Here's the ES Daily chart. There was a minor higher high day, which we were expecting, and then towards the close price began falling off in a possible Tuesday "turn-around" which were were also expecting. We tried to count five waves up in cash. It may have truncated. We were also expecting that possibility and labeled it in advance on intraday charts.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Minor B |
As a smaller degree wave, the minute ((y)) wave should likely not become longer in time than the Minor C wave of (W). If it does, we'll deal with it at that time. Overlap on wave minute ((w)) of Minor B would be one step in the confirmation of the onset of Minor C wave down of Intermediate (X).
Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe
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ReplyDeleteSo sorry that you have to deal with that T.J...lots of troubled souls roaming the web...
ReplyDeleteSo, would a move below (b) of ((y)) seal the deal for end of minor B? If not, what would?
ReplyDeleteThanks
If the first step in the confirmation process is overlapping ((w)), then the second step in the process is trading below (b). The third step in the process, unfortunately is trading below A. You might not 'like' this answer. But it is objective, and requires no opinions.
DeleteHi,
ReplyDeleteThe previous C wave and the current B wave have taken the longer less probable path which has forced you to move your labelling to the right and the get accused of calling tops too often. Should you regularly post a chart with a few of the possible Fibonacci outcomes so that people see on the chart what you mean when you suggest to remain patient?
There is a wave C down coming up and impatient people will soon ask you have we reached the bottom yet since we are X points below 2900? I’m trying to help you make your life easier! Thank you for your daily report!
Here is the intraday wave-counting screen including updated daily pivot points (classic calculation) and nearest fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/ri-n3
TJ
Measures like an expanding diag.
DeleteExcellent work...thank you.
ReplyDeleteThanks, and you're welcome.
DeleteIs it possible that (W) could be Wave 1, and the C move to (X) C of 2? Thanks for the educating you do.
ReplyDeleteHi Tim, looking at the chart, I'm sure you can assess the same. Unless the wave is counted this way, it winds up with 'time degree' violations where minute waves become longer in time than their corresponding previous Minor waves in the same direction.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/g63YhTuo/
TJ
Here is short-term 5-min cash SPY, currently:
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rj48j
TJ
..the blue dashed lines are the "base-channel", and a second micro wave of iii down should not pop above that potential channel line. The first micro wave down is an expanding diagonal, and downward overlap on the prior up wave set has occurred already.
Delete..as a sub-wave two, it fails the test, so may still be part of the larger wave ii.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rj56w
TJ
This is where i get confused i can swear that i saw 3 waves between your labels B (325) and C (324). Can you explain thanks
ReplyDeleteCan now be counted like this, but acceleration lower is needed for anything significant. Watch lower trend line, and see if it back-tests.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rj5-d
TJ
..there is lots of overlap already.
DeleteMaybe the triangle is not finished after iii
Delete@jack .. as far as I can tell, that might be a time degree violation.
DeleteFirst chart update is the SPY 5-min.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rj6sd
Second chart update is the ES 30-min Intraday screen. Including fractal update.
https://invst.ly/rj6u4
Note the slow stochastic is rolling over, but price is still above the 18-period, and the price is sitting on the daily pivot point. So bias and momentum are fighting each other at the moment.
TJ
SPY has broken the uptrend line ...
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rj742
TJ
ES 30-min has closed below the 18-period SMA intraday. So, intraday bias and momentum are now in gear to the down side, but are fighting the larger daily bias and momentum.
Deleteyw
ReplyDeletelooks like one more wave up to get close to 3300. NQ may invalidate that double top everyone is talking about (and has stops above)
ReplyDeleteLooks like we've retraced to .90 yet again. Prior high has been honored (so far).
ReplyDeleteThere is a new post started for the next day.
ReplyDelete