This is the Dow Jones Industrial Average on the five minute chart. It looks a little different than the S&P500, so I thought I'd show this one.
 |
| DJIA - Five Minutes - One Interpretation |
The market really struggled towards the end of the session, but there is nothing conclusive to say the up wave, wave ii, is over. A 62% retrace, or slightly more would not be unreasonable.
The downward diagonal has the correct measurements, and the required overlaps, and a very nearly correct time signature. And wave ii might be a Flat wave, itself, and has so far consumed more time than the downward wave.
Please keep in mind while other analysts were writing over the weekend about new highs, and "straight up from here". We at least saw some downward movement. We'll continue to take it step by step.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
yep
ReplyDeletethanks joe
Yes sir! I think that is correct. if so, a bit higher with accelerating momentum downward the next session...
ReplyDeleteJoe, I see that (in S&P) submicro C of ((B)) is longer than micro ((A)) in price. I understood that this was a degree violation. Am I wrong ?
ReplyDeleteThanks and sorry for the email.
"Expanded" flat...
ReplyDeleteCash session. It is NOT the same as ES...
DeleteLearning how to apply Fibonacci chart shows best way I see to count gold at this time. Should remain above 1-25-19 price.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/p0k9zqZT/
Any thoughts about a possible abcde type corrective pattern here on SPX? (a is 23rd low)
ReplyDeletePerhaps something along these lines:
Deletehttps://imgur.com/l2l8Kex
I think a triangle can be counted on spx cash from 2674 high, but that doesn´t fit with the overal zigzag for ((2)) so probably not the right count?
ReplyDeleteMaybe a WXY in the making from 2624 that makes it look like a larger triangle..
DeleteThe 5 hour chart of ES appears to me to be some kind of triangle. I know the rules for them are very specific but even when sideways consolidation does not technically qualify as a triangle pattern, the outcome is nonetheless similar, namely a continuation pattern with price breaking in the direction from which it began. I am starting to think that my conclusion that short term bearish signals are continually being negated is an error on my part due to myopia, and failing to step back and look at the larger pattern, clearly a hazard of becoming to pre-occupied with minutiae...just my two cents...
DeleteCould be right Verne or is that capitulation on your behalf … lol. More seriously however, ET should be able to decipher whether or not any valid triangles may be building.
DeleteThe problem with the triangle that "everyone can see" is everyone can see it. Furthermore the measured move would be to the 2730 area and could be counted as 5 waves from the Xmas low. That almost implies the bear market was over at Xmas which many like to believe. I'm not sure I'm a believer.
DeleteThis is one the primary reasons why I believe the bear market cannot be over.
Deletehttps://imgur.com/Vycc84i
HaHa! Billy. I have to admit I am a perfect contrarian indicator being a bear by nature. I am quite confident that what I am seeing is sideways consolidation entered in a larger uptrend and those tend to break to the upside. I freely admit I am a terrible wave counter but some patterns are my trading bread and butter and triangles are one of 'em as they are fairly reliable in the direction they break. I would be happy to be wrong though! :)
DeleteBTW Billy, quite right about an upward thrust resulting in five up off the December lows. One of the most difficult lessons for traders to learn is that Mr. Market does not care what our expectations are. Mr. Market is always right!
DeleteI don't think SPX 2800 is off the table based on what I am currently seeing. I did not in any way shape or form expect that but price is what it is....
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/29/consumer-sentiment-is-the-most-recessionary-signal-yet-gundlach-says.html
ReplyDeleteThis bull is getting old. It's going to break sometime. Interesting Present Conditions and Expectations indexes, looks like it can drag out for awhile.
DeleteWe have the thrust from the triangle.
ReplyDeleteThey used to be penultimate patterns but that seems to have changed, along with so many other anomalies in this market.Ordinarily I would assume the current thrust to be terminal. To do so now would be sheer folly unless and until confirmed by price. Be careful out there.
DZZ as wave 2 from the bottom? That was and is a pretty nasty wave to count with lots of bear traps on its way. So maybe one final push higher to the 61% retracement around 2712 to finish off all bears?
ReplyDeleteCertainly a good deal of spaghetti out there to count. Tracking the S&P 500 futures I can see the possibility of c of ii of (c) still being in play. a of ii of (c) stayed around a good deal longer than we first thought. c of ii "maybe" an expanding diagonal. If the early session profit taking drops the market to 2645 then diagonal case increases dramatically. Either way I have the S&P 500 futures in 4 of c of ii. This implies no new high. In fact I am expecting a third lower high if that makes sense of the two previous highs (no sure about cash but certainly that is the case in futures). Bottom line, I expect ET's original count to hold and ii of c to fade below the B wave high at 2673.
ReplyDeleteAs far as the DOW futures are concerned they made yet another high to day. Here the count is an expanding diagonal but not as part of a corrective wave. That is why the DOW is making higher highs. I believe it's well into c of 5 of that diagonal. Minimum technical target to support the ED count is 24869 (cash) and it's already done that. However before the day is out I expect the round number at 25000 to print and just a fraction higher. If we get that set up with the SPX still below 2673 and with waves appearing to be running out then I believe we will have the end of the rally from the Xmas lows. At that point bears will also have completely capitulated expecting the SPX to soon join the DOW at new highs.
Symmetrical es triangle. Deeper than I like but each leg is stopping at 90% retrace so far.
ReplyDeleteEWO seems to agree at this point.
Delete2667 is the 90% of C.
Deleteclose enough for me. would like a closing 15 candle under this one.
DeleteThe gap higher is unimpressive. Price penetrated areabof prior gap down where it is finding resistance. Bearish divergwnces persist...
ReplyDeleteThe rising Trigger Line (8 Day EMA) continues to act as support for the market. However, price is approaching the down trend line from the top so that support and resistance are forming a wedge with price in between. A break of one of these lines should provide a clue as to direction.
ReplyDeleteThere is a great benefit to these kinds of extreme moves under existing over-bought condirions, and that is the reversal signal is definitive. The ironic thing is that the increased bullish sentiment means some traders ignore it. Pavlovian conditioning...
ReplyDeleteHere is the bottom line.
ReplyDeleteIf we are on the thresh-hold of a third wave dowwn, the scenario to affirm or contradict that is exquisitely set.
We have a plethora of gaps to make or break the case. If the next impulse down does not decisively fill ALL of those open gaps, put the bears on ice! 😎
This comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteIf this is a triangle for ((B)) of zigzag, a ((C)) wave break out could go to 78.6 to finish minute 2 of an expanded diagonal? At 78.6 ((C))~0.5*((A))
ReplyDeleteDOW hit the round number 25000 but SPX went to a higher high. The measured move of the potential triangle on the SPX reaches to 2710 but I still don't really like it as an option. Although the YM could be counted as an expanded diagonal to the high, ES and NQ could still be B waves. Nothing would surprise here including a sharp reversal and seeing 2600 before the end of the week (don't laugh). Market is dealing with the main down trend lines (DTLs) on both the DOW (25008) and SPX. Quite a major inflection point. If the DOW holds above its DTL then 25980 is the next mark. First challenge is to close above 25000 on Friday. 25980 on the DOW is 2780 on the SPX. Only a weekly close above 25980 would bring the possibility of the bear being dead. However my DAX chart says he bear is well and truly alive.
ReplyDeleteMarkets flying bull flags folk...wow!
ReplyDeleteEnd of Day:
ReplyDeleteImpulse up from Dec low confirmed on all indexes.
Dow & RUT maintained embedded status - SPX & NASDQ did not regain embedded status lost yesterday.
Trigger Line (8 day EMA) continues to act as support.
Down trend line from Oct top being challenged or exceeded on all indexes
From my view, could still be a B wave of expanding flat off 2616 A wave. Seems like another down for a (B) then a C wave back up to lengthen potential ((2)) still on the table.
ReplyDeleteI will defer to others if this is now off the table due to degree violations. I am still learning all the correct validations for those measurements.
Joe, did you delete a post today? I viewed it on my phone, but it's gone.
ReplyDeleteThe charts still show in the 'viewed' section, but they look like old dates.
Thanks.
A new post was started for the day.
ReplyDelete