Thursday, September 29, 2022

Just One Way - Could Be Others

There is now at least one good way to count the minute ((a)) wave down within the Expanding Diagonal. That count is shown as the blue/black count in the SPY 30-min chart below.


Because the ES futures have not made a new daily low, yet, wave blue (v) could have more to travel lower. Also, it is possible to get even a larger fourth wave, red (iv), with a further fifth wave down to follow as red (v).

There is a great deal of uncertainty near the lows - just as there always is near highs: It is The Fourth Wave Conundrum - which is present at every degree of trend. I am presenting the first time I could legitimately count five waves down, and there could legitimately be others within reason. So, I do not wish to rush the count, but it is also necessary to count what one sees.

Have a good rest of the day.

TraderJoe

Posted by at

15 comments:

  1. manuSeptember 29, 2022 at 11:14 AM

    Thanks TJ,

    "Because the ES futures have not made a new daily low, yet" I think it did.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 29, 2022 at 1:41 PM

      No. A link to the chart is below. Futures made a lower low, yesterday, not today, according to these quotes.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/WM488nkq/

      Not sure what you are referring to.
      TJ

      Delete
    2. manuSeptember 29, 2022 at 2:33 PM

      I think it did now.

      Delete
    3. Elliott_TraderSeptember 29, 2022 at 3:16 PM

      Stop it. No it has not. It needs to get below 3,613.00 and low today is 3,622.00. I don't know what you are doing or why you have this confusion. TJ.

      Delete
    4. manuSeptember 29, 2022 at 4:52 PM

      @ Investing.com future was printing cash charts. Sorry for the confusion.

      Delete
    5. Elliott_TraderSeptember 29, 2022 at 5:16 PM

      Like I have said before, 'no one' should be making 'any' decisions - no matter how small - using that site. Period. TJ.

      Delete
    6. manuSeptember 30, 2022 at 3:33 PM

      3613.50 till now.

      Delete
  2. wizard29September 29, 2022 at 9:41 PM

    So maybe we are into wave iv which sets up an OB condition and a wave v decline into Q3 earnings season, which should be fairly ugly.

    Is it your opinion that the bear market ends with wave v? Or is this sequence from Aug 16th -- i, ii, ..., v -- just the first sub-wave of the bear market's 'C' wave?

    Since the bear's 'A' wave ran 6 - 8 months, 2 months seems a bit short for the 'C' wave. However, in 2008-09, the 'C' wave was much shorter than the 'A' wave, so that's not unprecedented.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 29, 2022 at 9:56 PM

      My overall count is here. The count is called an expanding diagonal. The current (v) waves are likely to the next ((a)) of 5.

      http://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/08/

      TJ

      Delete
  3. TimHSeptember 30, 2022 at 9:29 AM

    With core PCE jumping up to 4.9% y/y, another .75 hike should be coming at next fed meeting.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Kevin KSeptember 30, 2022 at 1:15 PM

    Thanks for the updateTJ, you're very adept at finding the diagonal counts.

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    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2022 at 1:43 PM

      welcome. I try to find the impulses & triangles first, but when they don't appear ;)

      TJ

      Delete
  5. RobertoSeptember 30, 2022 at 3:59 PM

    looking forward to your ideas on this. Cycle guys we're calling for a bounce this week "or else" well, here we are - baby and bathwater out the window....

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  6. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2022 at 4:00 PM

    ES .. new daily low. This new low wipes out the outside day, up, because it occurred within two trading days, and may reflect a trap for the bulls.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/DWro3era/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  7. Elliott_TraderSeptember 30, 2022 at 4:33 PM

    A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete

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