Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; $NAS, $NDX, DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Doji Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
In another narrow, and low volume day, the cash S&P500 Index made a new marginal higher high for the .b wave, but not a new higher high overall. Then, when news about the Paul Manafort deal was released the market quickly headed lower, made a new daily low, and recovered to just about unchanged, but slightly higher on the day. Here is the daily chart for reference.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Narrow Range - Doji |
The .b wave has been intractable, as was suggested. There are a couple of ways to count it. We may have had an ending contracting diagonal at today's high - or it might have just been the smaller degree -b wave of an internal flat wave iv which means another high can not be ruled out. The lower low today could have been the -c wave of that flat internal fourth wave. Of note, today the .b wave became longer in time (in hours) than the .a wave, providing much better time proportionality.
If we had a diagonal, it hasn't met it's target by exceeding the start of the diagonal in much less time than the diagonal took to build. The diagonal likely started at the 2,880 level. Here is an explanatory chart below.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Potential Diagonal |
Right now, such a .b wave counts best as a double zigzag. Try it as w-x-y (a,b,c,x,a,b,c) and see why because of the overlapping wave and which wave has the large gap in it - shown in red circle. The count would be invalid if the .b wave exceeds the prior high of August 30.
Trading below today's low would likely mean the short term trend has turned.
Have a very good start to your evening and to your weekend.
TraderJoe
You can easily do this exercise for yourself. Go to Freestockcharts.com and draw a weekly chart of AMZN. Select the log price scale, and use the line drawing tool to draw a line across the tops from 2016. Then, select the parallel tool (left click on the original line), and draw it parallel to the starting low. Select the Elliott Wave Oscillator as the indicator and follow the instructions in The Eight Fold Path Method. You then tell me which wave you are in. It is not my intent to count stocks for others, but to provide a method.
ReplyDeleteHi Joe. Taking as a start of current wave the minimum of jan-2015, seems me that it is a primary 3 of cycle 3 that allow a 15-20% correction for the next wave 4 to touch de base channel. Correct ? Thanks.
ReplyDelete