of the alligators mouth.
ReplyDelete15 minute S&P - https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5_VEjUW4AYBObd?format=jpg&name=large
ReplyDeleteMaybe a diagonal on CL futures?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/gallery/mRjrFme
Im not so sure we should start the dowwnward count 1/5 but rather 3/5, at least at ndx and spy. 1/5 Ndx made a clear impulse up 4 pts away from ath and spy reached the 90% so the gap down 3/5 might be 1 down?
ReplyDelete