Prices as measured by the SPY cash 30-min chart again gapped slightly lower today, and then made a new daily low below the level of 26 April, as per the chart below.
After the lower low, prices rebounded a bit but did not close the opening gap before putting on a drift sideways for the last couple of hours of the cash session. This may have been because daily ES futures prices were trading directly on the lower daily Bollinger Band with the daily Slow Stochastic in over-sold territory.
Prices are still below the EMA-34 on this time scale, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) is still below the zero line. Wave counting is still a bit of a mess, but the down waves could fit with either a fourth wave today or a nested (i), (ii), i, ii inside a third wave structure, including a larger 'C' wave lower.
The wave structure can still have some surprises as a number of tech earnings including AAPL are out after the close, and monthly Payroll Employment Report is tomorrow morning. Calm and flexibility are still required.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES has a fairly decent completed Contracting Diagonal on the 30 minute with a back test. Did not have the overthrow so not that strong. I think it is a of e in a barrier triangle.
ReplyDeleteThanks tj. I think the blog is read by bots. Amazing analysis day by day.
ReplyDeleteES 1-Hr: here is a plausible count based on the EWO, Fibonacci ratios, and the current potential market structure of a 'five-up' if a new high is made today. The count also appears below the EWO, using it as the counting tool.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BYkfJgMd/
The alternation is a "short two" and a "long four". Note that the Ⓑ wave at the bottom is inside of 1.382, and if this count is not the correct one, then the upward Fibonacci ratios really get out of hand for this wave (too non-proportional).
TJ
ES 1 Hr: there is one higher high into the 18-day SMA. Based on the futures, there could be more; even a retreat into Mon/Tues and a higher high then.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/jZcRP2Gt/
Let's see how it goes.
TJ
ES 10-Min: try not to get too antsy because on this time scale with 150 candles on the chart, we could still be in iii of Ⓒ, and there could be a drop for iv and v.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Y8Oi9rDL/
There is a 1.618 wave supporting same.
TJ
ES 15-min: here is the chart at the end of the day. Looks like price will sit on the 18-day SMA.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mWpM4hnP/
If the fourth and fifth waves don't play out, then we might have just a/b/c up as also shown.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ