Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed lower
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
It was yet another light day for trading in U.S. equities, today with only 2.9 billion shares traded. Stock prices were in a bit of trouble from before the open. The Labor Department reported an increase in wage pressures which leans in favor of higher interest rates (even though there were substantial downward revisions to job totals in prior months).
Stocks, as measured by the S&P500 Index, had closed Thursday at 2,878. They gapped lower by -10 points at the open, dropped four more points to 2,864, making a new daily lower low, and then rallied to +5 points around 11:30 am. About that time, comments hit the news wires that more tariffs were potentially ready for China, and stocks began to slip again. They fell to within two points of the low, and then had a six point rally to close at 2,872, or down roughly 6 points on the day. All-in-all a very whippy day with a downside bias.
Here is the daily chart of the cash S&P500 Index.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Lower Low Day |
Downward wave counting within minute (iv) continues. Price has now lost the support of the mid-line of the channel which argues even for a higher probability that the larger degree wave (iv) is now being constructed.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator continues with red histogram bars, is declining and still above the zero line.
Avid readers of this blog might like to try three exercises. First, try drawing a line from the exact high of wave (i) to the exact high of wave (iii). You'll note it is still roughly parallel to the lower boundary of the channel shown. Next, draw a line across the tops of the hourly candles for the last seven days. That line needs to be exceeded upward before additional wave labels are placed. And thirdly, have a look at the Russell 2000 Index futures on the hourly chart. You'll note the diagonal we pointed out yesterday for it's wave v of ((v)) was proved out by prices this morning closing lower than the start of the diagonal - in less time than it took the diagonal to build.
Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Joe, here's a thought and a count. In SPX, if wave 1 went from 1810 to 2111, and wave 2 was a running correction that ended at 2084, then wave 3 was exactly 2.618 of wave 1. Since wave 3 was the extended wave and really went the max of 2.618, then it would be logical that 5=1. If wave 4 ended at 2595, then 2916 is only 20 points beyond the length of wave 1. Even though I find the move from 2595 as uncountable, especially when considering the DOW and NYA, the big picture count that I have presented says that 2916 could have been the end. Supporting this count is the parallel channel that has the 0-2 line at the bottom, and the top line starting at 2111. It shows wave 3 going way outside the top line, and then wave 4 coming back to the bottom line, and then wave 5 hitting the top line and reversing.
ReplyDeleteOTOH, if wave 4 didn't end until the 6/28 low, then 5 would equal 1 at 2993.
What do you mean? For months and months you have done nothing but tell me and the readers here both the larger count and smaller count were 'corrective' counts. You have insisted that the down count has already started as 1-W-X-Y, and now you steal one of the two impulse counts I have already shown several times, and say that you "have presented" it ??!! You need to do some soul-searching brother.
Delete1. I have never once claimed that the count from the 1/26 high was a 1-W-X-Y. I have always said that it was an A-w-x-y, and that may very well still be the count, considering what the DOW and NYA have done. If a top is in, then you surely can't claim that the DOW and NYA truncated.
Delete2. The point of my post was to show how 2916 could have been the end based on the 5=1 measurement. I do not recall you ever mentioning that measurement before.
3. I have not stolen anything. No one "owns" a count. Everyone can see what the potential valid counts are at all times. The fact that each analyst favors one valid count over another, does not mean that he/she owns that count. When I say I "presented" a count, I was referring to what I described in my post at that moment.
4. Unless wave 4 ended at the 6/28 low, then I don't see a 5th wave anywhere, because I see everything from either the 4/2 or 5/3 lows as uncountable as an impulse wave. Nevertheless, for the purposes of my previous post, I measured from the 5/3 low, even though I said that move was uncountable. While it has been uncountable, it has not been unmeasureable.
You have shown me, both on this blog, and on others, including in the response above that you have no particular wave counting prowess. I am not listening to anything you have to say.
DeleteHi Joe!
ReplyDeleteWhat do you think of the possebility of minute (iv) was made as a sharp from 7/8-15/8?
Thanks!
// Erik
Personally I don’t think it’s plausible at all, but is it possible?
DeletePossible? Yes. Likely? No. Most likely the '.b' wave of a sharp .a-.b-.c would break the descending hourly tops line from the all-time-high. That has not happened yet in a convincing way.
DeleteAny one knows what EWI is now saying about all the egg on their faces over their ridiculous top-bleating? 😱
ReplyDeleteThey said, "we did not expect the S&P500 to make a new high", and that only a few stocks were responsible for it
DeleteIguess nothing much has changed since I ditched my subscription in disgust a few years back. They remain incompetent at anything other than loosing their subscibers money. They apparently have also still not learned the simple phrase: "We were wrong".
Delete