Updating the ES 2-Hr wave chart in yesterday's post, wave iv occurred on schedule and as expected today. We just need to verify tomorrow that it has concluded downward. There are still ways it could extend lower, but as of the cash close it was doing OK.
If wave v upward behaves, then it might finish off the minute wave ((ii)), upward, tomorrow or the day after. If that occurs as expected that means the next wave down should be minute ((iii)) of Minor 3, and it might be a doozie (a highly technical term) with some of it occurring while people are trying to take summer vacations and time off.
Have an excellent start to the weekend.
TraderJoe
Also spelled /doo·zy | \ ˈdü-zē \
ReplyDeletevariants: or doozie or less commonly doozer \ ˈdü-zər: Something extraordinary or one of its kind. 😀
Thanks for applying the wave chart. I ran across a foundational question posed, answered by Neely regarding these (actually about EW itself as well) - thought it might be of interest. He's certainly not "on the fence" about it! :o) (underlining is mine).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ku2obver1uhjwd9/TheGospel.PNG/file
typo - in my comments, "whenever necessary" s/b "whenever possible".
DeleteFor Neely to still insist that you have to use cash data means that he's stuck in the stone age. Stock Index futures open at 6PM EST Sunday and stay open 23 hours per day until 5PM EST the following Friday. That's a total of 114 hours of market activity per week. In contrast, the cash market is open only 32.5 hours per week. Many years ago the overnight volume was too scarce to matter, so using the cash was still sufficient. However, that changed long ago. Futures are the tail that wags the dog, and if you ignore that price action, then you will always have major blind spots in your charts.
DeleteAlso, in regards to using cash, if you don't constantly adjust for dividends then your cash chart (as well as the SPY chart) will be totally inaccurate, yet Neely never mentions adjusting for dividends.
Plenty of potential catalysts for that next down wave as we have ISM on Friday at 10AM and the employment report next Friday July 8th. The regional Fed district reports have been pretty abysmal over the last 6-8 weeks, suggesting weakness will soon manifest in the national ISM report.
ReplyDeleteLets call this the doozie count. If I recall correctly, it's based on the June 18th post, URL below.
ReplyDeletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2022/06/as-long-as-were-in-channel.html
The wave 1 is just barely longer in size than wave (1) so doesn't that make this count invalid?
Thanks and have a good evening.
nope, no invalidation. Note: the DOW made an extra higher high, shorterning the length of wave 1. As far as I can tell, wave 1 in the S&P may have just ended on an earlier trough. TJ.
DeleteRTY (10x3) Observations/thoughts -
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If Im looking correctly, this chart is a 5m breakdown of your b of (b). This looks (to me) much more like an impulse wave than a corrective b wave. That sharp left turn looks like a 3rd wave. (imho)
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likely misapplication: where is the 'three of three' peak in the EWO? TJ
DeleteCrude (wkly) - reg div (hidden) to monitor
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ES futures have the new high for wave v; can extend a bit if it likes.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES futures 30-min: possible to see wave v? as a 'thrust' from a triangle; blue labels are tentative until there is 'post-pattern confirmation' of trading below wave blue iv?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wo3cwqc5/
TJ
..now trading below wave ((4)) of triangle; better, but not confirmation yet.
DeleteTJ
SPY opening gap now closed; bulls probably not too happy about that.
DeleteTJ
ES 30-min: wave iv exceeded lower in a faster wave. Post-pattern confirmation attained. TJ.
ReplyDelete..notice: it is a faster wave in futures, not in cash. TJ.
Deletechart update (chart is still behind ~10 mins)
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JJvawSA6/
TJ
..correction: IT IS also a faster wave in cash if you consider -all- of the extent of the Flat called for wave iv in cash. (Apologies: heat of the battle). TJ.
DeleteSPY 2-min: best idea at this time is any lower low on an EWO (AO) divergence is a fifth wave with an extended first wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/p5f13vW1/
TJ
..and there's a lower low; should not exceed length of 3. TJ.
Deletechart update:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/qrPzxs1N/
TJ
..time off now; back later. TJ.
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ReplyDeleteES (5x3) Current (had to delete prior to fix typos, lol. Hope I got all of them. :o)
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ES (2hr) Current -
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I'm just wondering if you see how useless the posting of the expanding bottom pattern - with its expectation of huge gains - was on a day like today? TJ.
DeleteI’m watching to see if we can hold 78% retrace.
Delete@TimH .. 78.6% retrace of what? Be specific and not cryptic. Thx.TJ
DeleteSPY 5-min: now with a lower low just made the 5-min count is into a larger five-wave move.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/aRfCXFRw/
TJ
..the logic is that ii is larger in price and time than the prior ((2)). TJ.
DeleteES (15m) - Reg div (hidden)
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(suggests part/all of B,X, or 2nd wave of some degree).
Deletenot likely. TJ.
Deleteimho we are in wave X of a double zigzag from the 3636 low. Above 4000 will be seen again before the low is broken.
ReplyDeleteGreat job TJ and Greywaver
not likely .. in a double-zigzag the (c) wave tends to end 'dead-on' the parallel. See Neely, if needed. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
SPY (2x3) end of day update -
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