Countable Triangle

From Thursday's post on the daily chart, we said it was likely we were forming a running triangle as a fourth wave. Friday's lower open provided the e wave of the triangle, which overlapped the prior wave iii, making a valid running triangle. In a running triangle, wave e must always overlap it's prior iii wave (or A wave if the running triangle is the B wave of a zigzag) in order to be corrective to it.

This wave did that, and then headed higher, as expected, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average even making a new high since it's up trend began on April 2. Here is the daily chart of the S&P500 Cash Index, for reference.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Completed Triangle

The five zigzag waves of the triangle help assure there are no degree violations within the up wave, and better equalize the net distance traveled by waves ii and iv.  The likelihood of being in the minute (iii) wave only was also increased by this fresh new high for the New York Advance-Decline line.

NY Advance-Decline Line - Daily - Fresh New High

It is unlikely to start a full-fledged bear market while the A/D line is making new all-time highs. For perspective, the weekly chart of  the S&P500 Cash Index is below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Weekly

Everything from the weekly chart still seems satisfactory with the making of a minute (iii) wave higher within Minor 5. The weekly EWO is still green and rising, but still lower than the prior high. It is likely that minute (iii) would reach new all time highs, thenafter a minute (iv) pullback.

Hope you're having a good weekend.
TraderJoe