From Bad to Worse

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Yesterday, I thought we had started the .c wave down. While that scenario appeared to be correct, even into the after-hours, with the ES E-Mini futures down -12 points, there was a turn-around, beginning at about 6 PM, that led to a gap higher open. Further, the S&P500 Cash Index made a new marginal high above what was formerly labeled the .b wave. As a result this very short term count was proven wrong, and so was I.

While the S&P500 did not make a new all-time high, the DOW made a new recovery high for the move. Further, the potential diagonal we showed in the hourly count was not proven out, because it was not fully retraced in less time than in took to build it. As a result, the very short term count has gotten very murky. Can we still be in a .b wave? Yes, until or unless the cash S&P500 goes over the prior all-time high. Is it possible we are still in minute (iii)? Right now that seems less likely due to the downward overlap I described in prior posts, but I'll have to look at that possibility more closely.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily

For right now, I am showing the .b wave count again, until or unless it invalidates. As I said while entering the .b wave, they can be very intractable and difficult to count, and that may be what we have here. For the day, the cash S&P500 was up about +16 points, earning back - at the close - about what it lost at yesterday's close.

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green. rising, and above the zero line. Taking out yesterday's low would be needed to enter into a .c wave lower.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe