Or Strike the Up Band. The daily ES futures contract traveled to the upper daily Bollinger Band today on a lot of machine-driven trading. Then, as if by magic some of the Smart Money appeared to be taking some profits at that level. On the ES 4-hour intraday chart, here are the measurements we have to offer.
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| ES Futures - 4 Hr - Channel |
We made three-waves down to a likely a-3 wave. That seems proved by the new highs. If we are making a b-3 wave up, it is currently 123.6% x a-3, with a possible further target of 138.2% of same. This currently fits the parameters of a b-3 wave very well, including the potential channel that "B" waves often travel in.
After today's high which occurred in a wedge that we called to the bar, there was some downside movement but it is still unconvincing. Yet, striking that band urges for calm, patience and flexibility.
The alternate at this point is a contracting diagonal but it doesn't fit well here just yet.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
This is what you have been fighting in 2023:
ReplyDeleteSnapshot: The Nasdaq 100 (NDX), the go-to index for prominent growth-oriented stocks [ trscked by QQQ ], has surged nearly 40% YTD, compared to the 15% gain of the S&P 500. The power behind the bull market that resumed in March is being led by the Magnificent Seven and their stellar performance in 2023: Alphabet (GOOGL) +31%, Microsoft (MSFT) +39%, Amazon (AMZN) +48%, Apple (AAPL) +51%, Meta (META) +136%, Tesla (TSLA) +149% and Nvidia (NVDA) +195%. Putting things in perspective, without the big gains of the gunslinging gang, the S&P 500 ** would be slightly underwater ** for the year.
lol .. no; this is what I've been fighting all year. It is virtually impossible to count waves that don't move.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/tqoE9bVI/
TJ
LOL .. That was (late) lunch time. From 2:00 to 4:00 PM, you got some motion with a possible overthrow outside your expanding diagonal.
Deletetrue dat!
DeleteThanks Tj.
ReplyDeleteCrossing what level you will rethink to change your longterm count for a topping of B on SPX. 4600?
ES 2-min (very short term) RTH only. Either you love this stuff or it's a pain.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jnbCYOAv/
TJ
ES 2-min: ES now has the marginal new high which is good for -d of an expanding triangle or part of wave ⑤. TJ.
DeleteES 2-min: here is the expanding triangle option; only depends which comes first: the new low or the new high.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/du4pvnsO/
TJ
P.S. much cleaner higher high for -d in the MES (rather than ES).
DeleteSPY 5-min: switching to SPY 5-min for better real-time; higher high can currently be counted like this. 'Feels' like a triangle (could still be) but might better be a diagonal fifth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aetcKgR5/
TJ
In that count, then ⑤ = ①. TJ
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ReplyDeleteplease take some time to learn the principles I show (on ES and NQ) and do your own work there. I am not here just to do everyone's favorite chart. I have shown many NQ charts earlier in the weeks, months. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: so far a divergent high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/POdP155S/
TJ
SPY 5-min: the one remaining legal pattern I see is the dreaded expanding ending diagonal. If so, it must break the start of the pattern faster than the pattern took to form.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ErqUBPFR/
TJ
SPY 5-min: if it's -v then it's 1,618 x -iii and longer in time too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Rto6QlOS/
No guarantees, just higher probability.
TJ
SPY 5-min: just another confluence: now ⑤ = 0.618 x net [① to ③]. This is the second most likely length for ⑤.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/F1RwAz81/
TJ
Series gaps appear at the start, OR the end, of bull runs.
Delete..back inside the wedge on some red volume. Watch the high in cash.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DI4g4AUg/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ