A SPY Among Us

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher; NDX, DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close -  Doji Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

In this volatile and slow slog higher, the market as measured by the S&P500 Cash Index, ($SPX) made a higher daily high and went on to retreat a bit toward the end of the session, still closing higher by about +7 points. There is nothing remarkable here.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Doji

It should be noted that the Elliott Wave Oscillator on the above chart is now green and still above zero. There are a finite number of ways this wave could play out. But, in any event, new local highs and all-time highs are expected at some point.

For those who might not follow such things regularly, the SPY (the ETF of the $SPX) has already broken out to new all-time-highs, as below.

SPY - Daily - At New All-Time Highs

This of course completely insures that the SPY above, simply can not be counted as 1, down, and a 2 up, from the January low to here. Granted the SPY includes the dividends that the $SPX pays, and is not reflective of "price only", but it also lends a very, very high probability (> 98%) that the $SPX will follow this count and be counted as Minor 5, now near or later over it's December highs. Otherwise an index and it's ETF would be grossly out of step in terms of the wave sequence. Might be interesting to watch that RSI divergence, however.

Sorry bears, but at this point, the triangle count for Minor wave 4 has just about been completely proved out.

Have a good start to your evening and to your week.
TraderJoe