Monthly Prices May Be Wedging

When we look at the longer term monthly chart in the cash S&P500 Index, we see that prices may be wedging over the upper channel line in a "throw-over" pattern.

S&P500 Cash Index - Monthly - Prices Wedging

The five Intermediate Degree waves of my long-standing count (1) through (5) are clearly visible. The degrees of all the lesser waves fit perfectly, and there are no degree conflicts. Price is now over the channel, and at some point in the near future will likely test the upper channel boundary again. I called the top in 2015 - when almost none were expecting it. I called the W-X-Y for Intermediate (4) shortly after it occurred. And - most recently - as most of you know - I called the triangle for Minor wave 4, shown in the next chart: the weekly chart.

S&P500 Cash Index - Weekly - Triangle Minor 4

I personally wrote to a major Elliott Wave service, and informed them of my views before the current recent highs, and explained to them why I thought their count would be incorrect. I did receive replies documenting my submissions, and my count was again proven correct and theirs was incorrect. Let me make it clear, I have nothing against this service. They taught me much of what I learned - just not all. And I still wish to help them.

I did the same for three different popular Elliott Wave web-sites, with similar results.

Now it comes to Crude Oil. Some sites omit a projection on Crude Oil; others have an absolutely ridiculous count that makes no sense in the Elliott wave-world. Therefore, I will take a stab at a count in Crude Oil, using the tried-and-true familiar, rule-based Elliott Wave patterns.

Crude Oil Futures - Monthly - Ending Diagonal Scenario

In 2009, there was a Primary [A] wave down, which is likely part of a zigzag pattern, so there should be a Primary [A], [B], [C] in total. Then, after Primary [A], down, there were three clear Intermediate waves up to a Primary [B] wave in 2011. Next, there was a Minor A wave down in five waves in later 2011, and three waves up to the Minor B wave in mid-2013. This was followed by a clear five wave Minute degree wave as wave Minor C, likely of the Intermediate wave (1) of a diagonal for the five-wave Primary [C] wave.

So far, we appear to be working on a three-wave Minor A-B-C to the Intermediate Wave (2) which should find resistance at the down-trending line from Minor B to Minute (ii). This upward wave has already overlapped the downward Minor A wave of Intermediate (1) at the $75 level.

Then, an Intermediate Wave (3) should occur as another three-wave zigzag and make a marginal new low before two more Intermediate waves (4) and (5) complete the sequence to Primary [C].

Only if the upper dotted trend line is significantly breached, would we consider that Primary [B] was a much, much longer-in-time flat wave, and then, it would have to break through $120. This latter scenario of a FLAT for [B] is a much less conservative scenario. And, I favor the conservative scenario for three reasons: 1) oil can't go much below $0, 2) it would not make much sense to have oil increasing and the stock market declining, and 3) there should be an ending pattern - such as a diagonal - if oil is going to make it's final move lower.

Well, there you go. I haven't seen this count published anywhere else. I haven't discussed it with any one. You are seeing it as a first from me. Let's see how it goes. The only thing I can say is that the degree labels are crystal clear, and all Elliott Wave rules are followed precisely.

Have a good weekend.
TraderJoe