Here's a look at the 10 Yr US Gov't Note Yield on a weekly close basis, the way I have counted since the low, so far.
IF we've completed a triangle, and it looks it, then there could be one good pop up to 5.5 - 6%. The MACD looks very flat and near the zero line. The Minor E wave of the triangle did come back to cross over the Intermediate (3) wave to the left, validating a potential running triangle. The next expectation would be to exceed the high of wave B at minimum.
One might note that considering just the A wave as a (4)th wave location, instead, does not provide good alternation with wave (2). The triangle provides excellent alternation and is much longer in time, as well.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
ES 1-Hr: nothing has invalidated yet. Market doing the side-step for now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eoc3iEbF/
TJ
Thanks for the update.
DeleteWelcome wiz. TJ.
DeleteES 1-hr: things have gotten a bit worse after the evening open. One should keep an eye on potential impulse invalidation if there is overlap, as shown. There are still 'ways' this could be a fourth wave, but we had 'five-up' on the open this morning. We just didn't make a new high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/FInxrs16/
TJ
The spike after open looked like it was from a triangle, I'm wondering if it was a truncated 5 of B
DeleteGC gold. This move off 4/14 local bottom is still very choppy. Could an expanding diagonal be an option for wave 5 of this move since 4/7?
ReplyDeletehttps://ibb.co/qMx7t0Cp
It looks like the last two days was a wave iv triangle.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC1!/2eWuH1be-Gold-Wave-Count/
no, i can not be smaller degree than 1, because it is actually longer in price. Degree definition. TJ.
Deleteno, triangles, are usually just before the last wave; you have it just before two last waves. TJ.
DeleteRare gap down in futures. YM gap, remarkably, also closed in after-hours. Ominous signs....
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen; looking to see if a Flat forms for a second wave. Not 'sure' b is done, but it could be.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tw4d0gM1/
TJ
GOLD (GC futures) 30-min: GC has a pretty hefty divergence from its slow stochastic oscillator at a new all-time high 3335.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PaLX64To/
Bears watching for a potential diagonal or barrier triangle. Intraday bias is still 'up' with price over the intraday 18-per SMA until it isn't.
TJ
GC 30-min: close above the 18-period SMA; local 'swing line' is a higher high and a lower low. TJ.
DeleteGC 30-min: now two closes over the upper intraday band, making the odds about 4 - 6% of the next close over the band.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/puqqz1ia/
TJ
GC 30-min: two closes inside the band. High so far 3349; still closed over the intraday 18-per SMA so bias is still up. Number of consecutive closes is reset.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OhjWrIgI/
TJ
5th waves in Gold ( and Silver) behave like commodities. The can run for awhile!
DeleteES has sure struggled at the 18 day per Ira Epstein. I have no idea on the count at this time.
ReplyDeleteIf depends if trump tweets or or surprise with some good news then this is a b triangle of B(bigger triangle). If bad news next few days then triangle playing to downside. Tj posted that chart a couple of days ago.
Delete...and we could be in a diagonal. Given all those possibilities, I am getting the boat ready for fishing.
DeleteLol
DeleteReel? Or Net? 😂
DeleteI will give a stab at the intermediate term count. The rally off the panic lows Monday is the a wave of either a larger A wave or a more bearish B wave. If so, the sell today is b wave, with another significant rally phase above this weeks high in c of a or B. At point bull or bear will be decided, likely depending on whether trade talks turn positive before signs of recession lands. I'm often wrong.
ReplyDeleteThe target for c of A or B decision point is near SPX 6000
DeleteIf they move up to the highs again, the Vix will have a double bottom at 28 with strong bull divergences. The chance of spx revisiting the lows is high at that point.
DeleteES 1-Hr: here's a couple of channels to keep an eye on. Daily bias is still lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JbPAY4AC/
On the intraday wave-counting-screen, the intraday bias is still lower until above 5,340. But price is below the band in an over-sold condition intraday.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/38jw60nQ/
TJ
now a HH bar; upward overlap on the daily pivot and previous down waves. Down sequence since 03:00 ET 'could be' corrective. TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: there's the overlap at the pivot; price now up to the 18-per SMA.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NXJ5GE2T/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ