Yesterday, we pointed out three options for local price movement. The NQ futures made a new daily low today. The ES futures did not. I don't know if you had the money to stop the ES futures from declining through the lows today, but somebody did. Twice! The exceptional number of double-bottoms is getting very suspicious. The ES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr chart is below.
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| SPX500 (CFD) - 1 Hr - Double-Bottom? |
With the higher local high around noon there is now the possibility, not the certainty, of sub-waves ① and ② of a third wave, iii, upward, as these waves are currently shorter in price & time than the larger degree waves i and ii, the prior higher degree waves in the same directions.
There is nothing definitive that rules out further down movement at this point, and it is still possible that the (e) wave could be a triangle itself.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Just fyi - from CNBC
ReplyDeleteIran Attacks U.S.
TJ
SPX500 1 hr - the higher high suggests sketching in a preliminary channel to see if price can hold it.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ZmUX2EP6/
TJ
Thanks Tj. Is possible (e) wave triangle ruled out?
DeleteI said, above in the post. No. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj. I missed it. Do you do count on currencies USD/JPY or 10 yr bond of a US or Jspan? A lot of fear that yen carry trade is getting over as Bank of Japan under pressure to bring all their money back and invest in their bond markets dud yo raised interest rate.
DeleteManu .. I am showing you & all 'how' to count. Now 'count'. Do not rely on me or you won't be able to do it for yourself. TJ.
DeleteHonestly I havd tried a lot and every time I fail miserably and then I keep changing counts. I only do better on Longer term counts.
Delete1) You can not be afraid to make mistakes, 2) no Elliott analyst has ever gotten 'every' wave correct, 3) degree labeling IF you will learn it, saves a lot of mistakes. Smaller degree waves 'must' be smaller in price & time. TJ
DeleteSPY 30 minutes
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/JmCMdpdm
Tough to count, but the trend is still in place. Watch the indicators for positive divergence on this upcoming new low.
SPX500 30-min: intraday wave-counting screen. Down to S1. Watch the prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QYPErdsi/
TJ
..now down through prior low. Downward counts get more interesting. Still not down through the (e) wave low.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0HF4Ft80/
TJ
..now down through (e) wave low. As far as I can tell, the triangle is void for the moment. TJ.
DeleteES 12-hr: so the best downward count I can suggest that follows degree labeling is this one.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5t3WLqlc/
I've had my eye on it for a while. That's why that (e) had a question mark (?) next to it.
TJ
It's a complex wave (ii) as w-x-y; and the internal wave structures are very difficult in that the 'y' is larger than the 'w'. There's nothing wrong with that it doesn't break the rules or degree labeling. It just means that y & w must be of the 'same degree'. This is also a "running flat" wave that would be an omen for a significant drop.
Delete..and as a reminder of what was stated before, note that 'x' is shorter than (i), again upholding degree labeling. TJ.
DeleteWill close above today's high or above what level should invalidate this count? Also, didn't understand that D(seems error) marked at today’s high?
Deletethe D means delayed quote is all. TJ.
DeleteIt seems markets pricing interest rate hike.
ReplyDeleteStarting from 2020, one has to keep this count in mind for qqq and also spy as one possibilty. Ignore the degree but just to give the idea
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MVVZLXzJ/
'garbage' unless you tell me where you wave one 'starts'. TJ.
DeleteTold you 2020. After covid dip
Deleteyou'd have to prove there are valid five-wave sequences. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min - From the intraday wave-counting-screen. There is now greater than a 1.618 wave in place. The intraday slow stochastic is embedded, and on the futures there is 18 SMA bear-cross 100-MA. This "looks like" the guerilla-glue trade for the moment. If it's part of a good down wave, it 'could' go to 2.618 x but is not required to.
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TJ
It bothers me a little that I'm not seeing capitulation style volume in SPY.
ReplyDeleteWe got that spike before the day was out
DeleteSPX500 1 Hr: this is all I see at the moment. I can't rule out a diagonal down, especially if rates are not raised.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vMjowZn9/
TJ
..overlap warning has triggered. TJ.
Delete(From (CNBC) Federal Reserve
ReplyDeleteFederal Reserve holds interest rates steady, as expected
@manu .. do you see how pointless what you worry about is?
ReplyDelete"manuJuly 29, 2026 at 10:35 AM
It seems markets pricing interest rate hike."
Just 'count waves' period.!
TJ
True. (iii) of III should take less time than I ?
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 1 hr - watch invalidation closely
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TJ
just a reminder - there are some big earnings after the close, including conference calls which could result is a lot of volatility. See if the wave counts complete in an orderly fashion. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (30 min) - with the lower low bar, there is now overlap on the upward wave, too.
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The lower low suggests putting the wave-counting-stop at the high of the bar.
TJ
..and the FOMC low is exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/kwVYLv2K/
TJ
..down wave is now 'longer' than prior down wave, so an expanding diagonal is 'validated'. But 1) it can go lower, and 2) the retrace tonight - if there is one - could also be wild - like a big zigzag, double-zigzag or a triangle. It should be an 'algo mess'. TJ.
DeleteES Daily - rollover futures have exceeded the prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/m6tL0Aar/
TJ
Algo mess: "2) the retrace tonight - if there is one - could also be wild - like a big zigzag, double-zigzag or a triangle. It should be an 'algo mess'."
ReplyDeleteNDX Fomc yesterday high broken.
ReplyDeleteFor manu ..
ReplyDeleteJapanese Yen Surges
TJ
Thanks. Now if BOJ raises interest then money will flow back.
DeleteGood listen..https://youtu.be/YBhwK-VWsxY?si=yROZS2yEL6BZm6uo
DeleteThe monthly Yen count 'looks' pretty easy. It could turn out to be A-B-C with C as a 'center-line failure'. But you could do this, no?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lNIvtgHN/
Problem is that monthly the upturn is so small, as to not be countable yet. There might be an ending diagonal, weekly or daily, but that has to be 'confirmed' as over by larger waves upward. Right?
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. There are three closes above the upper band into the R1 daily pivot. This drops the odds to 2 - 5 % (not impossible, just lower odds) of the next close outside of the band.
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At this time there is no 'power' bar downward.
TJ
...now a close inside the band (with LL candles) resets the number of consecutive closes.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mF4WpN5k/
The intraday slow stochastic has lost its embedded status; 'possible' for price and the 18-period to come together again. 1) can be viewed as a 'failure' inside the R1 daily pivot , 2) would be better confirmed by downward overlap on 22:00 ET.
TJ
Just for learning. Isn't today's move crossed the x or i for this count? Say iii was yesterday's low. Is it still valid?
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5t3WLqlc/
ii didn't overlap. So count still valid?
DeleteNQ 4-hr: the down move looks pretty good as a fully diagonal, but I CAUTION there is an equal and alternate way to view it in red. 'Typically' fifth waves of diagonals are 1.618, so that is why the full diagonal is the main count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/iqGNEw51/
TJ
Thanks Tj. This is the part where I get confused. How to confirm that iv and v of 5 w.r.t degree violation and time and also it is only when the 5 is crossed downward then only we can confirm downward diagonal? correct?
Delete1) iv, up, in 5 is smaller than previous (b) up - higher degree wave in the same up direction. v down in 5 is smaller than previous (a) down of 5 - higher degree wave in the same down direction. 2) yes.
DeleteThanks for clarifying. Also, I understood alternate red but how you decide on an equal weight age?
DeleteSPX near wave counting stop. Difficult to count waves :)
ReplyDeletedid you use The-Eight-Fold Path Method with 120 - 160 candles for the whole up wave? The "wave of interest" ? TJ
DeleteYes and it did not hit the downward overlap on 22:00 ET
ReplyDeleteStill this count seems valid. https://www.tradingview.com/x/5t3WLqlc/
Right. It did not hit the overlap. TJ.
DeleteReminder: AAPL and AMZN earnings after the close. TJ.
ReplyDeletehttps://x.com/WarrenPies/status/2082905653836730724
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) -15 min: 'five-up' over the high; with no overlap and 3 > 1. The very definition of an a/i wave. AAPL yet to report.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2t4o3xe5/
TJ
AMZN: (from CNBC)
ReplyDeleteEarnings per share: $5.75 a share. That may not compare with the $1.82 per share expected by LSEG
Revenue: $200.61 billion vs. $196.47 billion estimated
TJ
AAPL: (from CNBC)
ReplyDeleteEPS: $2.02, which isn’t comparable to analyst estimates of $1.89.
Revenue: $109.42 billion, versus $108.65 billion estimated.
TJ
Yesterday Meta down and Microsoft up gave 915p on NDX. Today Appl down and Amxn up will do what?
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ