Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Rules Not Broken

Nothing about this count breaks the 'rules' of Elliott Wave. The overnight wave is the very definition of impulsivity.


Wave iv may be a failed 'double-combination' wave. It is 13 bars long compared to wave iii's 8 bars. So, it is longer in time, as Neely likes to see. Also wave iv breaks the Neely 0 - ii trend line.

Price is down at the lower daily Bollinger Band. Can it go lower? It can. We'll be on the watch.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

29 comments:

  1. I believe that the above chart is not in agreement with step 6 of the eight-fold path.

    I have come to believe that these short two and long fours, and vise versa, are an attempt to force an impulse when the odds are very low.

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    1. It's doesn't 'precisely' follow TEFPM, but it is a 'first' wave. The part that is off is 180 candles instead of 160. I'll take it any time.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/kdAlN0Gd/

      TJ

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  2. TJ, Is this EWO behavior what one might expect to see if a wave 5 is the extended wave doing a blow-off top?

    https://imgur.com/9VevQyP

    Waves one and three are close to equality.

    Thank you.

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    1. I know. I get it. I'll get criticized because five is not 'also' longer than three in 'time' as well as in price.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/AYDWLWYY/

      I'm showing this example because diagonals DO NOT always work out perfectly in time, too. Sometimes, the market is either in a 'hurry' because of 'news' or it takes it frickin' time and the third waves become quite long in diagonals. Please understand, I am 'not' responsible for news.

      TJ

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  3. Overnight corrective channel?

    https://imgur.com/aE2QbCh

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  4. A new ES low and one would have to monitor the lock on the trap door.

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    1. Counting either 4 of 5 or 1 of 5 done. Hard for me to imagine anyone counting this decline as anything other than a 3rd wave!

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    2. @Tachy ..Dow (futures) hasn't even made a new low, as yet.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/trqKZN0x/

      TJ

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    3. ..and see below @ 12:50 PM. Both red & blue work at this moment. TJ.

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    4. True! Any doubt about it? 😊

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  5. GOLD (GC Futures) 1 hr : GOLD has come back to 62% and the underside of the diagonal. Worth monitoring.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/Kii7TKSy/

    TJ

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  6. ES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. It looks to me like other counts would 'break-the-rules'.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/M3CaKmHg/

    TJ

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    1. ..both red & blue are long enough to satisfy the expanding diagonal. TJ.

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    2. wave 3 is the longest wave in price; where we are now does 'not' have the acceleration of a third-of-a-third. TJ.

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  7. Btw, I was not stating what degree of a 3rd. I am happy to concede a possible 3 of a 5th!

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  8. The lower high in some volatility instruments does in fact suggest a 5th down.

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  9. Anybody entertaining a b wave today?

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    1. Looks pretty chunky since the overnight high.

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  10. Just fyi - NYSE adv / dec = 415 / 2,378 or roughly 1 : 5.7, still no 1 : 9 through 1 : 12 'kick-off' yet. TJ.

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  11. SPY 15-min: there's the lower low in five-down. Can go further.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/9fKzsnuo/

    TJ

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    1. The count would be like this 'in cash'; not the futures. Five down would be over if the market trades above ④; not until or unless.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/CaxgGnBC/

      Yes, I know the futures had a higher high. I am counting them a bit differently.
      TJ

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  12. Joe, i was quite skeptical that we could see a contracting diagnal of high degree, Regardless now if it occurs its a legendary great call.

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    1. You yourself called a smaller degree diagonal just a day ago. It wound up being ending & not leading. That's how it goes. The same pattern can be 'both' a leading and an ending pattern. You did a good job. It is the wave principle itself which makes life difficult. TJ.

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  13. I have to agree with BB that that 4th wave is ugly as sin. No surprise though. Looks like the market masters were hell-bent on arresting the impulse and morphing the pattern into yet another chaotic, confusing 3 wave affair. Mr. Market said "NYET!" Seems whether an A or 1, turbulent times ahead!

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  14. monthly 18ma hit - not much lower, maybe 5350 though :)

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  15. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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