Relevant Charts

Following on to yesterday's post, below is a close-up of the ES Daily chart and the likely wave structure  of the Minor B wave up, of what is likely a flat wave.

ES Futures - Daily - Minor B, Up

 

The B-3 wave could typically go up as high at the 1.382 external Fibonacci retrace of the recent A-3 wave down. It has already exceeded the 90% level, and therefore fully qualifies for the B-3 wave of a Flat. The B-3 wave should, like the label suggests be made up of three minute waves. Unfortunately, as it is a B wave, it could also truncate at any time (on an errant news story) as it has already made the requisite 100% level. But, this count is trying to be mindful that April 1 could see the typical beginning-of-month and beginning-of-quarter inflows.

Bearing in mind the wave labels above, that places the various wave degrees as follows (using the SPY 15-minute cash chart).

 

As far as I can tell, we made five-waves-up in a contracting wedge and on a declining Elliott Wave Oscillator. This morning we gapped down, made a lower low, and then began an all-day corrective sequence. 

If tomorrow is the end-of-the-month, and end-of-the-quarter 'window dressing', then the sloppiness could lead to a lower low for minuet (ii) of minute ((c)). If the wave structure caves in, instead, on additional difficult news - margin calls, etc. - then watch last week's low labeled as a 'Key Wave Marker'. It is possible that the Minor B wave high is already in, and that is the alternate on the chart. Still, we should count with the trend until that no longer seems possible.

Have a good start to the evening.

TraderJoe