In its infinite wisdom, and for whatever reason, the market as measured by the ES E-mini futures, and the SPY cash index, made a lower low than the (b) wave this morning, and got down to the 90% level - which was also the 18-day SMA. We called out the 18-day SMA when it occurred.
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| ES Futures - 2 hr - 90% Down |
Then, no one wanted to be short for FANG earnings after the bell, and the market surpassed the (c) wave high. A lot of the futures increase happened after the bell, and does not show up in cash - which is why futures are shown. To continue a downward count, price must not exceed the invalidation level. If it does an alternate will apply, perhaps a continuation of the (z) wave upward of Minor B.
Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe
Here is the updated intraday wave counting screen which can be used overnight or tomorrow, with updated pivot points, and fractals. So far, there are only three waves down from the high, and upward overlap.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rmpnf
TJ
..and it is worth noting that there is a gap in the futures at the overnight session open.
DeletePrice consolidating this morning in a tight range, 18 period B-bands compressing 30 minute time frame, price currently trading below Volume Weighted Average Price(VWAP).
ReplyDeleteGold 1hr diagonal I was watching has not busted yet but has clear problem. 4 being longer in time than 2 and ewo divergence busted on this overnight high.
ReplyDeleteSee below @ 09:58 EDT
DeleteTJ
Slight revision to the intraday screen as the 18-day SMA has moved up a bit.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rmzuj
TJ
..overnight ES gap up filled twice.
DeleteReminder: more econ reports at 09:45 EDT, and 10:00 EDT.
ReplyDeleteOne more revision to the intraday screen; according to broker quotes, the original pivots from TradingView are calculated incorrectly. We did just touch the daily PP. Sorry for the confusion. Not sure why TradingView is doing it differently.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rmz-8
TJ
(MW) 09:47 EDT Chicago PMI rises to 51.9 in July, topping expectations
ReplyDeleteES downward overlap on 3,242
ReplyDeleteIn 4-Hr GOLD something like this might fit the time sequences better. And it provides lots of time to monitor and plan.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rm-4q
TJ
(MW) 10:00 EDT Final U.S. consumer sentiment reading for July dips to 72.5 from initial 72.9
ReplyDelete(MW)
ReplyDeleteApple's stock split impact on the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Because the Dow DJIA, -0.07% is a price-weighted index, the scheduled split at the end of next month means that Apple will move from the most influential component of the 30-member blue-chip index to perhaps the 15th- or 16th-most significant member of the index.
TJ
ES 30-min 50% retrace on yesterday's advance.
ReplyDeleteES touches 62% retrace, and nears 18-day SMA "battle for the line in the sand".
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rm-jj
It 'looks' like three-waves up which could either finish the up move as a (y) wave of minute ((ii)), or form a larger contracting diagonal to nick over the highs, again.
Reminder that today is the last trading day of the month - with the associated 'window dressing', and Monday would be the first day of the new month with possible inflows from 401k's, pension funds, company bonuses, dividend reinvestment plans, etc.
TJ
The (y) of minute ((ii)) would be just shy of 10% (in terms of time) vs (w). That would seem somewhat disproportional. Would/could that be an issue?
DeleteThanks
..could be .. and so I'm giving it time, but likely not a 'rule breaker'.
DeleteES 30-min; two consecutive closes, or cc, below the band; odds about 4% of staying below the band.
ReplyDelete(Rule of thumb - 1 cc, 5%, 2 cc 4%, 3 cc - 3%, 4 cc - 2%, 5 cc - 1%, etc.)
TJ
Morning Joe..Price action so far is less than impressive..as all are aware can change in an instant. Watching the action in the 10yr..boosted a bit by the early numbers, it will dictate my short position today, cant hold short over a weekend. Gl Joe, and all
ReplyDeletehi Roger.. gl too
DeleteTrendline resistance on /ES held last night, I'll stay short for the weekend. NQ looks like a complete ABC after impulse. Thanks for your updates!
ReplyDelete..welcome Roberto ..I still like your attitude ;)
DeleteTJ
Sure I can understand your logic..1st of the month as Joe mentioned could give incentive to keep the indexes strong. Suggestion, watch the 10yr Vol, price movement, IMO if it approaches the high yield of the day on decent vol, $s will most likely be flowing into equities =sell bonds... to keep them up for either inflows or someone knows something about the stimulus, stays weak, well that's the other situation. Either way best of luck
ReplyDeleteES 30-min 3 consecutive closes below the band drops odds to 3% of next close being below the band. Not impossible, just lower odds.
ReplyDelete15min measures like expanding leading diag from last night's peak. Would now be in third/c wave. Thoughts?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I agree there 'can be'. Yet, a lower low before a higher high is needed as 'post-pattern-behavior' to identify it as leading.
Delete..and can be counted as complete in this way ..
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/pVXpf2ty/
TJ
Thanks. I was actually seeing a smaller one (ending where your ((3)) did), thus I have a lower low. But yours works nicely (likely better).
DeleteThanks again.
ES 30 min .. first close inside the band .. resets the number of consecutive closes.
ReplyDeleteLower low, (but looks like it could still be part of ((5)) in diag.)?
ReplyDeleteNote: Im looking at cfd contract.
DeleteThis potential 2nd leg down in ((5)) of diag. would help spend more time to better relate to ((3)) (in terms of elapsed time). Just an observation.
Delete..just saying, I think the first leg down creates a degree violation as an 'a' wave because it is longer in price than ((3)). I may be incorrect but when I glanced at it, that's what stuck out at me.
DeleteIt is indeed longer. Ive wondered why this would be an issue when you have expanding waves. It would seem this could occur, but perhaps Im incorrect on that. Anyway, would you then see the lower low as poss part of exp flat?
DeleteThanks
yes, see below @2:03 pm, ET
Delete1.618 reached on /ES. https://invst.ly/rn21f
ReplyDeleteHere is the updated intraday wave-counting screen, including updated fractals.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rn29n
Price got down to the 18-day SMA, and the S1 pivot, and found some support there with a candle close below the lower intraday Bollinger Band. The fifteen minute leading diagonal was confirmed as leading with lower prices, but it only might be the 'b' wave of a flat downward, as it only traveled 150% of a three-wave 'a' wave up, and closed on the 138% mark.
TJ
It might look something like this if Monday is to see inflows.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/fEqfXWft/
TJ
..and here is a 'very' short term 1-minute chart; make of it what you will.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rn2g2
TJ
..now there is a 1.618 upward wave ..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rn2wb
TJ
..'minimum' flat expectations fulfilled; can go longer.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete