The ES Monthly Chart is below. We have been counting this wave up as Intermediate (3), and it remains so. But, interested Elliott analysts need to ask the question, "what IF this wave exceeds equality with wave Intermediate (1), up? We'll, if this wave up is a Cycle V wave, we have been expecting a diagonal, up. That could still happen as a contracting diagonal if wave (3) remains less than wave (1).
Usually, in contracting diagonals, the third wave doesn't much exceed 78 - 80% of the prior first wave. But what if it does exceed equality? Then, we would simply propose that the count - while remaining the same - would simply trace out the expanding diagonal option below.
There are a couple of clues already. The first clue is that this wave (3) is longer in time than the prior wave (1). We noted this earlier in posts and comments. This fits with the expanding nature of an expanding diagonal. Second, the Elliott Wave Oscillator has lost the contracting divergence on the two-weekly timeframe. We noted this in comments.
But first, to switch to the red count, we would need to see that longer wave up. It hasn't happened yet, and like today, the market has really been playing chicken with us collapsing when it might impulse for this count.
Still, the grinding, overlapping nature of the counts suggest that a diagonal of some type is in progress. So, we'll stay with a diagonal count unless/until price dictates otherwise.
The contracting diagonal is actually the more conservative count in the short run, as it requires a much shorter wave (4) overlap. But we will still just simply follow the rules and do as measurements require. If the count requires a more dramatic dip - then so be it!
Have an excellent start to the evening, and to the holiday week if you are starting it already.
TraderJoe
yes a lot to consider... you must believe wave 1 and 3 count as ABC and therefore we are in a diagonal. this above count calls for a 30% plus loss followed by a 150% plus gain ( as waves 4 and 5 of a fifth wave from 2008). The fourth wave above would have to be >25% loss, but not more than prior fourth wave of 35% loss by wave degree? The fifth wave would likely take us to June 2028 Its hard to think this has higher proabaility than perhaps this wave extending as wave 3 of impulse. or alternatively you can already count a completed expanding diagonal with abc as waves for wave 5
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ignore the green as expanding diagonal, no overlap, but its an impulse i belive
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