The ES Daily futures chart is below. If there was an alternating wave iv, that was a Flat sideways compared to a sharp second wave, ii, then it is possible that a high might form as an overlapping diagonal, sketched in below. Such a diagonal would invalidate above 6,160 however.
We did sketch out a diagonal yesterday on the ES 15-min chart. It currently looks like that diagonal is leading or is still in progress (as more contracting waves, with the first diagonal as an 'a' wave of a first wave). But the count remains murky and compressed. If a diagonal is forming on the daily chart, then at least wave ③ should make a new higher high over wave ①. Wave ① has already made a higher high above wave iii to express its character as a motive wave.
Have a great start to the evening and to the weekend.
TraderJoe
there are counts that have us still in the longer monthly 3rd wave, but are 1)void of invalidation levels, and 2) in a lower degree 3 not 5. likewise your iv above could be ii. im intedrested in how you decide to "look" for ending pattern while in a larger third wave. this is not critique or second guessing your work. i think its a very interesting topic.
ReplyDeleteA) sentiment, B) synchronous market indexes, C) divergences - macd, rsi. And remember I am looking for wave v of (v) of C of (3). TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteSpx
Oct 2022 low 3500 year low
Oct-Nov 2023 low 4100 year low
Nov 2024 low 5700 but 2024 low April 5000.
I don't understand the point of this. TJ.
DeleteMay be implying year's low yet to come, below 5K. Not sure of the reasoning though....😊
ReplyDeleteHi TJ,
ReplyDeleteI'm still reading you almost every day, keep up the good work! I was trying to think on my own and I thought that wave 5 of 3 was done and we may have started wave 4 down (currently in wave B up) but your scenario above has better measurements and includes the usual Santa Claus rally. I'm a slow learner despite my regular reading!
Dow (YM) futures 4-Hr: already have the new all-time-high; waiting on ES/NQ.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g1NhjusC/
TJ
Transportation ETF (IYT) has already notched a new ATH, index not yet. Is the ETF pointing to a DOW theory bull market confirmation, index lag notwithstanding...?! 😊
ReplyDelete..and SPY seems to have the new high, but not ES (yet). 'Might' be a flat wave. TJ.
DeleteES futures - close to open gap filled. Chart behind, will post when it catches up. TJ.
ReplyDeleteChart update:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/M1nSmwSj/
TJ
ES 30-min: now has three-consecutive closes below the lower band, dropping the odds of the next close below the band to 2 - 4%. TJ.
DeleteAfter three consecutive closes below the lower band, and a tag of the 100 MA, the next bar closed back inside the band resetting the number of consecutive closes. Also, at this time, there is upward overlap on the 10:30 am bar, which is a "warning".
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t1Iey8Yq/
TJ
..the overlap is also at the daily R1 resistance pivot. TJ.
Deletehere are the two levels of overlap. L#1 warning has already been triggered.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eJ47xHTy/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ