Two options are shown on this SPY hourly chart. The blue option is for a contracting triangle followed by a new higher high. The second option is that the triangle breaks down and a green c wave forms for green wave (ii) of a diagonal.
One concern is that not all of red wave 3 is above a line from 0 - 2, so those waves from 04 Nov through 11 Nov might only be green a,b,c of green (i) of a larger diagonal wave. Another concern is that red wave a 'can be' counted as a five-wave expanding diagonal in cash. A third concern is that usually, not always, the first down leg of a contracting triangle is the most violent. This one is very slow and halting.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Do you think your long term gold chart 4th wave is in motion now?
ReplyDeleteOh, yes. I believe I said so when price again crossed under 2,760. If it's prior to a last wave, one must watch out for triangle or diagonal patterns also, so could get more ugly. TJ.
Delete..and see below @ 12:49 PM. TJ.
DeleteThank you 👍
DeleteLooks like we go down. At least the small caps look like a larger B wave may be complete.
ReplyDeleteYes, an upward pointing triangle was just invalidated in the futures. TJ.
DeleteReminder: according to the FXStreet calendar, chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 15:00 ET. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIf Powell is smart (and he is for sure) he would parachute out here before the heat is on for him to cut rates super aggressively. That surely is coming.
DeleteGOLD (GC) Futures - Weekly - as far as I can tell weekly Gold looks to be counting like this:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BzCvfDwa/
It would be great to see if the the AO/EWO - MACD can get down towards the zero line.
TJ
SPY 30-min: as far as I can tell, both the SPY and the ES have the required measurements for a contracting diagonal, downward, probably an (a) wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bJMAJMO4/
TJ
Diagonal converted to impulse, or possibly a-b-c. Hard to tell at this time. TJ.
ReplyDeletePattern wise, Qqq daily looks like a rising wedge with a false breakout to the upside. If it acts like a wedge breakdown, the chances of it coming down quickly to 450 area is now on the table.
ReplyDelete450 is slightly above the weekly BB on QQQ fwiw. Have a great weekend
Deletebreak of ES 5860 impacts my primary count which is we are in third wave of an extended fifth of a larger third
ReplyDeleteprimary white count will not go more than 50bps below today's low. 2 alternates in green.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/tgnksBjx/Screenshot-2024-11-15-150507.png
now at 5900 +10 is 5910 leading diagonal off the low should see that by open on sunday night for primary count
Deletemulti week island reversa up followed by an island reveral down. pure genius.
ReplyDeleteAcknowledging great assessment that considered risks skewed to near term downside. Thx
ReplyDeleteI am working on my tools / skills even though I do not post here very often. Thx TJ
DeleteWelcome pbeck. TJ.
DeleteTj whenever u have time can you look at tsla. Just a quick glance. I cant tell if after the last high of 400ish it has been making a triangle and now a breakout or it has made.w then.triangle x and now y breakout. Thanks in advanve. Good chart to learn
ReplyDeleteImpossible to say as there is a 78.6% retrace, and the upward retrace may or may not be over. EW can not completely reduce the risk in analyzing or trading a chart - particularly in potential 4th waves. It could form a triangle or a flat if it's a fourth wave. Or there could be a top in place. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.