In a significant sign that the up trend (which is likely a second wave) is tiring, today - after making a marginal higher high - the fourth wave of (c) may have made a 50% retracement of its third wave. The Fibonacci ruler on the right shows this wave on the S&P500 cash index and its 50% measurement.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - 15-Minutes - Last Chance Wave iv ? |
In doing so, late this afternoon price came back to the upper edge of the base channel formed by the (a) and (b) waves, and bounced a bit. This 50% x wave iii level is about the limit for a fourth wave under The Eight Fold Path Method, so watch it closely. The Elliott Wave Oscillator seems to be providing that typical fourth wave signature being within +10% to -40% of the prior peak.
Yes, there is a downward expanding diagonal there, and it could start a down wave, but it does not have to. It could be a small degree .c wave of a flat, to alternate with the sharp wave ii.
Speaking of alternation in these corrective waves, we currently have a short wave iv within (a) and it alternates with a very long in time wave iv within (c), while their second waves are just the opposite in price. That is really excellent to see. At the current moment, waves (a) and (c) are remarkably similar in time. Adding a fifth wave higher of (c) would provide better time alternation too, but that is a guideline and not a rule.
Because the trend is one's friend until it is not, we should still look for that fifth wave higher. But, under no circumstances can either the i wave of (c) or the (a) wave be overlapped and maintain this count. The best alternate at this time is a double-zigzag higher if overlap occurs before a fifth wave up.
Keep in mind that because this is likely a (c) wave, then the fifth wave of the (c) wave may truncate if it wishes - particularly in cash. So, now is the time to keep an eye on things!
P.S. As far as I can tell, within wave (c) the wave iii is shorter than wave i. I did not change the first wave count from yesterday.
P.S. As far as I can tell, within wave (c) the wave iii is shorter than wave i. I did not change the first wave count from yesterday.
Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe
Thanks Joe for the update
ReplyDeleteWelcome James.
Deletejoe
ReplyDeletewhy are we counting
move from ath as 1 2
and move up (wave 2 forming) as abc? cant both be abc at this point? and isnt the move up impulsive- at least cant rule it out yet?
Please go back to Monday's post. 1)There is a 1.618 wave extension lower, and that has not been matched by an equal-sized 1.618 wave to the upside. 2) Price is at the fourth wave of prior degree - which is a stopping point for some advances.
Deleteyes thanks
Delete
ReplyDeleteJoe, any chance you'll talk about how iii of 3 and v of 3 are allowed to extend in relation to wave 1 in a blog post on this site in detail?
without that i feel i can't count.
joe, in your 10:03 am post on monday you have blue iv overlapping blue i this in a larger degree wave 3. i thought this was not allowed. does this change anything?
ReplyDeleteJoe, Thank you! I would have never found that extended wave in there. I would like to see tomorrows price under Fridays close 2881.
ReplyDeleteIm having trouble matching up with a 30min chart of ES futures. My issue seems to be with where 2 of c falls, and then the 5 waves of 3 of c. Am I missing something obvious here?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
I should say ii of c, and the 5 waves of iii.
DeleteAddendum: Perhaps this is just me, but the ES (c) leg seems to count in a 3-3-3-3 pattern so far, almost suggesting an overlap will occur. Its late here, maybe that's it. lol
DeleteSPX500-USD (cfd) just overlapped as suggested above.
DeleteWoke up this morning to find this overlap in the hourly futures and referred to above. Either the up move has concluded as w-x-y in the channel, or the (c) wave of a zigzag in cash is going on to make an ending contracting diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/atfao
The ending contracting diagonal would be a long ways off yet. In other words new highs would have to be made again. But, it any case, this is another sign that the up move is 'not' impulsing and is corrective - just as previously suggested.
TJ
TJ -
ReplyDeleteGeneral ETW, longer term question:
Given a new high SPX was hit in April after a confirmed impulse finished in Sept of last year (previous ATH), does that virtually guarantee that we'll see another ATH regardless of how the current C wave unfolds?
Thanks
-TJ
I was looking at the WXY possibility as well, but this would suggest we're now in w3. But, the move down is still well contained within parallel lines, suggesting corrective rather than impulsive as in 1 of w3. I would lean towards the expanding diagonal. One question on that.
ReplyDeleteWave v could truncate, could it not? (or at least fail to reach the upper TL)?
Thanks!
@ta - expanding diagonal of what?? I just don't see an ending expanding diagonal upward unless you show me the wave it corrects.
DeleteThe downward wave just became longer than the (b) or (x) wave.
ReplyDeleteIn cash, the downward wave is a 2.618 extension, suggesting any new lower low would be a five-wave sequence lower, and a first wave or 'a' wave of some sort.
DeleteNeither of these index futures has yet made a higher high: ES, YM, NQ, RTY. RTY back near the lows.
ReplyDeleteRTY is the first to take out it's b wave lower.
DeleteCan count five waves down from the high in ES and RTY.
DeleteCould possibly be an X wave here? Like a triangle lasting into Mon/Tues, and then another corrective wave that breaks 2892.
DeleteTriangle is possible in the Russell, not the ES or S&P yet. Need overlap in those two. But, so is a leading diagonal downward. All options on the table.
Deletekeep it up joe
ReplyDeletemuch appreciated
C wave diagonal still on table I guess?
ReplyDeleteES just broke to a intraday interim low
ReplyDeleteRTY, now, as well.
DeleteRTY now has a new lower low on the day.
DeleteBelow 1,538 RTY will have a structure that can count as an expanded diagonal.
DeleteRTY is now below 1,538 - qualified for expanding diagonal.
DeleteES has now exceeded it's b wave low, as the Russell did much earlier in the day.
DeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete