Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Although a tad sooner than expected, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made it's new all-time-high today. But, it was expected none-the-less. Further, it appears as if the Dow made the Expanding Diagonal we specifically called for in our prior post that we highlighted for you twice.
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| DJIA Cash - Daily - New All-Time High |
We did not break the rules in counting this wave you see above. Some did. The count from Minor 3 to Minor 4, as we explained is most probably minute ((w)), ((x)), ((y)) - the double zigzag.
The Expanding Diagonal counts as minute ((i)), ((ii)), ((iii)), ((iv)), and ((v)), where minute ((v)) is longer than minute ((iii)), minute ((iii)) is longer than minute ((i)), minute ((iv)) is longer than minute ((ii)), minute ((iv)) overlaps minute ((i)), and minute ((iv)) does not travel below the low of minute ((ii)). Each of the waves is a three-wave zigzag. These are the exact requirements of an Expanding Diagonal.
The significance of the count was to fill the gap at the December / January prior all-time-high. That is now done. All the gaps are obviously currently below the market.
The count is most likely in the minuet (c) wave up of minute ((v)), and it does not look quite completed yet. One would next want to watch for an outside reversal day, down, to indicate that the trend has changed. That is not in evidence, yet.
The S&P500 is likely in minute ((v)), as well, following where we placed the alternate red label on that chart.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thank you your views are always insightful. In your view based on the recent moves in the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 compared to the SPX and Dow, does it look like the Nasdaq and Russell need to play catch up for new all time highs or possibly they have already topped and are currently in a wave 2 of a further move down?
ReplyDeleteI can find one way to count the Ndx to a new high. I have more trouble with the R2K.
DeleteAgreed the ending diagonal on the R2K looks difficult to top
DeleteI find it truly stunning, that with all the plethora of evidence suggesting that we are in a terminal wave at a very significant top,you are the only EW analyst I have seen who has provided a conunt that fits with the evidence,in particular the dramatic collapse of market breadth. We have gone a lot farther on virtually non-existent volume, than I would have thought possible. It seems to me unlikely that we have much upside potential with a deterioration of both volume and breadth. I think something big lies just ahead.
ReplyDeleteYes, even on yesterday's up day, breadth was only about 2:1. Fairly narrow.
DeleteIs there a count that would support a pull-back to 2830 - 2800 and then a rally to 3000 plus before years end?
ReplyDeleteTJ, thanks again for all the updates and posts you’ve written with your excellent analysis of the market. As I’m most interested in long term trends I’m hoping to get some of your thoughts sometime in the next month or two about what you see in the future once this fifth wave of the fifth wave completes in the S&P. I remember reading something you either wrote or mentioned on a video a while back on the culmination of a super cycle which, if I recall correctly, will complete after this market tops. I don’t really know what a “super cycle” means but I would assume it has something to do with the length of this uptrend since 2009. I know we’re heading for a more bearish market but do you foresee a more serious market crash than we had during the ’07—’08 drop? I’m not asking so much about EW analysis but more of an overview or an op-ed (or even a video!) of what you are expecting in the next few years. Things just seem to be falling apart all over this country and perhaps the market will follow suite. I would be very grateful and truly value your comments on this and, of course, it would not be taken as investment advice as you say. : )
ReplyDeleteThank you very much! rose
Welcome.
DeleteHmmm. I just don't see this market hitting a top anytime soon.
ReplyDeleteShould find some resistance at the weekly trend line going up through 3 - just like it broke down from there before.
Deleteok cool. thx for your input.
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