The daily chart of the EUR/USD futures shows a possible/probable triangle developing in a fourth wave position. Such a triangle might precede a move down to parity with the U.S. Dollar.
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| EUR/USD Futures (6E) - Daily - Triangle? |
Both the first, i, and third, iii, waves show clean impulses. The impulse in wave iii has been labeled. Within potential wave iv the wave sequences already overlap, and they have a very 'three-wave' look to them.
Have an excellent rest of the holiday and start to the week. (P.S. This is the second post for the weekend and if you have not read the first, you may wish to).
TraderJoe
Et, on es chart circle ii getting very long, is the degree violation in play negating the nested down count?
ReplyDeleteLong in time
DeleteBoy, I sure don't know what you are thinking. Minor 2, the prior higher degree up wave, is 30 12-hr bars as per the chart, below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nMYVQO59/
Therefore, minute ((ii)), circle-ii is the next lower degree up wave. It 'may' be up to 29-30 12 hr bars in length. Right now, it is only 'four' 12-hr bars. Why are you thinking so differently?
TJ
Yes Sir...not even close! 😀
DeleteHad wrong chart I'm idiot sorry
DeleteETH (50x3) - Current [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_21f205be07c2f46a7d9299bca86d804c.png
ES (5x3) Potential "W" horiz count/target to note
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_619bf00789d4e4cdd482980092d6e2e7.png
Addendum -
Deletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/i1al2lad9fmkr1y/ESaddendum.PNG/file
SPX (wkly) - Bounce?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/6wbs7phl62f7kga/SPXlt.PNG/file
SPX (mthly) RSI vs AO
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/x5cw42ldsmh1xuq/RSIAO.PNG/file
AO (EWO) is telling you [B] wave imho ..TJ
DeleteHow would you know just by looking (without a predetermined idea of a count) that it wasnt implying a third?
DeleteThanks
Or a different way to ask, if you couldnt see price, but knew it was showing say 130 bars, could you decipher what wave it was implying?
DeleteIt's not a 'predetermined idea of a count'. It's several factors including:
Delete1. FTSE not even at new high but at 90%, as below
https://www.tradingview.com/x/o7upldoI/
2. Risk-on HYG not even at a new high but at 90%, as below.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/S1pHxFG5/
3. RSI not at new high, but diverged, as your chart shows.
I think the issue you are seeing is that the EWO (AO) is a 5-34 simple moving average difference, and the "5" is quite fast compared to the "14" of an RSI. So, I go based on the balance of the evidence. I could be wrong.
TJ
Here's another classic indicator that provides a divergence on the 2021 up wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/daFM6A8Y/
Interestingly, the slow stochastic is also based on 14 periods supporting what the RSI does. In one sense try to remember what famed trader Bill Willams wrote and taught: the market is a 'chaotic system'. Technical analysis does not work. If everyone found a technical indicator that worked all the time, the market would cease to be a market, precisely because everyone would be using it.
TJ
ETH - from a harmonics perspective -
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/79h3e9u5tb3kq11/abcdeth-overlay.png/file
ES (5x3) Late look -
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_c9e33855e18d37d7f9ac6fc6c7d19083.png
ES 30-min: one way to count from the low. Not sure iv? is done or v? has started.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/yhqzbWOl/
TJ
ES (2hr) current
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/34zfzlwe39lvqag/ES2hrrdh.PNG/file
Heres the view on 5x3 -
Deletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_a2ee5b572c16773579f303cec6d63ad9.png
You might note the standard model "2" fib (3798) is confluent with the 5x3 3800 targets. Just an observation
Deletepretty clear bear flag on oil, target 100
ReplyDeletewatching for a 5-3-5 corrective wave up on XLE 1hr chart, after that impulse wave down
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: let's see if we go over the high again for alternation.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ab4gl4Vz/
TJ
leading diagonal off the 6/13 low in $CRWD
ReplyDeleteSPY (15m) ICYMI
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/ohtoa15e697koua/SPY15m.PNG/file
ES (5x3) Update
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_bfbaaa06d0916c270de329bbbbd02d07.png
RBOB - [possible] bear flag (and MM)?
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_283ce752ae6fb69a6fce3bc6b80ef42b.png
that 5 minute pennant on spy seems too obvious, I don't trust that thing
ReplyDeleteSPY 15-min: there is now the new high - likely for the ((B)) wave of iv. Can go higher if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/EmGodE3e/
TJ
ES (25x3) current
ReplyDeletehttps://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_9bd3b4f19a2c6bdbc144f4718c8ddf07.png
SPY 15-min: now testing lower channel boundary; can go further lower, below ((A)) if it wants.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/N6b45vxG/
TJ
P.S. channel can be dropped all the way to ((B)) if needed - as long as wave iv does not overlap wave i. Should try to maintain 38 - 55% of wave iii. TJ.
DeleteBeans (wkly) - looking is seeing (if interested)
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/hkpcezv7ydlomr6/Watching.PNG/file
Caveat - small sample size, but interesting message - courtesy LPL Research
ReplyDeletehttps://www.mediafire.com/view/nawk6fpko149w0n/Notmany.PNG/file
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ