Overnight, the futures were lower. They never made a higher high than yesterday during the session today. And so the potential truncation we discussed yesterday lived on to tell its story another day. The updated chart is below.
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| S&P500 and DJIA Cash Indexes - 15 Minutes - Truncation and Failure? |
It was pretty clear to me from the overnight action, that the S&P500 futures (ES) had made a leading expanding diagonal lower - charts of which were posted in yesterday's comments. That wave is labeled as blue i, downward, in the chart above. Then, in whippy pre-holiday action the market spent the rest of the day in correction. The opening gap was filled. Lower lows were made, and then there were five waves up on the report of the FED meeting minutes.
So, the truncation held, but so did the .a wave wave of the correction, potentially making .c of a second wave ii. That means cash S&P might have both a truncation and a failure to deal with. And this is after making only "three-waves-up" in the flat correction, so far. If so, it speaks pretty clearly that there should be additional down side price movement to come. We'll have to see for sure, but at the end of the day there were some pretty serious price overlaps on the part of both the S&P and the Dow.
This would suggest that the 2,832 level - at least - on the S&P500 should be exceeded lower in the coming days.
Have a good start to the evening, and a good start to the long weekend - if you have already started a vacation.
TraderJoe
well said
ReplyDelete" If so, it speaks pretty clearly that there should be additional down side price movement to come. "
thanks joe
"This would suggest that the 2,832 level - at least - on the S&P500 should be exceeded lower in the coming days."
ReplyDeleteVery nice Joe!!, 2832 has been exceded in few hours in futures.
Joe -
ReplyDeleteI would appreciate your comments on the following chart (when time permits):
https://imgur.com/RFuyhFt
Thank you!
Since iv, up, overlaps i, down it is not a valid Elliott Wave count. If you can not find such very simple rule violations for yourself, you either need to study the basics more, or discontinue this work. It may not be for you.
DeleteMissed that. My bad.
DeleteI have i of 3 at -60.86. So far this wave, which should be (i) of iii, is -54.00. It can't go much lower without a degree violation, correct?
ReplyDeleteSPX cash
DeleteI don't think so. What happened to my diagonal wave down in the futures? Why isn't that (i) of iii, and this (iii) of iii, or (iii) of c? The third waves can then grow by extension.
DeleteES futures have a 78.6% wave lower; let's see if they try for 90% or more.
ReplyDeleteFutures easily hit 90% retrace.
Delete..and now through the lows.
Deletefyi only - at 2,810.60 the cash S&P would be 90% from the May 13th low.
ReplyDeleteAnd that is the minimum requirement for the "b" wave of a flat, correct?
DeleteNot saying that this is a "b" wave.
Yes, we've gotten exceptionally close.
DeleteThis is one of the best examples of the rare "triple zigzag" you might ever see. Notice the parallel channel, and the overlaps forbidding an impulse count, lower. Might be a 'b' wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/avb22
TJ
Also note the first (x) is a 'flat' which prohibits both kinds of diagonals.
Delete'Possible' if the market wants to drop further for the last 'b' wave to stretch out into a triangle.
DeleteTriangle b wave it is. There's the lower low in the thrust out of the triangle.
DeleteCash S&P easily busts 2,810.60, and can qualify for the (b) wave of a larger flat from May 13th if it wished to extend the correction in time.
DeleteHere's the triangle and the thrust out of the triangle.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/avbe-
TJ
The May 13 - May 14 gap is filled.
DeleteTriple ZZ down = 1.618 x the three waves up.
DeleteNow trading above the channel (lunch at desk .. drat!)
Deleteamazing chart, thanks.
ReplyDeletewelcome RGTTRDR
DeleteSo B down is the likely count? Is continuing impulse down still viable?
ReplyDelete'Often' not always, in large declines, second waves are longer in 'time' than their first waves. Either is possible. Depends where waves fail on the upside.
Deletewhat's the target for (c) wave of the flat? around 2890?
ReplyDeletelarger flat
DeleteIt would be. I'm trying to figure out the best wave to "rule it in", or "rule it out", now.
Deletei'm not seeing the downward move done yet
DeleteED DJI 5 min chart?
ReplyDeleteClosed above downtrend line of potential ED 5 min chart and backrest now ...can it hold?
ReplyDeleteRamp up now ?
ReplyDeleteDJI behaving like completed ED 5 min chart
ReplyDeleteCould it be that Joe's expanding diagonal from 2892.15 just finished with a final wave that was also an expanding diagonal?
ReplyDeleteA new post has been started for the next day.
ReplyDelete