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| S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Partial Wedge |
I know a lot of people see a triangle here, and the only problem with a triangle is that it doesn't overlap the wave to the 10th. So, the 18th would be (i) of ((c)), and today would be (iii) of ((c)).
It's not for certain. But the FED decided to get aggressive about its jaw-boning and it curtailed the downside for the time being.
Have a good evening.
TraderJoe
thanks joe,
ReplyDeletewe know the impulse was counted last week, maybe we had a running flat for 2/b, and we are in c/3 - thats pretty bullish still, i got to do some work for other counts that terminate a leg up from lows
Hi TJ,
ReplyDeleteI love your conviction. I am still trying to understand why you would continue to use a wave 2 with so much strength in the market. There is next to no rollover in any stocks yet and the advance decline is still strong along with several other factors. I am still cautious and not adding, but I don't think we are rolling over in the short term.
The FED is doing what it is doing because they know it is wave 2, too. Do you think they would back off if they were sure of new all-time highs? Do you not think that if some here are good wave counters, that they don't have the very best in wave counting technology available to them? And, yes, from the perspective of the 'personality of the waves' the very purpose of a second wave is to convince the majority of the bull case. Looks like it found one - and many more - already.
DeleteTodd, I do not know how long you have been following the posts from TJ. I also do not speak for TJ. From my perspective, the focus on the downward count is based on 2017 and 2018 posts where TJ counted 5 waves up off the 2009 low as complete with no degree violations. This count has not yet been invalidated.
DeleteConsequently, using EWT, the next primary degree move is down to correct the 2009 - 2018 bull run at the minimum.
So, if you are making an argument of higher prices, it would be enlightening for this board to see your count off the 2009 bottom. If we are still in a bull run, what degree are you proposing we are in?
That’s a great point of view TJ
Delete@Paul. Agree.
DeleteHi Paul
DeleteI try not to use EW counts. They are wrong more than they are right. TJ counts were so bad in a couple of years ago the posts were deleted.
I still follow him because he is smart and I get an idea where some EW people are at. Plus, he had been great for over the past year in his work. He also called the top in 2015. He is better than all the other EW guys I follow.
I highly doubt the Fed uses EW. If EW was so great, more institutions would use it. They don’t.
Until there are some sectors that show some weaknesses, I think it’s fruitless to put up a count at this time.
Btw- I wouldn’t come to this website if I had the market figured out. I am wrong most of the time. I was telling TJ he was wrong when he called the top perfectly in the Dow last fall.
I think this site has good things to offer, but I think everyone is caught in this wave 2 ending soon and the strength of the charts are telling me differently.
I actually hope I’m wrong because I was hoping to get prices in the S&P around 2250. (62% retracement of the Trump rally). So far market bottomed around the 50%.
@Todd .. that's not why the posts were deleted. Google had an issue with how many posts were being stored at the time. They have corrected it as far as I can tell.
DeleteCouple observations:
ReplyDelete1. Highest reading on daily AO since Jan '18 peak
2. This starting from the lowest reading on AO since 2008.
Pretty impressive.
those who missed rally are most bullish. just think about that. i proposed correction was over at bottom and called for a wavec4 overlap and called higher prices uo until today. i think its not so simple now. the easy trade is over. maybe catch a bit to 2720 but be very careful. joe may be right in big picture
ReplyDeleteInsane but legal ... leg from 2346 low as c up of 2 up
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_b11ff172dc1846dde7f03fa905d2e8a3.png
Not legal - because, as I've already explained numerous, numerous times now - your smaller degree B wave of wave (2) is longer than wave one of higher degree. B > (1), and that is not allowed.
DeleteWould something like this work? I am looking more at fractals. The big picture is wave C. Five waves down, this is wave 4 overlapping wave 2. Target around 15 k on Dow. Kolla in tweeten av @lindqvist1969: https://twitter.com/lindqvist1969/status/1090731466349260801?s=09.
Delete@Johan. No, because your smaller degree 'b' wave is larger than your larger degree 'A' wave. It violates the definition of wave degree.
Deletethe trouble with ew is it lags prices. its not often predictive. but using wave degrees there is a prediction and its lower prices over intermediate term. focus on higher degrees when lower degrees are unclear.
ReplyDelete"trouble"? How can five waves up be counted until they are actually made? They can't. Same with five waves down. This situation exists reflexively in both directions. Neither the bull nor the bear gains the advantage from the lag in the wave count. This is part of the "eyes wide open" knowledge people must have about Elliott wave and which I have covered in previous material. It is similar to the "Fourth Wave Conundrum" but more basic.
Deleteyou are supporting - not arguing - my point
Delete@Marc. In some ways I am. I just label it as inherent in any market, rather than troublesome or bothersome. There 'must' be some uncertainty. Why? Well, it comes down to the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle in the final analysis. And that is a very scientific way to look at it.
Deletethe level of troublesomeness is also a variable which - if quantified to some extent - is an input as well - lol
DeleteSome EW analysts consider the methodology "scientific" and therefore "predictive". I have read the analysis of quite a few over the years, primarily to try and confirm my own view of the market. I am convinced that very few EW analysts actually TRADE their "predictions". There is no substitute for doing one's own due diligence, imho.
ReplyDeleteWhy go total 'black and white', or 'either-or', Verne? EW may be 'more' scientific or at least more 'methodical' than a bunch of FED economists who use 'economic' methodology to predict numbers that they, themselves, say they have very often gotten incorrect. And, as such, each must do their own due diligence. And yes, I do not try to trade my EW predictions in such circumstance as FED meetings and Payroll reports, and anytime I am on the road - as I am for a few days. All I take exception to is the "all or none" style of thinking.
DeleteP.S. ..and's that is what stops are for!
DeleteFully agree ET. I am in no way critical just because the market did something one did not expect. We have all been there. My difficulty is with folk who make dogmatic predictions, denigrate anyone with a diffeent viewpoint, then refuse to own it when proven wrong. Clearly you don't, but some do, sadly.
DeleteStill no reason this up move can’t be part of running B wave of minor 2?
ReplyDeleteNone that I can see yet, Erik. I'm still working on it, though.
DeleteA separate comment - unrelated to others. We know that some Indexes like the NQ made a 'true' flat in November, with a lower low 'b' wave in that month. Other indexes, such as the S&P500, did not even make the 90% level in that month to qualify for a 'true' flat. It seems to me under that circumstance the very best label for the December high is a ((b)) wave. It keeps all of the Indexes in synch from a count perspective.
ReplyDeleteIn all the years I have been trading,negation of twin island reversal patterns is a rare thing indeed. We now have a third in DJIA.
ReplyDeleteVery strange things going on in this market.
I suspect a very creative use of leverage is at work...
I noticed that also Verne. I believe that pattern (Island Reversal) is much more potent if the island is a new high as opposed to occurring within a corrective pull back below the high. I could be mistaken but that is how I understand it.
DeleteYou are quite right. I think what is really fascinating is that we see ANY downside gaps in a bullish uptrend. Kinda strange...
DeleteI think we are pretty close to the high for wave 2 now, we reached the 61% retracement in the S&P500. But maybe this is still only wave a of 2? Regardless, ~10% downside potential for wave b of 2 is still a lot.
ReplyDeleteFWIW, we had daily dojis that signaled recent tops on August 11 and December 3.
DeleteWe really have not seen another one since the most recent top in December so perhaps that particular reversal signal is still intact...
I was thinking the wedge count might look like this one. Again, it's just a probability at this point.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9xyfh
TJ
This is another variant that helps preserve degree labeling, and is more conscious of an upcoming 1.618 x ((a)) relationship.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9xyt0
TJ
It seems to me that (i) of ((c)) is greater than the whole wave ((a)).
DeleteIsn't that a degree violation?
@John. I'm not sure, yet. Possibly. It seems to me that 'C' waves are like third waves in that they should be allowed to grow by extensions. Neely also cites a 1% 'B' wave as a minimum in a zigzag. So, then it seems like almost 'any' sub-wave of 'C' in that case would be longer than it's larger degree 'B' wave, too. So, we know the first 'a' is smaller than ((a)). And then 'c' of (i) is smaller than ((a)), too. I'm not yet sure in a zigzag and in ending diagonals 'precisely' how this works. So ...
DeleteIf this variant doesn't work, it may be that the prior one does. Not sure.
With today's high at 2708.95 I now have to lean towards the previous long consolidation as a triangle. I posted yesterday IF it was a triangle the measured move would be "in the 2710 area". The triangle itself being 4 of 3 with today's high concluding all of 3. Now in 4. That's just my honest appraisal so please don't shoot the messenger. The drop for the 4 I'd expect to be about 2% to 3%. It really depends on where you put the 1 & 2. That I'm not so sure on. I place DAX, CAC and Sydney also in 4s. So next week should be a down week. See if AMZN can disappoint after hours and kick start this 4.
ReplyDeleteWhat iii wave peak does the very end of the ivth wave triangle of 3 overlap with? I'm asking as I am on the road and away from my main workstation.
DeleteThanks for pointing this out ET. I cannot see a wave the e moves back into to correct. The legs were also 90% retraces which is not supportive of a triangle.
DeleteIF 2708.95 remains the high then we DO NOT have a good fib. relationship to label 2708.95 wave 3 off the Xmas low i.e. as part of an impulse. For a 1.618 relationship between waves 1 & 3 for those counting an impulse from the Xmas low, wave 3 should terminate at 2724 and even higher in the futures market. In my opinion that would be a significant "tell" that the market, at 2708.95, has completed iii of C rather than wave iii of an impulse.
ReplyDelete@Billy; agree.
Deletethanks Billy
Delete1.618 on w5000
DeleteET the very end of wave E of the wave iv triangle does not overlap with any part of iii that exists prior to the triangle. Within the triangle wave B is a 90%+ retracement of wave A and wave D is a 57% retracement of wave C.
ReplyDeleteThanks for being honest. Then it's not a valid triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xEvWMcg2/
ReplyDeleteCould positive RSI be a sign for the last wave up? Fibonacci ratios look good so far. I can't count 5 C waves using Bill Williams or 8 fold method.
If it's not a triangle it may an expanding diagonal on ES. Looks okay as an expanding diagonal on NQ and RUT futures.
ReplyDeleteThanks Joe as always! So the Fed wins yet again? Do you think it’s probable as of the current count to see a new ATH?
ReplyDeleteNot likely Jay.
DeleteSome very long term trend lines have been broken.
DeleteThere is one EW analyst who has absolutely staked his reputation on his insistence that we CANNOT have an ATH in the markets as there was only a three wave move up in NYSE. As I have openly stated I am not an EW expert, but this particular analyst appears supremely confident that new ATHs are on the way. To be fair, they are not the only one. Some other good analysts consider us in a continuing high degree fourth wave with a fifth and final wave up to come before the bull market is done. I am waiting for a reaction to key MAs, unfolding as we speak....
Verne-
DeleteCount me as one who subscribes to the high degree fourth (fwiw). :o) I follow this site so as to keep an open mind and consider both avenues. I find it better to leave the blinders off. Thanks for your comment.
I try not to be too dogmatic...been proven wrong way to many times for that..! Lol!
DeleteThe bears could get some optimism if AMZN, PYPL, and some various banks continue to rollover after today's pullback.
ReplyDeleteThe count is now very much dependent on taking out this morning's low.
ReplyDeleteLooking for clues . . . VIX remains in recent downdtrend . . . suggests price support for S&P will hold
ReplyDelete200 MA should provide support...for VIX that is...
DeleteI'm not much for counting waves (I know, what am I doing here), but from a momentum and breadth perspective it looks like we just completed wave 4 from the advance that started at 2694.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteCorrection, advance that started at 2624
DeleteThere are now five-waves down, as a perfectly measured expanding diagonal, off of today's high, and can go lower.
ReplyDeleteI did not 'wish' for the chart. I did not 'want' the chart. I was simply prepared to count it the only way it seemed to form - as a 3-3-3-3-3 Expanding Diagonal.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9ycy4
TJ
It could still go lower, but the measurements in both price 'and' time are that ((5)) > ((3)) > ((1)); ((4)) > ((2)), and ((4)) overlaps ((1)) but does not exceed the high of ((2)).
DeleteThis morning's low was exceeded lower.
DeleteThe potential significance of the expanding diagonal is that if it is a 'kickoff' wave, then 2,676 S&P500 cash would likely need to be exceeded lower to create a fourth wave overlap within the potential minute ((c)) wave diagonal count.
DeleteAfter the expanding diagonal, a "b" wave flat can be counted that did not truncate; that is, the -c wave of the flat is higher than the -a wave. In any case, the expanded diagonal lower ended slightly earlier.
DeleteYep. Looks like we will get a gravestone doji today....
ReplyDeletenot sure what that is but let me know if its still there at close
ReplyDeleteThere is now at least a 38 - 50% retracement on the diagonal - depending on whether you take the low or the 14:30 start to a flat wave. That is sufficient but the retrace could go higher, say on Monday. So, the question now is whether we see 2,676 before we see 2,717 ES.
ReplyDeletewhat wave is the diagonal? thanks
ReplyDelete