The daily chart of the ES futures is below. It's hard to be immune from the rather constant chop in both directions, up and down, in the wave count. For perspective, take a step back and recognize that the ES futures have not yet made a 50 nor a 62% retrace on the down wave. They could.
We have only counted two zigzags in the upward correction, so far. We also posted a way for the second zigzag to move a bit higher if this morning's low is labeled as a 'b' wave. That could mean an additional 'c' wave up could follow.
But price has indeed bounced up off the 18-day and 100-day SMA's. Those need to be respected until they should again be crossed below. But the daily Bollinger Bands are beginning to narrow. And sideways, choppy action might be expected until an eventual breakout or breakdown. Further the daily slow stochastic is over-bought without being embedded. So, the way Ira teaches it, the "Smart Money" may look to come out of positions at the upper daily band.
One should not be surprised if prices want to bang around inside narrow bands for a while. If there is to be a decent trend, it often starts out from narrow bands. Price may just be waiting for the economic reports to provide cover for a decent move.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks TJ,
ReplyDeleteFrom last 2 months inflation data has zoomed up the markets as the result of higher interest rate is setting in. January 12th 8:30 the trend maycontinue if inflation is lower, which it wil.
Inflation level is definitely a part of the picture. But so are company earnings reports which are expected to be weaker this quarter. They begin in earnest on 15 Jan. TJ.
DeleteGold (GC) Futures - here is a potential ending sequence in the 2-Hr time frame that could agree with the completion of the Gold diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9uE0vlCw/
There is a beautiful little hourly triangle at the top, and it has since had it's ((e)) wave exceeded lower. Watch to see if a retrace does not go over the high.
TJ
GDX and GDXJ also sold off this morning. Their rebounds are very weak.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/wxHbHvrT
TJ the long term chart for SPX is currently bearish imo but it feels very bullish lately (stocks up, inflation coming down, etc..). is there an alternative bullish chart with SPX bottoming at ~3500.
ReplyDeleteI don't go on 'feels'; only on unambiguous fractal breaks. For example, the most recent two green fractals were broken upwards. So, price is 'currently' moving up. Gap fill is 'possible' (red circle), not certain. Price is currently at the prior overhead resistance and is stalling there, temporarily. To turn the entire chart more bullish, then the up (green) fractal at the daily high has to be exceeded higher. To turn the chart more negative, the down (red) fractals at the low have to be exceeded lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8IKvwjge/
Fractals are where the market makes decisions. It doesn't need mine.
TJ
GC Gold Futures - 2 Hr - the triangle was entirely exceeded lower. Price is rebounding now. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY 2-min: some interesting features at today's high.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DSNn96VY/
TJ
SPY 2-min: result of the triangle is a higher high, validating the triangle (alt: running fourth wave).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IIAGNYsY/
TJ
CPI tomorrow morning probably provides the move. Good luck to all today.
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ