The U.S. Federal Reserve increased interest rates by +0.75 basis points today. The market dropped, popped and then wheezed into the close. With about 106 candles now on the ES 2-Hr chart, a plausible count is shown below. An alternate count is still an expanding triangle for wave (iv). There were too many overlaps to count impulsively today, and the measurements were not correct for a diagonal (either expanding or contracting).
Still from a channeling perspective, and from a divergence perspective, a fourth wave (iv) is plausible at this location. All of this suggests monitoring the overnight gap tonight and not getting caught off guard.
(Note: the alternate of an expanding triangle would require a lower low - as a 'd' wave - and a whippy higher high that would be the 'e' wave of a wave (iv) expanding triangle. 'Possible', but not required.)
Any lower low could be a fifth wave.
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
ES (2hr) - For better or worse, horiz targets have me leaning to the upside for now.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5ltaqvmff9hjh9c/ES2hrtargets.PNG/file
You were correct. Low exceeded.
DeleteFrom today's high I can see 5 waves down on 5 minute chart with the first wave being extended. Guess we'll see tomorrow - thank you
ReplyDeleteBTC (hrly) update to prior inverted H&S (conjecture) post -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/d6ogmg8fi1mobsx/btchrlyupdate.PNG/file
SPX/CRB (mthly) - Worth a heads up (for me at least).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/du65l3yfozopftf/SPXCRBratioM.PNG/file
Joe thanks for clarification on abc123
ReplyDeleteRBOB - have reached initial primary target and MM.
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_2d19a2fc587b62b91801b084048dde1d.png
with the bull divergences at open I'm afraid this is going to be X (bear trap). Still have that gap on futures at 3875-3900. Options expiry tomorrow, should be wacky trading into friday.
ReplyDeleteET, you have stated in the past that futures gaps tend to close more quickly than non-futures. Presuming that we are looking to finish the fifth wave of wave one of wave three, would you expect wave two of three to close that futures gap?
DeleteThanks!
-Steven
@Roberto, no you are not counting properly. Notice how your a-b-c chart was not even correct. You suggested lower lows, but higher highs occurred on the FED meeting. This is not an 'x' wave, the large gap should be considered impulsive, lower. I'm not sure where you are getting your wave guidelines from, but you should revisit that topic. TJ.
Delete@StevenM .. yes, that futures gap could fill for minute ((ii)), if these five waves down are minute ((i)) of Minor 3. TJ.
DeleteAll of SPX gains in 2021 are gone.
ReplyDeleteES (5x3) Initial (full) target reached (3680)
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: a plausible way to count if the cash gap is an 'exhaustion' gap is as a wave (v). As in the post, above, the alternate is still in a whippy wave of an expanding triangle, and this is the 'd' leg of that triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PiCECcxQ/
TJ
p.s. I'm not crazy about the 'time signature' of a further expanding triangle. Usually, the legs expand in time, as well. TJ.
DeleteES (2hr/5x3) - current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/5hemsqfdwq5tf8g/bothviews.PNG/file
ES 30-min: here is the intraday wave-counting-screen with the fractals currently hidden to show the wave count. Please, please, please note that the intraday bias is down (i.e. below the intraday 18-per SMA) until it is not. And this currently agrees with the daily price bias - below the 18-day SMA until it is not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lIbNgG1c/
Price has currently touched the daily S2 pivot. Readers should reproduce this chart each & every day, with fractals, and apply Ira's guidelines to the intraday chart to help clarify the current situation. Notice that as of the time this chart was generated the intraday slow stochastic indicator was 'working on' embedding but needs a fully closed candle to embed.
TJ
ES (5x3) - 2 Big IFs - (low probability, high surprise factor)?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/tsu8u0erdlm3asd/ES5x3bb-overlay.png/file
SPY 5-min; it's worth watching this structure to see if it is a triangle with follow-through to the downside, or if it invalidates upward for a i, ii up. Hard to say at this point. Intraday bias still down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1rwe3Im2/
TJ
IXIC/SPX - appears to be basing
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Is ZOOM representative ?
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/2mve2m9jkxjhigw/Zoom.PNG/file
ES (5x3) 1st DTBO since selloff overnight/this morning
ReplyDeleteDBBO, prior peak was bull trap
DeleteHave reached continuation horiz target of 3655.
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ReplyDeleteNo, David. Please stop posting this non-sense. I have written before that it is totally incorrect. There is no Elliott Wave of this type. You are 'drawing a cartoon' and must stop. I will not allow counts that violate Elliott Wave 'rules' and guidelines to be posted. TJ.
DeleteSPY 5-min: three wave sequences but no longer a triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/l8viVW0b/
TJ
SPY 5-min: there is now a lower low. TJ.
DeleteDaily, Weekly, and Monthly SPX pushing on the lower BB
ReplyDeleteSPY @ 365 = number of days in a non-leap year. Lol.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/p13ZDNkf/
There is a way to see a wedge here.
TJ
ES - strictly from a pattern perspective -
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RBOB (0.025x3) Update -
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Today's SPX close per tradingview is 3666.76. 2009 intraday low was 666.79. Today's low was 3639.77. 2021 intraday low was 3662.71 made on 1/4/21 the first trading day of the year. Trend line from 2011 to 2018 highs has been breached. We gapped below the trend line from the 2007 to the 02/2020 highs.
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