Here is the ES Daily Chart in wave format. The waves from Minor 3 have been labeled in detail. Most recently the market has broken the dotted purple uptrend line with an impulsive wave lower. Since then the market has lurched and hacked higher in another choppy channel.
The blue (i) (ii) ? wave labels on the right are tentative until there is a lower low. The alternate is that a slightly higher high minute ((b)) wave might be made, but that alternate is not activated yet, and is not a factor until or unless there is a higher high, first.
Have an excellent start to your evening.
TraderJoe
Thanks Tj. Very difficult markets. 18 sma is providing good support.
ReplyDeletethanks TJ. it's definitely been choppy the last 4 weeks. From ES 4170 to 3788 - it looks like 5 waves to me and implusive. since then choppy. Do you see an alternative bullish count from October lows? I don't but i'm not EW expert. It looks corrective to me. However, many EW are counting ES 3500 to 4100 as Wave 1. 4100 to 3791 as wave 2. Thus we are now in Wave 3. the two weeks in January bouncing between 3800 to 3900 - i don't see how any of that can be implusive. thank you for your time!!
ReplyDeleteThe four-week chop-fest is still smaller in price & time than the minute ((b)) wave at the high. Thus, by the principles of degree labeling a smaller wave (as it currently is) should be designated as such. Minuet (ii) is smaller degree than minute ((b)). The only way for me to look for an alternate is to actually see a 'larger' wave. Others might be using some other technique, or plain 'hopium' to get that we are in new third wave. However, what I have presented is transparent, and fits with the definitions. That said, things can change in markets. They just don't seem to have quite yet.
DeleteTJ
thank you. my one concern if this is wave i / ii is time. wave i took one week. wave ii is taking 5 weeks.
DeleteWhat happen to your gold count?
ReplyDeleteSee yesterday's comment at 2:56 pm. It's a 4-hr chart update. TJ.
DeleteWith Teslas weightage and result after hours why es has not moved up. Am i missing something.
Deletehi ET, nice work!
ReplyDeleteCan you provide an outlook for Swiss Market Index starting from the year 2000 (roughly) ... Its easy to provide doomsday EW counts for it but what I'd like to hear is if there's good alternatives.
Thx. The SMI lines up peak-for-peak and trough-for-trough with the SPX by year using a 3-month log chart. So, the counts should be the same.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BLFgM4wc/
TJ
Nice tag and fade of that possible wedge line. 30 Minute chart SPY
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GVZFV8L5/
TJ any chance SPX 4,812 to 3,490 was Wave A or 1. Thus, we are now in a big B or 2 wave up to 4,155 - 4,300 (50% - 61% retrace). From 4812 to 3490 there is a overlap of wave 1 & 4 so maybe it doesn't qualify. I just wanted to explore if this was possible count ??
ReplyDeleteSee the paragraph after the chart in the post above, and my comment at 10:20 pm in response to the same basic a
Delete'alternate' question. TJ.
feels eerily similar to the period right before the covid crash.
ReplyDeleteapproaching the 78.6 retracement of proposed (i)
ReplyDeleteExceeded now I believe. The character of this market has changed over these last few weeks.
DeleteBullish divergence on the Vix is trying everyone to watch out. The Russia news is serious but the market isn't taking it seriously. Very similar to January 2020
DeleteAndrew - not based on what I'm looking at. https://www.tradingview.com/x/HfQWxHih/
DeleteTj.Missing a new post started. Now your blog is addictive. Lot to learn everytime. Thanks
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: this is 'potential' not 'actual', yet.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/n2tur2ty/
TJ
SPY 30-min: "spinning top" candle followed by "confirming lower-close" candle and back to vicinity of prior fourth wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/GaoylChA/
TJ
another bear fake out
DeleteThe printing press has turned up. Fun to watch the cage match.
ReplyDeleteSPY 30-min: another way to view a potential E-D. And there may be a small 5-min triangle in this leg too (verified acceptable on a 5-min chart).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UP3O86pi/
TJ
Caution! Don't let this down leg which has broken the trend line again get longer than the prior wave ((4)) otherwise it might indicate a turn of degree.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uTTg1Pta/
TJ
That level would be 4,078 futures. And in SPY 405.10 by measurement. TJ.
DeleteNice rug pull at the end. And everything was going so well!
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ