Wednesday, January 23, 2019

Threes

I wish I could be more clear at this time, but wave structure prevents it. This is all I see in the present moment.

S&P500 Cash Index - 15-Minutes - Two Sets of Threes

Of course the 'threes' could start a diagonal to the down side. If so, there would be a gap down tomorrow. But, we don't know for sure that the second three to the upside is finished yet. I have to keep it simple until we see which way the gaps go.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

33 comments:

  1. ET in yesterday's post, ((ii)) in leading diagonal is longer than 2 in both time and price. Is that a degree violation ?

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    Replies
    1. Joe, im trying to figure out the rules. So for example,
      if we change contracting to expanding
      and move diagonal to fifth wave,
      can then the diagonal contains subwaves larger than those in the impulse?
      https://imgur.com/a/SSTro6Z

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    2. Maybe because the leading diagonal was the extended wave ((ii)) is allowed to be the biggest wave?

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  2. Joe - While we wait for the mess in equities to clear out, can you provide another POV on Gold? The preferred count you posted the last time morphed into a structure which looks like a perfect ABC from the bottom (Aug 2018) with C=A, then another leg up which is exactly 1.618%. Struggling to apply the 8 fold method on this rounded bottom structure. Thanks in advance.

    -TJ

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    Replies
    1. This is all I see on the daily in Gold. With 116 candles on the chart, it should be allowed to see if it can make a non-overlapping fourth wave, per The Eight Fold Path Method. If the fourth wave overlaps, the clear alternate is indicated.

      https://invst.ly/9veuu

      The EWO is headed for a fourth wave signature - unless it busts. If it all busts as A-B-C then it is part of a larger weekly triangle.

      Hope it helps.

      TJ

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  3. Joe, why is it not valid that i ended 3:00 pm on the 22nd and we are in c of an expanded flat to ii?

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    Replies
    1. Now that price has fallen out of the 15-min channel; and overlapped the first wave up, how hard do you want to press that case?

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  4. The up wave since the last lower low - c - has more bars in it than the down from b; so a degree change is probable.

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  5. I know it's different counts on different indices but maybe DJI cash is doing a triangle from 24750 high

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  6. One other possibility i'm looking at is the hourly expanded diagonal C wave Joe showed in yesterdays post is not finished maybe iv finished yesterday and v still to come

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  7. Because of wave overlap, this is all I have so far. Wave count very much up for grabs. Only with a higher high 'could' an ending diagonal overall C wave of a FLAT be considered. We are not there yet.

    https://invst.ly/9vhqs

    TJ

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  8. can b wave of zigzag be triangle?

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  9. Replies
    1. I do see this 'potential' expanding triangle in the 15-minute futures. I thought of it when price stopped at 62%. But it would have to be proven by price crossing over the top again.

      https://invst.ly/9vjj5

      And 'usually', not always, the waves in an expanding triangle, well.. expand in time too.

      TJ

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  10. a done, larger b has triangle as (b) with (c) to come ? patience

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  11. joe if we take out yesterdays low i am considering a failed flat with a failed fifth to kick off (3) down. possible or break every rule in the book?

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  12. also do you want me to post neely charts of different time frames

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  13. When EWT is murky, sometimes traditional technical analysis can help to clarify the picture. Currently on a daily chart all of the major indexes "appear" to be forming bull flags. Notice I say "appear" not are. If so, that would buoy the case for a further upward movement. In addition all of the indexes have been using the 8 day EMA as support for some 13 trading days now. The 8 period EMA is usually a reliable support/resistance gauge of the short term trend.

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  14. Look back to October 3rd to 9th, then 10th and 11th.
    Any similarities?

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    Replies
    1. No, the 8 day EMA was broken to the downside on Oct 4 and then it began to act as resistance instead of support. We are currently above the 8 day EMA acting as support,so not similar at all.

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    2. Heh, you'll see otherwise tomorrow.

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    3. Easy there. I'm not making any predictions, merely observing the technical state of things. If we go down and break the 8 EMA the down it is probably. I'm just pointing out there is a good technical foundation for further up to happen.

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  15. The wave count is currently still "up for grabs". Here is a potential cash triangle. But then (e) 'must' cross down over the 'a' wave.

    https://invst.ly/9vk9w

    The opposite of this count is an expanding diagonal downward from the high. Two entirely and equally valid alternates.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Potential cash triangle still maintained into the close.

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    2. Here's the close.

      https://invst.ly/9vklj

      TJ

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  16. Up wave already "longer in time" than entire down 'a' wave. Especially if it finishes after a triangle, it might need to also correct the 'c' wave down portion, too.

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  17. A new post has been started for the next day.

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