We said we were counting GOLD in parallels until we could no longer. The latest parallel comes from the GOLD (GC futures) 4-Hr chart below. The parallel is shown in blue. As the orange dashed line shows there is no downward overlap as yet.
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| GOLD (GC Futures) - 4 Hr - Parallel |
Still, what can be seen and measured is that the fourth wave (iv) is longer than the largest depth of the prior wave (ii) as the Fibonacci ruler shows. So, the two waves should be of the same degree or else the recent down wave is of one larger degree. For the moment, we'll suggest they are the same degree until / unless there is overlap.
Next, we see that wave (iv) breaks the Neely-style 0 - (ii) trend line suggesting this down wave is really a fourth wave. The fourth wave still looks corrective, and can be counted as a simple a,b,c (not shown).
So, the chart suggests there will be a fifth wave up. It also suggests that wave (v) will be shorter than the longest wave (iii) that could be drawn because wave (iii) is shorter than wave (i). This suggests a clear invalidation point that readers of this blog should attempt to locate as an exercise. In this case, because of uncertainty in the length of (ii) a small range is acceptable.
A fourth thing to note is the potential truncation at the low on the 8th, and also possibly in wave (ii). Gold has been exceptionally strong, so downward truncations are potentially to be expected, and they should not be counted as additional i-ii's.
So, if a fifth wave (v) forms as a new high, and if it remains shorter than (iii) then one could begin to look for confirmation steps of a turn. The first would be a break of the wave (ii)-to-(iv) trend line in less time than wave (v) took to form. The second step would be trading below wave (iv). And a third step would be trading below wave (ii).
And, if a fifth wave does not form, then perhaps the three waves up are just the B wave part of a larger triangle correction to become more apparent in the future. And if (v) becomes longer than (iii), then likely a diagonal of some sort will need to be considered.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend and holiday if you are celebrating it,
TraderJoe
GC 5-min: here is a look at the Sunday night open in GOLD.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qTapCrP3/
TJ
by measurement iii > i, and can go further if it wants. TJ.
DeleteAnother futures gap down in the indices. Will they fill it? 😊
ReplyDeleteGOLD (GC) 90-min: a divergence on the Eight-Fold-Path Method; I'm getting the distinct feeling that no-one cares.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/29RWZuW8/
TJ
I care, but having not mastered the Method, I must toll away at my 8-5 job and not chart all day :) I am also awestruck in a sense that we got a 15% move on gold in 7 trading sessions. Part of me has to be skeptical that I'm not missing an "even bigger" wave. I'm following as you post and making my own charts too, appreciate your insight as always.
Deletesee below @ 11:17. TJ.
DeleteGOLD (GC) 5-min: looks to me like we had a 'failed' fifth in a diagonal. As, by measurement, the down wave is too long for a continued contracting diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tXxEug2R/
TJ
I'd put a 'wave-counting-stop' above the 3,442 high. TJ.
DeleteThe gold monthly looks like the classic commodity blow off top.
ReplyDeleteYep..I was assuming a 5th up at some degree.
DeletePls see below @ 12:25 pm. TIA. TJ.
DeleteThere was a person a while back, named Tachy, that said the move off the cup and handle was going to be epic! 😆
ReplyDeleteGOLD Cash: Long Term: I don't know. Seems like a Cycle IV wave would be too short and not have alternation unless we might be building a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/oiRRprvf/
But no one cares. Complacency rules.
TJ
Thanks TJ, following along. DXY looks like it could be nearing a bottom soon too, a reversal could have an impact on gold.
DeleteWelcome. TJ.
DeleteNow...*that* is a chart that would capture current sentiment. It's easier to have a gold correction of 15%-20% in couple weeks time when you have already gone vertically up 15% the last two weeks.
DeleteGC 5-min: MACD on this time scale confirms a lower high with a drop below 0.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mk8kAkiy/
Move the warning level down to the new location. But until there is a lower low, I'd leave the actual wave-counting-stop back at the high-of-day.
TJ
ES 4-Hr: the 10 Apr low has been undercut. TJ.
ReplyDeleteApril 4 low on deck.
ReplyDeleteGC 5-min: Gold did make a lower low but is now back challenging the warning level. IFF it goes over the top again, maybe look for a longer in time diagonal. But not there yet. TJ.
ReplyDeleteGC 1-hr: still keeping an eye on a compressing pattern like this; either an ending diagonal or a 'b' wave of a larger fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0Rbyx8PW/
TJ
I would think the gold long term bullish count is the wheels of the debt bus are coming off and we are approaching the point of recognition 3 of 3.
ReplyDeleteYep. Likely heralding the demise of fiat currency and central banksters. Remarkable how very few understand Trump's primary mission is to channel Andrew Jackson. Distracted by the noise, and completely missing the signal.
DeleteI believe you are being way, way to generous. I think 46 and 47 were lucky to mentally get through the day.
DeleteGOLD (XAU/USD) Daily - here's a thought on the daily chart. Is one more high possible? Yes, it depends if this leg down is corrective or not. But note the measurements.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/1a3nae
TJ
..the measurement is compared to the third wave. TJ.
DeleteGOLD (GC Futures) 5-min: here is the local count off the high, starting with a legit expanding diagonal from the overnight. So far, there is a channel, but the Principle of Equivalence says we must see properly constructed waves for an impulse. They are not there yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xI20zBYk/
TJ
While the focus seems to be on the Gold futures market, I have been quietly counting a Bearish Impulse in the S&P 500 Index:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jkzhODI3/
One can see that there has not been any upward overlap of the lows of 13 March or 31 March, which would invalidate this impulse count. And as pointed out by Trader Joe yesterday in this blog, the lows of 10 April were also broken yesterday.
Yesterdays low could count the end of a Micro degree 5-wave bearish impulse, the first of 5 waves in Minute wave circle-v, which should take this market to new lows. Or it could have been just the first wave in an extended Micro degree 5th wave. Or a more immediate bearish alternate is a nested count of 1-2, 1-2, for a big third wave coming up in Minute wave circle-v.
But barring another "insider trading" dog whistle Tweet 🤡, it looks to me like the direction of this market is downward.
An alternate, more Bullish count would be a complex correction is taking place from the lows of 7 April.
Or more likely, a more complex Minute wave circle-iv is still taking place. I think that these alternates are growing less likely each day, however. 🤔
HG.. correct, but please note the down wave - no matter where you start from is "longer in time" than the prior down wave, as shown. That means it is very unlikely to be a sub-wave in the decline.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ibh9cl9q/
It 'might' be part of a triangle, that I sketched out earlier, or it might be part of the more complex correction you suggested, meaning a 'C' wave lower could follow it, but 'might not' break the low unless it is forming a Flat.
TJ
Thanks for the feedback TJ. 😊
DeleteYes, that is one of the things about this decline which bothers me. Also, that impulse legs circle-i and circle-iii count better as "threes" than as "fives". Yet there is still no overlap, so I have been sticking to a Bearish impulse count, rather than a diagonal (which might count better).
Is there some kind of Elliott Wave Rule or Guideline which states that a subwave of an impulse (of a lesser degree) cannot take longer in time than a previous subwave of the same impulse of the next higher degree?
HG .. it's the definition of the term degree. A smaller degree wave can not actually be 'longer in time' than a higher degree wave. Please listen to this Glenn Neely interview if you have not heard it already.
Deletehttps://www.neowave.com/audiointerviews/201710/interview.mp3
TIA,
TJ.
Thanks TJ, that is very helpful!
DeleteHenry, I agree that circle1 and circle3 count best as 'threes'. If we never get the required overlap to validate a diagonal, then I will look at abcxabcx or even a triple zigzag if we get a new low.
Delete👍Roy C. I have updated my chart, see link below.
DeleteGOLD (GC) 5-min: note any trading in this wave above 3,457+ would eliminate a nested count (longer than b/ii and a degree violation). Not there yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/03MWTn4s/
But it would not eliminate later diagonal considerations.
TJ
there is 3,458.5 .. looks like nesting is out. TJ.
Deletethere is a lower low in GC; possible larger diagonal brewing from the initial a/b/c. TJ.
DeleteGOLD (GC) 1-hr: GOLD is not playing super-nice at the moment. However, since it made a higher EWO in the overnight, and appears to have a fourth wave signature now (without overlap and just less than 62%), it is suggested that this count be watched to see if a fifth wave develops. (The fourth may also need time to make a triangle). The count is 'mushy' at the moment.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xRJvLtQH/
IF the overlap warning is triggered instead, it might be signs of a much deeper correction. And a Bloomberg headline today,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-22/western-investors-are-piling-into-bullion-after-3-year-hiatus
TJ
Overlap attained based on GLD ETF after hours prices...did I hear a "popping" sound?
DeleteBased on today's strong upward rebound, and taking into account TJ's comments about degree, I have updated my count of the S&P 500 Index:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ko143fOT/
I think that the preferred count must now move to the alternate of a more complex Minuette wave (iv), still in progress in Subminuette wave c.
And if the market successfully breaks above the wave (iv) contracting triangle and overlaps the low of 13 March [5,504.65], I think that the next best Bearish alternate count is that it may be making a Minor wave 2 of a leading diagonal. This alternate could also resolve the fact that the larger (Minute) waves of the decline since 19 February seem to count best as "threes", instead of "fives". 💭
Trump news
DeleteIndeed! Mr Market apparently has decided to leave no "unfinished business" and close remaining overhead gaps. Silly folk think Trump jawboning about a China deal being "close" has any bearing whatsoever on reality. Kabuki theatre..
Deletewell done Henry
DeleteGold cfd. Watching for diagonal, or waiting fot further clarification. If it reaches 5 in the next few hours, it will have retraced further in price and time than most recent up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/Ps81P4c2
A new post is started for the next day,
ReplyDeleteTJ.