Flaky Day

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed mixed
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Higher Close - Doji Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Yesterday we said that, because of the holiday, that today could be a flaky day. It was. Stocks as measured by the cash S&P500 Index had closed Thursday at 2,901. Initially, stocks had a small gap down at the outset and traded down five points to 2,896. Immediately after the open, the market reversed, filled the opening gap, and traded higher to 2,906, a ten point swing. 

Then, around 10:15 am, a decline began to a new lower low at 2,891, a fifteen point swing, and making a new daily lower low. Beginning at around 12:30 pm ET, a couple of rally attempts lifted the market to close at 2,901; virtually unchanged.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Doji Candle

The Elliott Wave Oscillator is still green, rising and above the zero line. It has not broken higher yet, but could, in the next couple of trading sessions.

We have often noted here, that the last trading day of the month is often 'sloppy' due to window dressing. This day was no exception. We have also noted the first trading day of the new month (Tuesday, for cash equities) is often positive due to the typical influx of funds from pension plans, retirement funds, 401k's, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc. 

If that should be the case again, then, it is highly possible wave .iv wrapped up this morning at the low. That would likely mean any higher all-time high wave would confirm the onset of a sub-minuet wave .v of minuet v of wave minute (iii).

Have a very good start to your evening, and to your long weekend. See you on Tuesday.
TraderJoe