What do you mean prices ended the week and didn't close on the high of the day? That is kind of a rare and different turn of events, for sure. The count remains the same.
 |
| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Count |
Wave ii, up, currently counts like a double zigzag, and that is fine. If it wants to take more time, it could possibly extend as a triple zigzag, but may not go over the Y wave of Intermediate (B) and maintain this count. As long as the SMA-(9) of the MACD - shown as the signal line - remains below the zero level, a downtrend should be respected.
As we wrote in the comments section earlier in the day (on yesterday's post), the Russell 2000 futures (RTY) did complete all the requirements of an expanding diagonal in the downward direction. By the futures settlement, the ES and cash S&500 did not, but they might do so in the after hours or on Monday.
Keep in mind the Dow Jones Industrial Average never did make a new all-time high - as the S&P500 and some other indexes did. And I was quite correct in my call that the Dow would not see a new all time high. I was not correct for the S&P500 or the NASDAQ 100. As I stated before, this prompted me to write a major Elliott Wave service and challenge their call of an expanding triangle for Intermediate (4). I'm still waiting for a reply.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Thanks, Joe!
ReplyDeleteHave an awesome weekend!
Welcome Mark. You, as well.
DeleteJoe, would black (b) be restricted in points by the move blue w to blue x made or not? if it was (w) (x) (y) that followed after blue x then (x) could not be more in points. here, it is (b). does this make it, alright.
ReplyDeleteCan't have a (w) (x) (y) after blue x. The regular EW rules don't allow that. So I don't understand your question.
Delete
Deletedid not know that. then my question is simply is black (b) allowed to be more in price than higher degree blue x. it would seem to me it should not be allowed. If it is allowed is it because it is the size in price of blue w in what determines max in price black (b) can be?
Joe, if you look at the first chart in the link below that is where I got the idea of (w) (x) (y) after blue x.
Deletehttps://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/icic-bank-elliott-wave-view-calls-for-correction-but-still-bullish/
Perhaps, you have someone to write to.
Hi Gerald, thank you for your link. I found elliottwave-forcast count bizarre, breaking rules many times.
Delete@Gerald - yep, there's a lot of 'junk' and a lot of 'cartoons' out there in ElliottWave Land. If they would have labeled all of the second ((w)) as an expanding diagonal A wave, then they would not have made the error. But, they don't want to follow the rules. I do.
DeleteJoe
ReplyDeletefang index only retaced 61.8 from dec low and has taken out its may low. thats a pretty goos barometer
Thanks for the MACD SMA 9 tip TJ
ReplyDeleteMorning Joe, I went back and reread this link.
ReplyDeletehttps://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2018/11/to-flatlanders-and-double-ziggers.html
In your current count your structure fails to do the following:
X does NOT overlap the 'a' wave of W.
You mentioned this in the post back then as why the WXY was incorrect. My concern is why is your WXY today, correct? Blue X does not correct the (a) of W.
If you move to the right the first black (a) you can get blue X to correct it.
The way you suggest may also be possible, but then you have to prove you can get the lengths of the internal five waves of (a) correct. If you wish to do it, fine. For me, it is water under the bridge at this time. I am sure my count works as is, and maintains degree consistency.
DeleteI know what you said about above in regards to you liking what you currently have but is there anything to rule this invalid?
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/i1K2VwN
I believe black (a) after a is allowed to be both more in price and time than a if I understand correctly the discussion of the long 2 in the weekly gold chart. I'll admit I still have a poor grasp on this stuff.
5 of [1] bigger than 5 of 1
DeleteI think that is allowed, marc. I would need Joe to comment on that to be exact.
Deletelower degree iv to v can be more than higher degree [4] to [5}.
however I am having problem with 0-2 trendline. My black iii has to go before 1/14. Also, the AO peaked on 2/6. My 1 is 3/4. I don't care for that. I have not seen enough or understand enough but it seems incorrect.
The best I can do is ab and we just put in a W at the top and are making an X now for coming up with an alternate that looks acceptable.
a would be 3/4 with the b move a wxy with the y a triangle. W is 5/1. That said there is not a good relation in relates to a and c. c is not even 38.2 of a.
if that IS W it is interesting that we stop below my proposed 3/4 a but above my proposed 3/27 b. AO would say we are in a degree change, I think, so I think X would be appropriate.
No. Gerald. Lower degree waves can not consume more time or price than higher degree waves. Marc is correct.
DeleteThank you marc and Joe.
DeleteOEW went cuckoo again, claiming that in the S&P500 Index there was a diagonal 1st wave without overlap in the fourth wave. Their d wave came nowhere close to overlapping their a wave - showing again that literally anyone can produce an Elliott Wave 'cartoon' and just stick letters and numbers on a chart. And remember - people are 'paying' for that course.
ReplyDeleteOne idea I am entertaining is we have W-X-Y of ii complete. From there we did, 5 waves down of 1 and at the moment we are just missing c wave of 2. Once, this completes on Monday, we should see nice down. Another option, but not sure if Joe agrees with it could be we are in another X wave and Z wave up coming to complete 5 prior waves down.
ReplyDeleteSee 1st sentence of 2nd paragraph, above.
DeleteGlad we are on the same page :-). Thank you for great work. There are not many blogs/elliott wave counters who actually follow rules. Most make up their own rules as they go own.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/idpW8J5
ReplyDeleteLooks like a triangle in the above that had two equal moves into and out of. Would seem they are correcting ET's accurately called diagonal.
ReplyDeletePretty straightforward break of the rally channel and re-test through op-ex last week.
ReplyDeleteSP500 Cash has 'at least' made an expanding diagonal downward.
ReplyDeleteIt's ugly as heck, but it explains the price action, so far.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/au51m
TJ
Assuming (i) is 2892 to 2879, isn't it longer in time than (ii)?
DeleteLonger in time than (iii) I mean
DeleteC, don't think so because (iii) contains an overnight in it ..the gap .. doesn't it? Hours are hours.
DeleteI never knew you could count diagonals like that. I've been following you for a while, I guess I just missed this?
DeleteC .. time is time; degree is degree.
DeleteET
ReplyDeleteUgly yes but gets much worse if we break March monthly low 2722. Monthly bearish reversal bar right now.
Weekly view balance line sits at 2727.
I won't do this all the time, but here is a very short term count since the intraday low.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/au6hl
TJ
Now showing two closes above the channel.
Delete..now above b wave of ((y)).
DeleteMarket could not take out prior ((x)) wave. Could be trying to make 0.618 retrace, or more, perhaps as an expanding triple-zz (or alternate another expanding diagonal).
DeleteThere's a new low for the potential correction.
DeleteHere's an update
Deletehttps://invst.ly/au728
TJ
... now at 0.618 retrace
DeleteA leading diagonal has proven out, as there is a lower low after it.
DeleteCash now is exceptionally close to a 90% retrace wave; may have to be flexible and see this morning's up wave as a "three" and not a "five" if this is a flat in the making.
DeleteCash tags and breaks 90%; a flat and / or (later) and expanded flat could be allowed.
DeleteCash breaks this morning's low.
DeleteThis morning's up wave 'must' have been a three in some fashion.
DeleteHere's an update on a five-minute chart
Deletehttps://invst.ly/au87n
TJ
From everything I can see at the end of the day, the up wave changed degrees, as it is longer in price than any internal corrective wave of the down move from this morning's high. Should result in five up of a flat.
Delete