The best count for the S&P500 cash index remains this one on the four-hourly chart of the futures, below.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - Four Hourly - Diagonal minute ((c)) |
It's 'possible' wave (iv) down began at the tail end of the session. It should take less total time than (ii) to maintain a diagonal. (This is not a rule but a guideline). The Elliott Wave Oscillator continues to diverge but the green histogram bars for today likely indicate the third wave.
In order to maintain this count, in no case may wave (iv) travel below the low of wave (ii). So far, this wave is just 'grinding and grinding' and there is no clear wave-counting topping signal such as an outside day down, or a bearish engulfing candle. One can also see the the trend line from the 26 Dec lows is also still being maintained. Price is still above the 18-day SMA, so, it has a positive bias, the upper Bollinger Band is not too far away, and the daily slow stochastic is now embedded.
With today's higher high and overlap of 2,603 for the S&P500, it likely means the diagonal count is activated - just as with the $NYA we showed on the previous post.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
thanks joe.
ReplyDeletei have seen your ability to count waves. i have measured and found the entire move as impulse. if your arrows are reversed at end and we have up then down we open up more impulsive counts.
so this is a good opportunity for me to learn. i have 3 questions
1) is it true that if an impulse can be found it needs to be counted as such,
2) have you tried to measure an impulse and if you cannot what is the main violation
3) is there anything about the diagonal count where wave 2 should unfold as abc with ending diagonal in this time frame rather than a more complex lengthy 3 wave correction.
any response will be appreciated and no response as always is perfectly acceptable.
1) yes, although Neely counsels that without a 1.618 wave, one probably does not have an impulse (i.e. if the first wave is extended it should be the 1.618 wave).
Delete2) yes, I showed on the post of January 9th, that the up move to that point simply can not be counted as an impulse in the futures. There are too many overlaps. That micro ((5)) wave was just 'a' of (i) in the diagonal. Further, you are ignoring Neel's counsel that to "change degrees" requires a turn of 30% or more, in general. Not always. But usually. The minute ((b)) wave of the zigzag is 38%; there is no other 30% wave on the chart I can find.
3) banks usually react to the 50-day SMA, near where we are now.
Hope it helps.
certainly does
DeleteLike when you make reference To the theory and add your commentary
DeleteTY Joe
TJ, what do you mean by ”change degree” in this scenario?
DeleteYou mean it’s most likely that this is abc until we can evaluate another 30% correction?
DeleteThanks for the update. Would you mind going over the time relationships between b and c as a minimum and what would be long in the tooth? Thank you.
ReplyDeletecurrently ((c)) = 2.618 x ((a)); it is already stretching it.
DeleteThanks Joe. I'm trying to add the second dimension of time to my understanding of EWT and Prechter didn't give much guidance on the matter in EWP.
ReplyDeleteMarc, it looks like the impulse you were calling, but I don't know if it's origin is dec 26 or if it is a C wave.
ReplyDeleteie, 5 of 3, or 5 of c
Deleteor 3 of 3
Deletecan end here or extend higher
Deleteyep or 3of3
DeleteDiagonal still fits in ES futures. Must only overlap ES 2,599.50 futures.
ReplyDeleteHere's a chart
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9sumn
There is still enough room for (iv) to overlap (i) without being longer than wave (ii). Modify the trend lines as needed to fit waves (ii) and (iv) if they occur.
Impulse counters have to show how their wave three is not cut off by a line from 0 - 2. And, then, it is only today that makes a third wave possible (not previous days).
TJ
now i have us entering 3 of 5 of 5
ReplyDeleteshow me how your wave 3 is not cut off by a line from 0 to 2.
Deleteits in cash spx - do you still want to see?
DeleteNope. I get what you are doing. You are calling ((a)) as (i) and (b) as (ii), and some kind of triangle for (iv).
Deleteyes. if e can be up to b in triangle it works in futures
Deleteon futures my blue (iii) is your blue (i)
ReplyDeletei suppose there are violations in that futures count?
Yes, there are futures overlaps there. How many times must I ...lol?!
Deleteis max for e wave of triangle b of triangle?
ReplyDeleteUsually the max for e is c; show me this triangle if you think the max is b.
Deleteok - its neely diagram - 2 hours
ReplyDeletelower left i tried to count it as wave 4
please know im trying to help find an alternate not challenge your work
https://imgur.com/a/YlYrfPO
violation caused by (a) being too short? maybe you can work around and find something. thanks
ReplyDeleteSmall intraday triangle. Looks like minuete wave 4. Fake breakout South to fill this morning gap?
ReplyDeleteNoting that the a wave of this potential triangle has over lapped yesterday's high.
DeleteJoe,
ReplyDeleteHave not been able to follow today just sitting down now.
Regarding your earlier chart post, I'm wondering what dictates the placement of 1 where it is as opposed to the earlier high?
3 would be > 1? in time?
DeleteAs best I can tell in all the compression ..degree violation if not (ii) where it is.
DeleteTriangle forming on spx 5 mins chart.
ReplyDeleteHi, first post. Is it possible to tell whether the triangle is a 4th wave, or a B wave in an ABC 4th wave?
DeleteThe Unknown account is not provided responses. Please select a user name.
DeleteIt says I'm commenting with a name. How do I change from unknown?
ReplyDeleteYou have to login - it can be a little tricky, but it's there
DeleteActually, the icon to the left of the "Reply as:" has a profile and I found the "display name" was "Unknown". I changed that and it worked.
DeleteOK Trying again. Is it possible to tell whether the triangle is a 4th wave, or a B wave in an ABC 4th wave?
ReplyDeleteWhich triangle? Today's? In which the high was just exceeded?
DeleteYes, today's triangle. As it was forming, are there any tells to indicate what wave the triangle is in? Obviously, in this case it was a 4th wave.
DeleteWe have yet another wave that is not as long as it's prior wave; with overlaps, and an hourly inverted hammer that would require a closing candle confirmation lower. (The orange box is 100%)
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/9sxct
TJ
Hourly candle going red, and bearish engulfing, so far. Would need to hold for the hour.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/9sxkb
TJ
P.S. Russell 2000 did not confirm the S&P's second higher high today.
DeleteThe hourly inverted hammer was confirmed by the close. And a weak close it was at that.
Deletejoe great work today
ReplyDeletethanks
no questions
A new post for the next day has been started.
ReplyDeleteTJ