Wednesday, May 17, 2023

Thrust from Triangle and Gap Fill

Today was likely a thrust from a slightly longer-term triangle and then a gap-fill on the SPY 2-Hr cash chart, below. The wave-counting-stop from the ES 4-Hr chart was hit today and exceeded. And the prior gap was filled.


There is now likely a 5-3-5 under construction at minimum. It could turn out to be more. The day closed with price over the 18-day SMA, so the bias has turned up. The prior high on this chart, and the upper daily Bollinger Band have thus become local targets unless the up move fails. There is nothing (overlaps, diagonals, etc.) that says the up move is necessarily over. 

However, the algos are making a real mess of the wave structure. For example, in the above chart the triangle's proportions are 90 - 98% which is exceptionally odd but legal. And it is unclear if today's gap was actually inside of the triangle or not. There is a way to see that way from a degree-labeling point of view.

A bit more wave structure is needed to better define the longer-term daily count. The downward pointing larger daily triangle and the upward pointing contracting diagonal are still both on the table. At some point one of these options will invalidate. It just hasn't as of today's close. So calm, pateience and flexibility are still needed until there is better clarity.

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe


19 comments:

  1. Thanks TJ.

    I am not able to see "There is a way to see that way from a degree-labeling point of view." Nor able to mark a triangle. Can you explian a bit.

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    1. It's too complicated for a note, but basically you can move the Ⓔ in the above diagram over one bar to the right in a slight failure. The up wave is so long in price without retrace that the sub-waves don't make sense in terms of being of smaller degree extensions. So, it likely means today's up wave is related to the large up wave 'before' the triangle. TJ.

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  2. Replies
    1. I covered the NQ 100 futures in this post of 28 April.

      https://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/04/only-in-nq-proximity-to-1618.html

      Since then the update is that the NQ has reached the 1.618 level, and is now trading near the upper Bollinger Band which is a place where (according to Ira Epstein's Trading Guidelines) 'the Smart Money' often takes some profits off the table. (Not trading or investment advice - just a recap of what Ira teaches).

      TJ

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  3. Isn't it always sure from last 100 years that the US will not default then why such a hype? To propell the markets up?

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  4. Replies
    1. I am thinking on the daily barrier triangle idea we need one more wave down for the e but I don't know how many times the market can knock on that horizontal resistance and the door not be opened.

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  5. TJ, Can an e wave of a triangle be a triangle itself?

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    Replies
    1. I found it and yes it can, bottom of page 49.

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  6. Here are those two options.

    https://imgur.com/tHS8up3

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  7. Weekly /ES just below the 100ma

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  8. Regarding the daily triangle option (http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-daily-triangle-option.html), the B wave undercut the (A)/(1) by approx. 137. Subtracting 137 from the A wave high of 4327.50 leaves 4190.50 for a possible C wave high if the triangle is playing out.

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  9. ES 30-min: wave-counting screen. The 30-min chart does have downward overlap. Watch the slow-stochastic and the fractals.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/dtRUaIB2/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. ES 30-min: lower low than noon low. Structure is funky. Might be building a diagonal. More later... TJ.

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  10. ES 30-min: the break of the slow stochastic below the 79 level did correctly indicate a return to the 18-per SMA. See chart update below (chart is behind the usual 10min).

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/TMLTh2LN/

    I should mention this version of the intraday wave-counting-screen is RTH hours only. I am experimenting to see if increased volume of the RTH session makes the chart even more reliable.

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the RTH view. It aligns better with SPY.

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  11. I think e was a triangle. What a curve ball.

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  12. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

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