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| S&P500 Cash - 5 minute - Intraday |
A wave counting stop should be placed at the high, as that is the only formal point of actual invalidation at this time.
I apologize to some extent for putting the comments on moderation only. Apparently there just some people who don't want to see others succeed, who think they know it all, who aren't interested in learning together, or who are jealous that others can handle the concept of probability or uncertainty and they can't.
Sooner or later when the spam filters catch up with them, perhaps things will get back to normal.
Reasonable comments and questions will still be posted, albeit with a brief delay.
Have a good start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Effective immediately, users will not be able to post using the 'Unknown' account. You can try. You won't get through. They are all going to spam.
ReplyDeleteDo you have a monthly or quarterly EW count?
ReplyDeleteThat was published here:
Deletehttp://studyofcycles.blogspot.com/2020/06/trillions.html
TJ
What happened to the count down from assumed c of B on the futures?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Cash (not futures) made a new high, likely invalidating it.
DeleteI may have asked it the wrong way. How do you see the count in futures down from yesterday's peak (regardless of how that peak is labeled)? Hopefully that better conveys the question.
DeleteThanks
@GW .. chart is below at 11:13 EDT.
DeleteHere is the intraday wave counting screen. Because futures got over the previous high in the after-hours, this can be seen as an extension of the Minor B wave, probably so the ES can make an expanded flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rgc0i
Note the Upper Daily Bollinger Band (UDBB) and R2 pivot are quite close. Price is currently over BOTH the intraday and daily 18-period averages.
TJ
..to paraphrase Ira, "one does not buy 'new' positions over the upper daily BB. One might sell to take some (or all) profits. Some can be left to ride. The Smart Money will likely be taking some profits at the upper band, as there is only ~5% chance of being over it." This is not trading or investment advice - just a paraphrase of Ira's guidelines.
DeleteP.S. Broker quotes are showing a large gap in the futures, up, on the half-hour chart. Investing.com is not showing anywhere near that gap.
DeleteES now down to intraday 18-period MA, and R1 pivot.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rgcis
TJ
ET, do you have a count from yesterday's low? What I think I am seeing is in 5 of 5 on futures, but 5 of 3 on cash?
ReplyDeleteJust an extension of the Minor B wave overall, on the 4-hr chart, so far.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/lgBYxe1h/
TJ
Thanks for quick reply. I think it has resolved with a flat 4 in futures to sync with cash. Now looking for wave 5 up this afternoon and decent chance of leaving an island top afterward.
DeleteHi Joe
ReplyDeleteI first read your charts on Tonys blog years ago. I don't know how anyone can rely on technicals or waves with the world suppling an endless amount of liquidity..I say buy Gold.
Thanks for your efforts here and best of luck..Roger
Hi Roger. Some people would plot 4-hr technicals like this. What do you see wrong with it? Do technicals always work? Heck no. They throw off false signals - particularly on smaller time frames.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rgeas
But your comment suggests you may be looking for one thing, and others looking for something else. You may be looking for an investing time frame. Others may be looking for a swing-trading time frame. Others may be looking for a day-trading time frame. Others may not be sure what they are looking for. Only one thing is for sure - I could not, and can not satisfy everyone. Best of luck to you, too.
TJ
I certainly whole-heartedly agree with the possibility of the endless flood of liquidity
Deletemucking up the wave patterns thus making accurate counts challenging. Nonetheless EWT rules still apply and there is always a number that tells you a proposed count is wrong. I don't recall ever seeing a longer series of corrective waves...
@tachy..the 'length' of the corrective waves 'may' be due to the degree of the wave structure. Primary ((4)) corrected from 2000 - 2009, or nine years. Again, that was 'nine' (9) years. IF this is Primary ((B)), then so far it has corrected only from 2018 - 2020, or just two years. So, unless not alive from 2000 then there has, indeed, been a longer series of corrective waves that you - or most of us - have experienced.
DeleteIm speaking of longer time frames..I know this senseless stream of liquidity will end badly..when has always been the question... I find gold and some bit coin for a longer term holding...can anyone do true discovery for fundamental investing, I sure cant, assets are distorted. Trading a different story for sure. Well EOM almost here and another round of helicopter will be dropped. :) Enjoy it while you can.
Delete.the 'length' of the corrective waves 'may' be due to the degree of the wave structure. Primary ((4)) corrected from 2000 - 2009, or nine years. Again, that was 'nine' (9) years. IF this is Primary ((B)), then so far it has corrected only from 2018 - 2020, or just two years. So, unless not alive from 2000 then there has, indeed, been a longer series of corrective waves that you - or most of us - have experienced.
DeleteTo the above Joe..with all due respect..if the liquidity stop along with the bond buying programs...how would it be that could be charted..my point is who knows... who or what will come next..I sure don't.
ATH???
ReplyDeleteHere is the intraday wave-counting screen at the moment. Investing.com is falling behind in quotes. They are 3 - 5 points off at any time now.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rge7p
TJ
ES 30-min, now into the overnight open gap window.
ReplyDeleteTo the account known as dp .. who keeps trying to harass my account. You should know that as of this time none of your messages needs to be read by me. They are all going to spam. However, they are all being stored as proof of your continued harassment. If you do not cease and desist by 5 PM today, the next step will be reporting your IP to Google for action, up to and including suspension of all of your account privileges for spam, and for threatening my account. SO, again, the more you send, the more evidence you are putting into the folder.
ReplyDeleteJoe..please know it was never my intention to criticize your work..just a comment on my own thinking after more than 40 years of market exposure. :)
ReplyDeleteRoger, we're good. 40 yrs! You must have have some stories to tell. Congrats!
DeleteThis is all I have at the moment: two sets of zigzags downward, with the second set longer in price and time than the first set. This is followed by an up wave which is longer in price and time, than the first intervening up wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rgfms
TJ
Possible exp diagonal in progress?
ReplyDeleteES Expanding Diagonal?
ReplyDeleteAll I can say is that the potential Elliott Wave patterns can provide a clear invalidation point. But, it is sometimes so close to the high ..
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rggjb
TJ
..one more leg of a diagonal ((c)) .. in brown ..or I think the pattern busts..
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rggu7
TJ
..may have failed .. diagonals as ((c)) waves are allowed to fail.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rgh07
TJ
Could it be wxy up, with x as exp flat?
Delete..ES 5-min now below the 3,207 ((B)) wave fractal low.
Delete..I would move the invalidation level down to 3,122 b/c either that ((C)) wave failed or it didn't. If it didn't we made another flat with a potential upward resolution. See chart below.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rgh5y
TJ
..to qualify as a potential diagonal, this next down leg must cross 3,183.50, and it should take more time than the prior leg down. Do not be surprised if a b wave, up, throws in quite a steep retrace.
DeleteInteresting that 3183.50 target would close last night's opening gap.
Delete..((c)) wave invalidated.
Delete..can be seen as the larger, whippy, flat option; just odds of a diagonal begin to fall off rapidly from here, if there are any further highs, and the downward wave v cycle has to start all over again.
Deletehttps://invst.ly/rghlu
TJ
So, cash just doesn't 'look' like a potential diagonal. Even though nothing has formally invalidated yet, 'maybe' we are getting a triangle, instead.
ReplyDeletehttps://invst.ly/rghri
TJ
..yesterday's "running b wave" would have been a 'running ii'nd wave' auguring in the overnight strength. It was a 'running wave' for some reason.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDelete