The cash gap on the S&P500 Index was closed today. The cash gap on the SPY ETF was not. So, is the gap closed or not? It's really not a question. The gap could close or not. From a wave-counting-standpoint the SPY wedge did make a higher high today, and then it got very overlapping after mid-day. Here is the hourly chart of the SPY.
This is the same wedge we showed as possible in the ES, yesterday. This chart is just crisper in its look. It is possible a top occurred today. But the overlaps toward the end of the day could as well be a triangle with a further wave up, and possibly the last wave, ahead.
Note the overlap warning has been triggered and a fifth wave ((5)) would need to remain shorter than wave ((3)). Price is up against the daily Bollinger Band, and that is another concern for significant further up movement.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
I am wondering if one of these possible triangles makes any sense in gold.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/dxRYkZ5 barrier
https://imgur.com/k3rbFdo running
Here is something else to look at in GOLD. Keep in mind the monthly.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2GLGn3lD/
TJ
Followed you TJ for a long time and always like how you help followers in extracting the various degrees and timing breakdowns.
ReplyDeleteAfter seeing your comment and chart of monthly gold I found it was interesting to go back and look at the sideways correction from July 2016 through August 2018 (25 months) which seems to have lined up again in the sideways correction from August 2020 through September 2022 (25 months).
I can understand the time lengths being similar but not sure about what the size of the corrections mean although their "C" wave completions (if you can call them that) definitely seemed to have alternated with one higher than the other.
Once again really appreciate the effort you put into your work
Gold ????
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/ErEcCr8
e missed coming into wave it was correcting by less than on full tick.
Even had written in my book of F&*K ups, "be careful diagonals can be running triangles with long b waves".
DeleteI don't think so. It is a 'rule' that the e wave just has to overlap. Otherwise, one can count any-ole-way-they-wish. Here is another version of A,B,C up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/glBC42WG/
This one breaks no rules, has some advantages in terms of degree labeling and is currently at C = 0.618 x A, with the possibility of higher still. The overlapping diagonal moves to the end of the sequence as an expanding wave, instead of the contracting one.
There is also an expanding diagonal for v of ((v)) of A, which keeps the B wave as the longest correction in time.
TJ
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dprH3Qbq/
ReplyDeleteThanks TJ for all your efforts so informative always learning.
VIX Weekly at multi month low. Will it test green uptrend line soon? Notice it can test green uptrend line for a couple weeks before an extended bounce. I am bearish but this tells me to be patient something big could be coming but it could need time.
SPY 5-min: the cash count yesterday and today 'seems to be' a diagonal down in good form, and a double-zigzag up to a 'deep retrace' beyond 78.6% including a gap-fill.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XAR45aio/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ