In our previous comments, we noted that the up wave to wave (ii) in September was greater than 62%. Therefore, it could support a 1.618 wave downward. So far, we note that wave (iii) is - in fact - longer than wave (i). This likely makes wave (iii) the extended wave in the sequence. Here is a chart.
.png) |
| ES Futures - 5 Hr - Two Channels |
There are two channels of note. Price is currently residing in the steeper acceleration channel. Yet, be careful as within wave (iii), wave ii is much less than 62%. Therefore, wave i might be the extended wave within that sequence.
The Elliott Wave Oscillator on this 5 Hr time frame is on a low. If a series of 4's and 5's are made things could get bumpy along the lower daily Bollinger Band.
Have an excellent start to the week.
TraderJoe
What do you mean by "a series of 4's and 5's" ?
ReplyDeleteBlue iv, and blue v, and blue (iv) and blue (v) of minute ((a)).
DeleteTJ
SPX (60m)(10x2) - status update
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/o4h7snzupn2k4lz/spx10x2.PNG/file
Here is an excerpt from your comment of September 20, 2022 at 6:15 PM
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/r04bw3j3cap81vf/spx20x1_9-20.PNG/file
Do you yet see how ridiculous the blue target of 4,720 to 4,780 looks because it is just so plain out of context? It makes no sense to post higher targets when the market is making daily lower lows.
I left the post on the site specifically to illustrate this point.
TJ
SPY 15-min: using cash, the lower low 'likely' means we are into the blue vth wave of blue (iii).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8mQIMVwg/
It can go lower but should likely not exceed the length of wave iii, since iii is shorter in price than i.
TJ
DXY Point of Recognition?
ReplyDeleteI thought that was when 100 was held
DeleteSPY 15-min: overlap warning now moves 'up' to the prior wave (i), low, as below.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ChQGGyok/
TJ
Thanks TJ,
DeleteWhat do you think of overall economy from your vast experience. They cannot do more printing due to inflation. So is any other tool left ?
I'm not TJ but for a USA & Global macro perspective, daily commentary at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-i0KKiuAsE is helpful for me.
Delete@manu .. tool for what? Goosing the markets again? In my experience although there 'is' inflation, it is not the major problem. The problem is the level of debt-to-GDP. Everyone knows it, but no one 'publicly' admits it. The level of debts restricts the options open to governments. Reduced government spending hasn't really been tried yet (i.e. reduction in defense programs, foreign aid programs, bureaucratic gov't programs, etc.), but perhaps it is time to, and then individual income taxes on the middle class and lower could be greatly reduced.
DeleteTJ
This is the road
Deletehttps://www.google.com/search?q=yardeni+research+sp+500+to+fed+balance+sheet&sxsrf=ALeKk014txHJ6sifASIQE6rnNA0NUm6Kpg%3A1624544401659&source=hp&ei=kZTUYMm6JYe4tAaVxJXwDQ&oq=ya&gs_lcp=ChFtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1ocBABGAAyBAgjECcyBAgjECcyBAgjECcyCAgAELEDEIMBMggIABCxAxCDATIICAAQsQMQgwEyCAguELEDEIMBMggIABCxAxCDAToHCCMQ6gIQJzoNCC4QxwEQrwEQ6gIQJ1CiKVihLGDROWgBcAB4AIABrQGIAcoCkgEDMC4ymAEAoAEBsAEP&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-hp
**first link figure 6**
until Thelma and Louise ending.
SPX (25x1)dly - A slightly longer term view
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/gfk52u9yk8yvczc/spx25x1_9-26.PNG/file
SPY 15-min: just citing the red option that iv could be at this morning's high. Then a lower low would still be v of blue (iii). Things are getting good & messy.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/O8MSUQCp/
TJ
Check my thinking: Wave (iii) is shorter than (i) but it's not allowed to be the shortest wave so this wave (v) MUST be shorter than wave (iii). That is approx. 356.20 on SPY. Otherwise, something else is going on.
DeleteNo! Pls look again at the above chart, and the title of this post: blue (iii) is already 'longer' than blue (i). What is going on with you? TJ.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteI was referring to the lower degree count but it's not longer relevant. Apologies for the confusion, balancing day job today and a bit distracted.
DeleteThx again
SPY daily - has clicked below the June low. ES (on some roll-over contracts) has too.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Hvbe2Fe7/
TJ
https://schrts.co/tPRZecYr
ReplyDeleteVIX - a lot of resistance from 35-41
Weekly bb and 200ma sitting at around 3590 on spx cash. They keep trying to avoid it so far, I'd like to see it tested and see the 3600 break for a nice panic drop to buy.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' above 3,687 to indicate that the larger fourth wave (iv) might have started, and (iii) is at today's early-afternoon low. If the stop is not hit, and prices make a new low first, then (iii) is likely continuing.
ReplyDeleteTJ
A similar level on SPY would be over 365.88; TJ.
DeleteSome interesting NYSE statistics at this time: only marginally more declines over advances as follows: adv - 1,620 dec - 1,639; but look at the new-high new-low: NH - 14, NL - 859. That probably reflects breaking the June low this morning. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY cash market refused to make a decision today regarding the end of (iii) and the beginning of (iv). Nothing rules out lower prices in (iii). The overnight will have some say in the matter. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSo, these are the SPY options at the moment (30-min).
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2SzzBzTQ/
TJ
am i right to assume that entire down move from ATH can be complete ? you have counted another completed 3 down???? Historically, this is the point where this blog has struggled to identify major turn. whats different this time? curious
ReplyDelete'You' can 'assume' anything you like. 'You' seem out of control tonight. Anyone can cast accusations. TJ.
Deletemarc I think what is being counted is the 5th wave of a potential expanding diagonal with A wave underway. I have not seen that coun anywhere else and imo opinion has most accurately predicted price action so far. It also solves a huge promlem I have had with the entire wave down: diagonals are the the other motive wave structures that are NOT impulsive.
DeleteES (dly) - Effort, no result?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/n8pma5ygom4znyw/effort_no_result.PNG/file
Yes. The attempts to keep prices aloft have been historic...remarkable how few see what is happening to global equities...
DeleteES 15-min after the overnight lower lows there is a possibility of a diagonal upward and it might be of the 5-3-5-3-5 type which could start a larger fourth wave or more upward. Watch the overnight low to see if it holds.
ReplyDeleteTJ
"larger 4th wave or more", larger than what ? What does " or more" mean?
DeleteSee explanation below - which is the same as the main post above - and lose the attitude with me. TJ.
Deleteno attitude, pitfall of one way communication, I'll pay better attention
DeleteES 8-hour with about 92 candles wave (iii) is currently 1.272; it would not be an unreasonable expectation to get a 1.618 for wave (iii). The best alternate is that wave (iv), upward, has already started and could be up to the parallel, i.e. 38 - 50% x wave (iii). Chart update below, but it is the same form as the main chart above in the post.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Tla3ge5E/
TJ
Interesting that 3 has not (yet) broken the channel.
DeleteIs the larger channel shown an acceleration channel?
DeleteThe larger channel shown is the 'likely' impulse channel for the entire ((a)) wave. TJ.
DeleteThank TJ,
Delete"it would not be an unreasonable expectation"- It is not and we still in wave(iii) ?
I believe there is an expanding diagonal complete at overnight lows starting at sep 16 high
ReplyDeleteI looked at that one, but the fourth wave could be a 'flat', so it's a good option only if that is not a fact. TJ.
DeleteDXY (30m) - DXY downer (gold liked it).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/829jfueo79l7m7b/DXY_downer.PNG/file
Nice reversal on AAPL but couldn't get over that 150 resistance. Es is still embedded bearish, I think it's a trap - c/4
ReplyDeleteES - double close key reversal day.
ReplyDeleteNote: Didnt quite close above yesterday's high.
DeletePotential triangle action for a few days?
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ