Per today's comments, since the Russell 2000 (RTY) futures made a new high invalidating a downward diagonal, and since the alternate count of an expanding diagonal downward in the ES futures invalidated, that leaves the original count and a small truncation at the low. The NQ futures did not truncate the low.
The current up wave is nearly uncountable, possibly still a zigzag. And it may be a B wave of a Flat, since it has reached within 90% of the high. It is now legal to be a flat 'by-the-rules'. And, yes, this wave 'may' indeed go over-the-top if it wishes.
More later. Have a good rest of the afternoon.
TraderJoe
thank you! makes complete sense with the enormous daily bear divergence and now double top on ES.
ReplyDeletewelcome!
DeleteYou might try something like this on the up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KI7yycyS/
Right now up wave 'can' be counted as a 'three' or a 'five'.
TJ
Smallish outside down candle on hrly (follow through [lack thereof] will determine if just pause or more).
ReplyDeleteFWIW .. the NQ futures went back to their 18-day SMA, and tailed off a bit. Back to 'the-line-in-the-sand'. Nothing yet says their up move is over.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/KcVWkmae/
TJ
P.S. from the high the NQ futures in the downward direction, pretty clearly count as ((a))-((b))-((c)). Could possibly be a diagonal ((a)) upward in progress.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8JccEalE/
In short, the waves are really split between markets.
TJ
A great example of why this technique does not work, you never know what the count is, and have tried to call a high too many times rather than looking at the long term up trend and say "the trend is your friend until it's over."
ReplyDeleteWhy are you here?
DeleteIf you actually followed my blog, you'd know that I have known what the count is since June with the post called 'Trillions'. We are in a Primary ((B)) wave up. And, it can be 'any three'. That is why there is so much local uncertainty. If you are a true Elliott Wave officiando, you'll get that. If you don't, then you're just here to disparage the blog and will be blocked in the future. Your choice...
DeleteSPX cfd (4hr) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bunm.png
Q’s - got a negative HD
DeleteMr, Mrket will let the proverbial cat out of the bag with a surrender of ES 3900 methinks. If that happens we will remedy that truncation T.J. referenced quickly.
DeleteBarrier Triangle still works.
ReplyDeletehttps://imgur.com/LjiIxGC
Hi,
ReplyDeleteNQ - Could this be counted as a completed a-b-c down forming A, now we are in B up and next week C down to complete a wave 2 down and zoom to new highs to start a wave 3 or is this too optimistic?
At the ES low of 3720.50 I showed how the down move could be counted as an w-x-y where y = w x 1.385 (or that alternatively it could be counted as an a-b-c where c = a x 1.239). Either way the fib relationships where too precise to ignore and my preference ES 3720.50 was to commence an upward count.
ReplyDeleteSince that time we have seen the broader market climb higher with some indices (including the DOW & SPX) and some futures making new all time highs, but not ES which failed by a whisker on Thursday (i.e. by just 0.75 pts) to match it's February ATH.
The wave counting, as acknowledged by ET, has been anything but straightforward. But, again, I believe it is possible to count the upward move from ES 3720.50 as a completed w-x-y where w closely approximates y or for exactness where w = y x 1.024.
As a result my preference now is to switch from an upward count to a downward count.
For those interested in the specifics of the upward w-x-y I cannot produce a chart but will attempt to delineate the count in regular type.
1. The w wave starts at 3720.50 and completes 27 x 1 hr candles later at 3866.25 for a move of 145.75 pts.
2. The x wave is a failed expanded flat starting at 3866.25 and completing 21 x 1 hr candles later at 3816.25 for a net move of 50.00 pts. For degree purposes this makes the x wave, as described here, the largest correction in both time and NET movement.
3. The y wave starts at 3816.25 and completes 67 x 1 hr candles later at 3958.50 for a move of 142.25 pts.
At the time of writing ES has traded as low as 3912.00 or 46.50 pts down from Thurday's high. This is getting rather close to the x wave's net move of 50.00 points. The first leg down of the x wave actually travelled 70.00 pts. Therefore for a indisputable "degree change" we would need to see ES trade below 3888.50 (i.e. 3958.50 minus 70.00).
One other thing worth noting is the significant change in the "spread" between futures and cash. At Thursday's high the difference was 1.77 pts (SPX 3960.27 vs ES 3958.50). Looking at the overnight CFD values (which are based on cash market values) don't be surprised to see the "spread" blow out to around 10.00 pts.
DeleteSpread typically narrows the week before expiration. Not indicative of much.
DeleteOf course, you are correct.
DeleteVery obvious already that, unless a diagonal develops, the market will remain anything but straightforward from an EW perspective. So far 3 waves down only. Now expecting 3 waves back up in the form of a retrace followed by lower levels next week. Fibs and trendlines are the basic tools needed along with perhaps a little imagination.
ReplyDeleteA look at the hrly -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvhQ.png
Good morning all. Here is the intraday wave counting screen with updated daily pivot points (classic calculation).
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Yzi87Xgd/
I am publishing this now because it is at it's 'most ambiguous'. For five waves down from the high - a lower low is needed without a higher local high, first. Similarly, a higher local high without downward overlap provides five small degree waves up.
The slow stochastic has turned up, which can be interpreted as an up signal, but the target of a return to the 18-per SMA was met.
TJ
wedge broke down overnight after that doubetop overthrow. Daily bear divergence is severe even on bitcoin.
ReplyDeleteA look at the Qs (4hr cash) -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvqv.png
I think the Q’s are vulnerable to a lower low.
DeleteMorning...Ive got this gut feeling..close to a medium term top..rates putting temp lid.
ReplyDeleteor perhaps it was Mexican food for dinner last night. Gl all
mmmhmmm.. the ole fake out. The second down wave this morning was not 1.618. Shorter. Now there is a higher local high, and what looks like five small degree expanding waves higher. Could still be a double zz down to extend correction or go over the high for Friday close.
ReplyDeleteThere was an article published from a German trading service saying that on March 15th possibly a cyclical or seasonal change in DAX trend may occur comparing historical chart patterns. Attached is a chart highlighting this statement (https://www.godmode-trader.de/analyse/dax-spezial-spektakulaerer-zyklischer-trendwendetermin-15-3-steht-an,9276439).
ReplyDeleteLooking for a turn on DAX as well -
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvPM.png
The market is so damn indecisive about down moves. Noone believes them at all.
ReplyDeleteBarrier Triangle still is valid and looks real nice with the EWO. Think it would be middle of next week for the e. Have a great weekend all.
ReplyDelete5min SPX cash - contracting..
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvzb.png
Just watched Tom Lee. He said the lows are in for the Q’s and has a SPX target of 4300. I know he’s a super bull but he’s been right more than wrong. 4300 happens to be a fib extension.
DeleteSo, for a double-zigzag lower, a channel near here should likely hold. There is already upward overlap in the futures.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uiVM71CR/
TJ
SPX (5min) - reg. hidden divergences (a quick reference) [if interested] -
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvGv.png
View my chart above and TJs (both 5min)- Perhaps you can see how these reg. hidden divergences can "fit" within wave analysis. :o)
DeleteSpot Gold update (4hr) - [if interested]
ReplyDeletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvGv.png
Wrong link - sorry, try this ..
Deletehttps://funkyimg.com/i/3bvNw.png
Looks to me like price simply consolidating recent gains. I am expecting a second close above 3900 points to an upside target of 4K sometime next week. Have a great week-end everyone!
DeleteIF that's really a triangle in the low volume corrective hash, then below the triangle might be interesting. Retrace is between 50 - 62%, futures are highly overlapping since the low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1QW47Hfp/
TJ
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DeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
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